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June 2018 General Discussion

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
816 PM CDT Thu Jun 28 2018

.UPDATE...
816 PM CDT

No big changes planned to going forecast. Did bump up cloud cover
tonight, especially first half of the night as blow off cloudiness
to the north of the impressive MCS over southern IL provides a
high overcast over the area. After midnight expect a gradual
decrease in this cloudiness with a good deal of sunshine expected
Friday.

A couple of CAMs (convective allowing models) would suggest
convection over MN tonight will peel southeast into the
instability axis, threatening mainly our northeastern CWA with
outflow or perhaps even convection Friday morning. While this
potential would appear remote, don`t have any strong new evidence
to eliminate this possibility, so not planning to upgrade the
excessive heat watch for our northeast CWA this shift.

Did nudge dewpoints up a bit in the grids tomorrow as forecast
soundings continue to depict unusually low inversion heights for
the afternoon this time of year tomorrow, near or even just below
900mb. The very low inversion heights will likely trap corn fed
evapotranspiration dewpoints near the surface and prevent them
from mixing out, similar to the infamous 1995 and 1999 heat
waves. Given the recent record rainfall, suspect that 80F+
dewpoints outside of the Chicago urban corridor will be fairly
common tomorrow afternoon. Big question is how hot temperatures
will get. Unlike 1995 and 1999, very recent heavy rainfall has
left areas lush green and combined with the very high moisture
content could hold temps more in the low to mid 90s vs mid to
upper 90s, but the difference will be more academic 80F+ dewpoints
send heat indices to 105F to 115F with some area potentially even
making a run at 120F tomorrow afternoon if dewpoints can get up
into the 82-84F range, which is well within the realm of
possibilities.

Updated grids/derived text forecasts have already been sent.

- Izzi
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Stebo

Stebo

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3 hours ago, weatherbo said:

85/57 today but 88 is forecasted for both tomorrow and Saturday, with increasing humidity.  85 felt really warm tho.  Could use some rain again, so the heat and humidity is welcome. Bugs did end up getting really bad... straight deet is essential to being outside right now.

I don't like hearing this :(

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

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I've never seen a forecast like this in WNY in recent memory. Going to go from highs in the 90s to highs in the low 50s in Iceland overnight. 

Friday
Sunny, with a high near 89. West wind around 9 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 70. South wind 5 to 7 mph.
Saturday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 102. Breezy, with a southwest wind 11 to 21 mph.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 74. Southwest wind 9 to 14 mph.
Sunday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 97.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Monday
Partly sunny and hot, with a high near 92.
Monday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 91.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.
Independence Day
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 91.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 70.
Thursday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 90.
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Hoosier

Hoosier

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26 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

 3km nam shows 110-115 heat index values across much of the region, looks to be pretty darn awful out there tomorrow. With most 00z guidance losing any convection tomorrow, would expect LOT to upgrade remaining counties to a warning

8D18DA40-1B0F-47E6-83C1-8B03EF725526.jpeg

Agreed

As bad as it will be during the day... imo, pockets of Chicago may have heat indices not dropping below the upper 80s/near 90 most of tomorrow night as well as Saturday night.  Not good for people without air conditioning.

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DaveNay

DaveNay

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Posted
Maybe late this week?  :guitar:  Looking at the 12z GFS rolling in, it has a lot of 82-84 degree dews early Friday evening.
For some of our older adults here, if it seems like it's more muggy with more extreme muggy airmasses compared to decades ago, you'd be correct.  That is an actual trend backed up by observations... maybe not everywhere (can't recall all the details of the study I read) but definitely in the areas with significant corn crop.
I live in the middle of that significant corn crop. Surrounded by thousands of acres of corn.

Oh, and no central A/C either. Just window units in the bedrooms.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

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King James

King James

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Posted
I live in the middle of that significant corn crop. Surrounded by thousands of acres of corn.

Oh, and no central A/C either. Just window units in the bedrooms.

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk


I am in the same boat as you. Surrounded by corn. No AC crew checking in!


.
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beavis1729

beavis1729

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, 87 now at ORD which looks to be a couple degrees ahead of the latest HRRR.

We could already be seeing some differences in the areas that are more urban and drier, vs. those that are more rural and have high evapotranspiration rates due to farmland/corn.

ORD is 87/69

RFD and DKB are 84/74

PNT is 85/76

 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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21 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

We could already be seeing some differences in the areas that are more urban and drier, vs. those that are more rural and have high evapotranspiration rates due to farmland/corn.

ORD is 87/69

RFD and DKB are 84/74

PNT is 85/76

 

Agree.  There is sort of a west-east moisture gradient too, but if you look at IGQ and VPZ, both south/east of Chicago, they have dews of 74.  So probably a combination of the urban effects in Chicago and the aforementioned gradient. 

il_sfc.gif.92e54226075da7db9458a258b2cb1686.gif

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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36 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

89/80/107 there now.

Are you on board with an 80 degree low at ORD tonight?  I still think it is more likely than not, and have noticed that the models have a tendency to drop temps in the city too quickly.  The HRRR gets it down to about 78, even with a ~7 degree drop between 7 and 9 pm tonight, which is unlikely to happen.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

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42 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Are you on board with an 80 degree low at ORD tonight?  I still think it is more likely than not, and have noticed that the models have a tendency to drop temps in the city too quickly.  The HRRR gets it down to about 78, even with a ~7 degree drop between 7 and 9 pm tonight, which is unlikely to happen.

I'll give it a 50/50 shot at this point. Would not at all be surprised for it to get down to 79.

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