Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: Big heat is another SNE faux weather event Mm... that's a bit austere but ..I also suspect you're using that for sarcasm - We've had 'big heat' - and by that ... we mean 95+ with HI's. The expression is obviously subjective - some may need 102 ... some 90 ... whatever. But, we've had our share either way - If one is frustrated because they want bigger numbers and they seem elusive ... that's not really because it's "New England" ... it's for other idiosyncrasies in the general circulation means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm... that's a bit austere but ..I also suspect you're using that for sarcasm - We've had 'big heat' - and by that ... we mean 95+ with HI's. The expression is obviously subjective - some may need 102 ... some 90 ... whatever. But, we've had our share either way - If one is frustrated because they want bigger numbers and they seem elusive ... that's not really because it's "New England" ... it's for other idiosyncrasies in the general circulation means I'm talking 105 at BDL for one day...that's big heat. 95 for two days ain't big heat....95 for 10 days is big heat. see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, Whineminster said: I'm talking 105 at BDL for one day...that's big heat. 95 for two days ain't big heat....95 for 10 days is big heat. see? They've never been above 103F. Who uses 105F as a threshold for "big heat"? I would say 95F+ qualifies for most north of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 28 minutes ago, dendrite said: They've never been above 103F. Who uses 105F as a threshold for "big heat"? I would say 95F+ qualifies for most north of DC. For most of the wooded interior with rolling hills, Big heat can be anything above 85F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 33 minutes ago, dendrite said: They've never been above 103F. Who uses 105F as a threshold for "big heat"? I would say 95F+ qualifies for most north of DC. I'd say north of NYC. Well 'big heat' is subjective....there's no actual definition. Yeah I agree 95+...but it has to be for a few days. One day of 96 sandwiched between 87 is not big hit guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm... that's a bit austere but ..I also suspect you're using that for sarcasm - We've had 'big heat' - and by that ... we mean 95+ with HI's. The expression is obviously subjective - some may need 102 ... some 90 ... whatever. But, we've had our share either way - If one is frustrated because they want bigger numbers and they seem elusive ... that's not really because it's "New England" ... it's for other idiosyncrasies in the general circulation means I think he's more saying faux weather in that its less likely and can be lumped in with what many on this forum call faux weather (I think Ray 40/70 started these terms)... icing events on the coastal plain, inverted troughs, WINDEX events, rain changing back to Snow before ending, high-end severe events, etc. They all happen from time to time but no where near the frequency that the mid-range models like to show. Banking on them or hyping them can often lead to disappointment. I agree with him in the way the term is used on these forums...exercise skepticism until short lead times and even then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, Whineminster said: I'd say north of NYC. Well 'big heat' is subjective....there's no actual definition. Yeah I agree 95+...but it has to be for a few days. One day of 96 sandwiched between 87 is not big hit guy. For you at 1,000ft though that sounds like really big heat. Unless the assumption is when talking about this stuff we are discussing sea level ASOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: For you at 1,000ft though that sounds like really big heat. Unless the assumption is when talking about this stuff we are discussing sea level ASOS. Yeah I'm talking like middle to lower CT Valley, Housatonic Valley etc. I only hit 90 a few times a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 16 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Yeah I'm talking like middle to lower CT Valley, Housatonic Valley etc. I only hit 90 a few times a year. It's all relative to the climo of a particular location. A week of 85° in Halifax NS would be a big hit . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 44 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Yeah I'm talking like middle to lower CT Valley, Housatonic Valley etc. I only hit 90 a few times a year. Some years you might not hit it at all... happened to me a couple of years back iirc Other years we can get multiple heat waves (3 days of 90+), but those are also rare in our area. The Merrimack Valley can also be a big heat area for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: I think he's more saying faux weather in that its less likely and can be lumped in with what many on this forum call faux weather (I think Ray 40/70 started these terms)... icing events on the coastal plain, inverted troughs, WINDEX events, rain changing back to Snow before ending, high-end severe events, etc. They all happen from time to time but no where near the frequency that the mid-range models like to show. Banking on them or hyping them can often lead to disappointment. I agree with him in the way the term is used on these forums...exercise skepticism until short lead times and even then... Oh I got the sarcasm - I said as much ... I suppose by 'faux' we may as well just call it what it really is then? "having one's expectations wrong" ...because there's nothing really 'faux' about it if they are real.. That's really what it's all about - if one is realistic about their chances for x-y-z, ...based upon the two frontiers of education and climate, then there would probably be less grousing in the public opinion et al - haha. yeah... tornadoes are faux ...says the 90 heads that still haven't returned from orbit after being launched back on June 9 of 1953 I guess ultimately... it's usefully nill to comment on it; and a waste of time to correct people for commenting on it, too. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: For most of the wooded interior with rolling hills, Big heat can be anything above 85F. That's my threshold. Last year we reached it in May, early June, and late September, but never in between. Thanks to hard-working leaves all around, hottest in 20+ years here is a modest 93, notched in July and September 2002. The 91 last May was my first 90+ since June of 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 I'm going with 91,97 at BDL for Sunday, Monday. Probably 90/96 across the river and a bit north here at home. Point and click is a modest 92 here for Monday with partly sunny skies but I think we will do better here in the valley south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 Summer arriving on schedule, We beach, we pool, we wake and bake, we grill we chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 I think we’ll see some 98-99’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 Installing Sat , haven't needed it yet, pretty much on schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 Monday is looking like an inferno. If we avoid debris clouds the BDL tarmac could make a run at 99-100. We'll see if it holds. Looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 46 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: Monday is looking like an inferno. If we avoid debris clouds the BDL tarmac could make a run at 99-100. We'll see if it holds. Looking forward to it. Classic west wind DSD. Dews go down as temps go up when you mix out. If no debris clouds (and there is the chance there will be clouds) 100 possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 Big change from today to Monday. Today we may struggle to break 60F during the daytime with upslope rain on cyclonic NW flow, then could be upper 80s on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 Looks like a Sunday morning install. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Big change from today to Monday. Today we may struggle to break 60F during the daytime with upslope rain on cyclonic NW flow, then could be upper 80s on Monday. Yeah, may just crack 90F here on Monday and that's it for "big heat". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 cocadoodlewless delight today, wow wow wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Classic west wind DSD. Dews go down as temps go up when you mix out. If no debris clouds (and there is the chance there will be clouds) 100 possible. Mini July 2011. Soupy SWrly Sunday (like 7/21/11) followed by the windshift and downsloping big heat Monday (like 7/22/11). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 28 minutes ago, dendrite said: Mini July 2011. Soupy SWrly Sunday (like 7/21/11) followed by the windshift and downsloping big heat Monday (like 7/22/11). I was just thinking about that one... That was a fascinating day for theta-e gradient. The day started evenly distributed ... ALB ...RUT I remember those sites with toasty DPs, but NYC was like 74. Every one's temperature went nuts and at 11:45 AM it was already 97 F at a few sites from S NH south... Then, early afternoon ...the DP just vanished out along the Mohawk Trail and that advective swiftly to the coast. FIT went from near 70 and upper 90s, to a 3 or 4 pm 102 and DPs slashed down to 50 or something ...not sure on those numbers exactly, but it was pretty dramatic. Meanwhile, NY and Long Island stayed upper 90s to low 100s with DPs of 72 so... the I guess in terms of raw torridity ...we were 'save by' plume vagaries ... I'm not sure why that happened, but I suspect you and Scott have the right idea about wind trajectories and kadabatic motions ...and being that there may have been more conveyor-centric gradient blowing up our way, that helped more mixing - By the way, I left work at 5 pm in Westborough Mass (at the time..) and headed E on Rt 9's brick and mortar hallway that cuts through urban malls and massive black tops of Framingham ...Natick and at times the traffic managed 50 mph, at others times stopped in lines by lights, and regardless of whatever the DP was at no time in that voyage did the dash diodes dip below 106 F ... Yet, of course NWS propers were putting up 101s. That's typical ...it seems the standardizing NWS techs often do part company with common every day experience, huh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 Tippy go on weather.us and fire up the ECMWF TDs for Massachusetts. Check out the gradient pooling in SE MA, where SW winds meet up with the W winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tippy go on weather.us and fire up the ECMWF TDs for Massachusetts. Check out the gradient pooling in SE MA, where SW winds meet up with the W winds. k, ...i can't now.. i have meeting in 2.1 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 with ~15 yrs of data imby, that was the hottest day by about 2 degrees and by far the warmest night. Pretty cool seeing the DPs mix out after 1 pm that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Big change from today to Monday. Today we may struggle to break 60F during the daytime with upslope rain on cyclonic NW flow, then could be upper 80s on Monday. My forecast for Monday is 77 and rain... is our forecast not updated or just how it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, alex said: My forecast for Monday is 77 and rain... is our forecast not updated or just how it is? Alex, Just looked at the GFS. Boston bakes at near 100F. Warm front moves into NNE and then stalls with lots of showers/storms. Then moves back down as a cold front. So NNE never gets to enjoy the heat. It's 4 days away so the front placement is key for us up here while its more of a slam dunk down in SNE. Here are high temps for Monday as predicted from 6Z GFS Also got to enjoy the first T storm of the year around midnight last night. Lots of lightning and thunder and a welcomed .30" of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 40 minutes ago, alex said: My forecast for Monday is 77 and rain... is our forecast not updated or just how it is? Yeah I think Sunday will be the hotter day up in our latitude. Monday has clouds, rain/storms and more humidity but lower temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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