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June 2018 General Discussion


Hoosier
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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Enter curveball on the 3 km NAM.  Will have to see if this appears on future runs

nam3km_ref_uv10m_ncus_39.thumb.png.1017b4a34563de85ee59027be63f3def.png

nam3km_ref_uv10m_ncus_42.thumb.png.11c1903a5247fd066f62b73b552dabaa.png

That scenario would make the pooling of the surface dews even more extreme along the western edge of the outflow.  3km NAM shows 82-83 dews and results in heat index temps of 117-119 in this area lol.  

I mentioned DVN's call for 96/110 at MLI for high temp/max heat index for Friday.  It's a good call, but I think I'm gonna go with 98 for the high.  MLI isn't surrounded by heavy crops, so they may not see 80+ dews like some sites nearby in more rural settings.  110 for the peak heat index there is probably pretty good for a call.  For here I'm thinking we'll top out around 94-95, with a peak heat index between 110-115.

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Interested to see how high dews get in rural areas like mine where corn plays a huge role. During the last heat wave, max temp/dew/HI I recorded was 95/79/110, with LOT forecasting 97/80/116 Saturday. As mentioned, localized areas can have much higher dews than urban areas where observation sites are. Interested to see how this will play out, wonder how extreme the readings will get. 

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1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

Interested to see how high dews get in rural areas like mine where corn plays a huge role. During the last heat wave, max temp/dew/HI I recorded was 95/79/110, with LOT forecasting 97/80/116 Saturday. As mentioned, localized areas can have much higher dews than urban areas where observation sites are. Interested to see how this will play out, wonder how extreme the readings will get. 

I would love to have an official/recently calibrated ASOS station placed next to a large corn field and see what those readings would be.  

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The front slowed down on tonight's available 00z runs.  Still some uncertainty how clouds/convection will play out, but I could certainly see Sunday putting up another 90+ in Chicago and feeling almost as hot as the prior days. The very warm start will be a nice launching pad to counter the possible aforementioned mitigating factors.

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9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

That scenario would make the pooling of the surface dews even more extreme along the western edge of the outflow.  3km NAM shows 82-83 dews and results in heat index temps of 117-119 in this area lol.  

I mentioned DVN's call for 96/110 at MLI for high temp/max heat index for Friday.  It's a good call, but I think I'm gonna go with 98 for the high.  MLI isn't surrounded by heavy crops, so they may not see 80+ dews like some sites nearby in more rural settings.  110 for the peak heat index there is probably pretty good for a call.  For here I'm thinking we'll top out around 94-95, with a peak heat index between 110-115.

From what I can tell, no other 00z run has a convective complex diving so far south/east like the 3 km does at that time.  

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On 6/25/2018 at 6:36 AM, Chicago WX said:

I'm going to take the under. :lol:

Regardless, for those of us that work outside in these conditions, Friday and Saturday will be a rough go...dangerous really. Why people root for this sh*t is beyond me. 

The heat elevates my mood and overall I feel happier during heatwaves. I'm starting to not like the high humidity as much now with that said.

On 6/26/2018 at 11:34 AM, Snowstorms said:

I'm definitely ready for a nice beautiful long weekend with some nice heat and humidity. Now I know that might sound strange, but I recently came back from a vacation in Thailand for about 2 weeks and that heat was unbearable. The humidity was nothing like the humidity we see here in the area. Having been to Vegas last year, I personally prefer dry heat over humid heat.  

We could really use a nice thunderstorm or two tomorrow. YYZ is sitting at only 1.65" of rain for the month and half that fell this past weekend. Hope everyone else is doing well and enjoying summer!

I recently came back from a different type of heat, a dry Sonoran one. I went to southern AZ to experience some awesome oven heat and I wasn't disappointed! :) I was worried that Hurricane Bud's moisture was going to screw everything up but thankfully I got there after when above normal temperatures reigned. It was between 108-111ºF :wub:. This might sound crazy, but I was wishing it would at least for one day get to the next tier of heat circa 119ºF-121ºF like it did in 2016 and 2017. I would venture out during the hottest part of the day and bask in it, what I noticed was it was far more breezy than I expected. I adored the night heat. Because the sun is more powerful down there it felt like my skin was burning in real time. The hot wind would also irritate my skin around my eyes as if I was peering into a oven releasing all its heat. Other than that I absolutely loved it all, the heat didn't bother me. I truly belong there and I can't wait to go back.

At first I didn't notice that dry nature of the heat but gradually I could feel the difference. Once I got back to Canada there was cool temps but humidity and I didn't like it. I prefer the dry heat definitely especially since the last heatwave I wasn't taking it as well. Now after that AZ adventure I get to experience a mega heatwave here but I'll wither with the humidex being near record levels during this weekend.

As far as I know we still haven't had a single thunderstorm except two rumbles in Feb so far in 2018 :lmao:. Wednesday of course the thunderstorms didn't affect me at all. I have to wonder if the rubber band is going to snap back on that one later this summer.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

From what I can tell, no other 00z run has a convective complex like the 3 km does at that time.  

Yeah def an outlier at this point.

3km NAM showing over 10000J/Kg of cape over eastern Iowa Friday afternoon.  Likely overdone, and it wouldn't do any good anyway, but fun to look at.

34yzo10.jpg

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10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah def an outlier at this point.

3km NAM showing over 10000J/Kg of cape over eastern Iowa Friday afternoon.  Likely overdone, and it wouldn't do any good anyway, but fun to look at.

34yzo10.jpg

Lol man that's sick, and it actually has decent low to mid level flow.

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14 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah there's gonna be some ultra high dews.  Peru and Pontiac AWOS prob gonna hit 84+.  

 

Pontiac seems to always have higher dews than other surrounding areas. I remember summer 2011 was the king of 80 degree dews, pretty sure I remember Champaign having a 100/80/118. Could be wrong though. 

EDIT: could have sworn in July 11’ that happened but going through obs the highest I could find for Champaign was 98/77.

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54 minutes ago, Chambana said:

 

Pontiac seems to always have higher dews than other surrounding areas. I remember summer 2011 was the king of 80 degree dews, pretty sure I remember Champaign having a 100/80/118. Could be wrong though. 

EDIT: could have sworn in July 11’ that happened but going through obs the highest I could find for Champaign was 98/77.

Yes july 11, 2011 july 18-21th were extreme humidity upper 70s 80s dews throughout midwest. I remember well. Moorehead mn on 19th at one point was like 93 88 so 133 heat index I believe 

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The 12z 3km NAM still depicts the MCS/squall line for tomorrow morning but shunts it off to the northeast as compared to earlier runs and kills it over Lake Michigan. I would speculate that if it occurs and follows that path, it may still be detrimental for max temperature possibilities at ORD. The 12km NAM picks up on it, but it is much farther north and weaker.

Pat Murphy at IWX and Mike Ryan at IND both became a little concerned in their overnight discussions.

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_27.png

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15 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

The 12z 3km NAM still depicts the MCS/squall line for tomorrow morning but shunts it off to the northeast as compared to earlier runs and kills it over Lake Michigan. I would speculate that if it occurs and follows that path, it may still be detrimental for max temperature possibilities at ORD. The 12km NAM picks up on it, but it is much farther north and weaker.

Pat Murphy at IWX and Mike Ryan at IND both became a little concerned in their overnight discussions.

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_27.png

ORD recovers nicely after that, though it looks like it may cost a couple degrees on that run (just comparing with areas farther away that aren't affected).  If a line were to move through, the timing would be critical as well... get it through early enough in the morning and it would leave plenty of time to recover.  I am reminded of the last heat setup when not one, but two outflow/lake enhanced boundaries moved through overnight and then around midday and ORD still had enough time to recover into the 90s.  

Will be watching the HRRR closely later...

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LOT upgraded to excessive heat warning for mainly the western and southern counties, while maintaining the watch elsewhere out of respect for convective concerns.  

I think there's a good chance they upgrade later.  Even if convection moves through, it should be early enough to not have much impact on highs imo.  Even in the convective scenario, there would likely be sufficient recovery to get heat indices well into advisory criteria at least.

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5 hours ago, IWXwx said:

The 12z 3km NAM still depicts the MCS/squall line for tomorrow morning but shunts it off to the northeast as compared to earlier runs and kills it over Lake Michigan. I would speculate that if it occurs and follows that path, it may still be detrimental for max temperature possibilities at ORD. The 12km NAM picks up on it, but it is much farther north and weaker.

Pat Murphy at IWX and Mike Ryan at IND both became a little concerned in their overnight discussions.

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_27.png

18z 3K NAM still showing this. Not much different from the 12z run.

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14 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not our area, but Denver hit 105 today.

That tied the all time record high, which has also been achieved on 6/26/12, 6/25/12, 7/20/05 and 8/8/1878.

That's amazing, I was just there but it was 96ºF. If it got that hot so far, imagine if the 603 dm isotach right over DEN verified that the GFS showed the other day.

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The heat and humidity have just moved in today as the dome shifts NE.

Looking at one of the most pronounced heat waves in at least 3-4 summers that I can remember. Some models were pushing nation-wide record humidex values as far north as Ottawa (over 110F!) for Sunday.

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