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June Is Bustin' Out All Over - Pattern and Model Discussion


HimoorWx
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Little under-the-radar facet about next week's sensible weather in general ... it's different this time in that a day of warm departures is not immediately being chopped down to 48 F  like so many of the recent spring's past.  This one recedes back to above normal actually... The Euro synoptics don't exactly make it cool after that hot day and fwiw ... GFS machine numbers stay 5 to 7+ on climo...  So it's not just a very warm Sunday followed by a hot Monday... it's a warm week there - 

we'll see...  

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Cold, raw and damp day under the NW upslope flow.  In winter the mountains would've picked up 6-12" but this time of year, no thanks.

Moisture has been rotating into the mountains all day and it was sheet rains at work on NW wind with temps in the 50s.  Down here in town it's been more mist, drizzle and occasionally light rain.

High of 61F today and now back into the 50s at home, closing the windows and doors slamming shut. 

Looks like the NW flow downslope regions salvaged a better day.  And up near CAR it's still April.

ake8Zco.png

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BOX has a CT and merrimack valley fetish. First of all, a river at 100’ with mean elevation 100-200’ around it, isn’t really a geographical feature like a valley. Second, those west winds will make all low el spots a furnace, away from south coast. One could argue most oppressive stuff may be where dews are higher to the south. We’ll probably mix out some on Monday as is usually the case with W-WSW flow.  

Fly in oitment would be any debris clouds from leftover MCS. That is possible Sunday night. 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

BOX has a CT and merrimack valley fetish. First of all, a river at 100’ with mean elevation 100-200’ around it, isn’t really a geographical feature like a valley. Second, those west winds will make all low el spots a furnace, away from south coast. One could argue most oppressive stuff may be where dews are higher to the south. We’ll probably mix out some on Monday as is usually the case with W-WSW flow.  

Fly in oitment would be any debris clouds from leftover MCS. That is possible Sunday night. 

Yup..in fact, one should expect that. 

I didn't have a chance to circle back on that web-site you suggested, re the Euro mass-fields/theta-e gradients but I take your word for it.  Monday, and back on that infamous day in 2011... that's what happens around here. It's really sort of similar/microcosm of west TX dry-line phenomenon (though soil moisture also plays a roll there...) 

Otherwise, .. 00z Euro suggests a warm week, post the hot pop.  It has the front merely dying ... or some sort of frontalysis tendency anyway. Enough so that CAA is very weak and Tuesday is still sporting 850 mb around 14 or15 C ... With winds off shore and the highest sun angles of the year beaming down like the emitter of a MW oven... I wonder if regardless of machine guidance/MOS sourcing ...that day still flirts with 90 under such superb potential and more likely a very high launch pad left over from the previous day. 

I have a hunch that we don't end Tuesday with much convective fan-fair... As is typically the case, that kind of heat comes with a lot of CIN lidding ...and so the heat has to sort of painfully recede off in those situations.  It seems almost cruel in that way...the big heat doesn't seem to end with the poetic thunder bombs that would be sooo elixir ... 

Anyway, the Euro doesn't get the 850 mb fields down anywhere close to 10 C through the end of the week, and in fact, ...the goo-goo ga-ga range poises a truely memorable hot blast with 22+C plume N of Lake Superior poise to come down on a WNW dragon statement.  That's really how we get our utmost hottest stuff...  maximizing kadabatic flow under that schit... It's beyond D10 so it's obviously not going to verify without a lot of dumb luck ...but, the point is, this is pretty damn hot run... Should pile up the anomalies in the dailies and flip the script on the month if all that were to work out. 

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Mmm... even the GFS's 00z run (I'm getting caught up..) trended significantly toward a warmer week - though as usual, it's details zealousness is using those nuances to sensibly mute it.. But, the heights in the deep layer are much higher/vestigial with heat-dome type ridging in the western OV later next week compared to prior runs.  

interesting..

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

She coming

 

I'll take the under on any odds above zero for southern Franklin County, Maine, the northerly extent of that map's colors.  Farmington has not reached even 95 since 2002, has not gone above it since 1995, and has hit triples just twice since 1911 - only once (hot Saturday 1975) at its current obs site.

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

I'll take the under on any odds above zero for southern Franklin County, Maine, the northerly extent of that map's colors.  Farmington has not reached even 95 since 2002, has not gone above it since 1995, and has hit triples just twice since 1911 - only once (hot Saturday 1975) at its current obs site.

Heh...not to be a wise-acre ...but those odds are like < 10 % ...which is pretty bleak to begin with.   Not much of an exertion to well-being and confidences to take the under - hahaha

But I know what you mean...  

Frankly, I find the whole 100 thing to be fascinating perhaps more so on this "potential" for down here, than normal.   Firstly ...yes, I'm a weirdo when it comes to 100-type big heat and find the subject matter fascinating meteorologically.  Because of that fascination, I have been acutely aware of those events in the past enough to have a pretty big experiential database in memory to draw upon and I can say... it's unusual to make 100 F in such short order. 

Usually/typically...there's a run-up of a couple days or more before that happens.   We need some relatively rare circumstances to align/time just so to get it done, and I'm pretty sure longevity helps.... I've seen more predictions for 101 end up 97 than 101 forecasts actually verify (...regional-scoped) over the decades.  An ill-timed cirrus streak and a butterfly keg party is all it takes to stop short.  Unlike Dallas, where the sun shines straight down and cuts radiation through clouds like acidic taco bell through toilet tissue and they can still do it under pal ceilings, ...you pretty much need the emitter of the MW oven clear and open up our way to get it done.  Nor do we have land 1000's of miles all around us ...such that if it happens at a similar latitude out in the Plains, they can still pull it off by being next door where it's open skies...  

Bottom line...we have more limitations to overcome.  Sometimes we do ... which, should make it more interesting when that happens.  

But I'm digressing...wtf was I oh ...but usually 100 heat happens like, Day 1... 88/70  ... that night, stays in the mid 70s in the urbane centers and dews out to 68 in the bogs.  The next day, 96/71...and that night is the truly disgusting 2nd floor stick to the sheets smelly hell for low income urban structures.... Talking 83 for a low ..and that is outside the windows of said abodes.   Then... it's 101 and making headlines...  just before the BD ends it all later that evening... or whatever.  But, it's weird to do this 87-100-81 thing...  I'm curious how often that sort of "spiked" result has happened -  I don't think that is very often. 

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Big heat and humidity coming.  That's a given.  What are the chances of airmass T storms on Monday? I'm looking at qpf potentials as the region gets drier and drier.  Guess it all depends on the fropa timing and when convection would initiate each day,  Sunday late up in NNE  and Monday/Tuesday in SNE.   Both Euro and GFS give NNE the rain they don't need but will the line regenerate in SNE?  Here are 120 hour total rainfall on both models.  

gfs.jpg

Untitled.jpg

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35 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Low 90s for a day, meh.

Mm... depends.

Euro has it cooking clear to the Canal ... in fact the 12z run has a uniquely perfect set up to acetylene SE Mass potentially the hottest it's been in decades... 21 C 850 with a heat depression bending the wind WNW down ur way that afternoon with no clouds. 

Good luck holding to 92 if that pans out that way. 

Not saying it will and ur wrong -per se... but it depends which guidance one employs. 

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incidentally ...the Euro brings Bob's low 90s type heat back for next weekend ... 

But, again, the 88 to 100 to 83 or whatever, that's rare?  usually... it's an 84-93-96-100-89 bootleg high followed by a 40 pt afternoon NE crash type of party...  

This thing wants to bring a single day of 95-100 heat, then 83 to 87 for the whole week... it's kind of unusual behavior.  So, in that sense ... limiting to 94 or so on Monday might look better to the IRS on corporate quarterly earnings reports - heh

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53 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Big heat and humidity coming.  That's a given.  What are the chances of airmass T storms on Monday? I'm looking at qpf potentials as the region gets drier and drier.  Guess it all depends on the fropa timing and when convection would initiate each day,  Sunday late up in NNE  and Monday/Tuesday in SNE.   Both Euro and GFS give NNE the rain they don't need but will the line regenerate in SNE?  Here are 120 hour total rainfall on both models.  

Don't need?  Did you get a multi-inch downpour that I haven't heard about?  Those two maps put MBY in 0.2" (GFS) and 0.5" (Euro), not exactly a deluge.  Maybe I'm misinterpreting something.

And I should've been more clear on my "take the under" post - I'd have said the same if the odds had been 0.1%.  IMO, Mr. Fisher's map should not have gone an inch north of IZG, if that far.

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2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Don't need?  Did you get a multi-inch downpour that I haven't heard about?  Those two maps put MBY in 0.2" (GFS) and 0.5" (Euro), not exactly a deluge.  Maybe I'm misinterpreting something.

And I should've been more clear on my "take the under" post - I'd have said the same if the odds had been 0.1%.  IMO, Mr. Fisher's map should not have gone an inch north of IZG, if that far.

Tamarack,  Actually before I edited my post I was going to say N VT and N NH.  Maine never gets rain anymore!

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Had 0.36" yesterday.  For this spring, that's a deluge.

Enjoyed .38" over the past 2 days.  Brings me to 2.38" since April 25th.  My pond has gone completely dry a few times over the year but always in late summer.  Unless we get some good T storms early next week we have only 1-2 weeks of water left.

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3 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Big heat and humidity coming.  That's a given.  What are the chances of airmass T storms on Monday? I'm looking at qpf potentials as the region gets drier and drier.  Guess it all depends on the fropa timing and when convection would initiate each day,  Sunday late up in NNE  and Monday/Tuesday in SNE.   Both Euro and GFS give NNE the rain they don't need but will the line regenerate in SNE?  Here are 120 hour total rainfall on both models.  

gfs.jpg

Untitled.jpg

 

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

Don't need?  Did you get a multi-inch downpour that I haven't heard about?  Those two maps put MBY in 0.2" (GFS) and 0.5" (Euro), not exactly a deluge.  Maybe I'm misinterpreting something.

And I should've been more clear on my "take the under" post - I'd have said the same if the odds had been 0.1%.  IMO, Mr. Fisher's map should not have gone an inch north of IZG, if that far.

This part of NNE will take any rain that other parts don’t need. 

2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Tamarack,  Actually before I edited my post I was going to say N VT and N NH.  Maine never gets rain anymore!

 

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57 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Enjoyed .38" over the past 2 days.  Brings me to 2.38" since April 25th.  My pond has gone completely dry a few times over the year but always in late summer.  Unless we get some good T storms early next week we have only 1-2 weeks of water left.

It is getting pretty bad down here.  I just put in a few kale starts and my garden is like talcum powder.    NNE has done well in comparison. 

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I'm looking forward to a couple more humid, summery evenings.  Just had to close the windows and sliding glass doors because of the radiational cooling.

Dropped from the 70s to 50s in two hours with the sun going down...like a vacuum into space, heat just does not linger in these mountain valleys without a strong southerly flow or thick clouds.

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23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm looking forward to a couple more humid, summery evenings.  Just had to close the windows and sliding glass doors because of the radiational cooling.

Dropped from the 70s to 50s in two hours with the sun going down...like a vacuum into space, heat just does not linger in these mountain valleys without a strong southerly flow or thick clouds.

56 here after a fantastic late afternoon. Nice rain early to feed the gardens. Summer, game on .Lets do this

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