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June 2018 General Discussion


Hoosier
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7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Here's the NAM's first run during peak heating on Friday

 

sfct.us_mw.thumb.png.676259f7383f3003c02ca3a3b9926055.png

 

Would point out this is generally several degrees warmer than the GFS.  If you just looked at the 850 mb values off the models, you would think widespread 100 degree potential given the vast area of 850 mb temps in the mid 20C.  But the issue is that the models don't quite mix that high... it's more like 900-875 mb.

It looks like it’s showing a lake breeze for MKE (not the kind of thing I’d trust the 84 hour NAM on.

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12 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

It looks like it’s showing a lake breeze for MKE (not the kind of thing I’d trust the 84 hour NAM on.

I think it might be more the precise synoptic flow than a true lake breeze, but it has a similar effect.  Of course SSE vs. due southerly would make a difference right near the shore.

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2 hours ago, weatherbo said:

This will be the hottest weather I have seen in 5 years.  Not looking forward to it, but I hope it brings some rain.

Glad you're staying in the area.  This is a really special place to live.

I am hoping to god it isn't hot late next week, I don't want to go to the UP and have it be in the 90s. Makes it hard to go sightseeing and hiking.

80s is fine but anything over 90 wouldn't be great. I would end up going to the lakes instead.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Well, Rockford has blown past their June rain record and I think they will end up with their wettest month all-time.

Indeed... 14.02" for June and counting. The previous wettest month on record was August 2007 with 13.98"

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I think it might be more the precise synoptic flow than a true lake breeze, but it has a similar effect.  Of course SSE vs. due southerly would make a difference right near the shore.

Yeah, you're probably right; just like it did with the warm spell a couple weeks ago, convection/rain on Friday morning may have an effect on temps in places like Chicago and Milwaukee that day.  The only slam dunk day in the 90s will probably be Saturday, with a very good chance on Friday as well.

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Regarding the upcoming heat around here...

The two slam dunk hot days with temps well into the 90's appear to be Friday and Saturday. Friday will likely be the hottest day, with all guidance showing 26C at 850mb nosing into the area by later Friday afternoon. The NAM even has 28C at 850 by Friday evening. At this time there is agreement on mixing to just under 850mb, which would result in mid-upper 90's. Should we mix to those very warm temps at 850mb, 100+ would easily be in the bag. So we'll see how that goes...

Beyond Saturday, the pattern get a bit more chaotic. The GFS wants to keep 90's going through late next week, while the ECMWF is a bit cooler. Probably would have precip and lake breeze concerns during that stretch though.

NAM for Friday afternoon...

2018062712_NAM_057_42,-87.98_severe_ml.png

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27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Regarding the upcoming heat around here...

The two slam dunk hot days with temps well into the 90's appear to be Friday and Saturday. Friday will likely be the hottest day, with all guidance showing 26C at 850mb nosing into the area by later Friday afternoon. The NAM even has 28C at 850 by Friday evening. At this time there is agreement on mixing to just under 850mb, which would result in mid-upper 90's. Should we mix to those very warm temps at 850mb, 100+ would easily be in the bag. So we'll see how that goes...

Beyond Saturday, the pattern get a bit more chaotic. The GFS wants to keep 90's going through late next week, while the ECMWF is a bit cooler. Probably would have precip and lake breeze concerns during that stretch though.

NAM for Friday afternoon...

2018062712_NAM_057_42,-87.98_severe_ml.png

Yeah, gradient slackens next week and some combination of synoptic flow/lake breeze should give lakeside areas some relief.  Overall it still looks like a fairly warm pattern after the weekend, especially inland.

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Relevant part of the LOT disco

The models have been consistently pointing to an excessive heat
event for Friday and Saturday for the past several days, as has been
advertised in previous discussions and messaging.  Much of the model
guidance has been indicating the potential for mid 90s temperatures
with mid to upper 70s dewpoints.  If anything, the blended model
guidance has had a slightly low bias due to a low bias in GFS
temperatures.  Dewpoint guidance has been consistently indicating
mid 70s dewpoints, and main adjustment has been to adjust dewpoints
up over the "corn belt" of the CWA to upper 70s to arnd 80F.
Locations generally west of I-55 have had a significant amount of
rain over the past few days, which is still covering mainly fields
and unpaved surfaces.  See little reason for this water to go away
any time soon, so, combined with evapotranspiration, dewpoints on
the higher side of guidance, or even slightly higher seems
reasonable.  This would give max temps in the 93-98F range and heat
index values in the 105-115F range.  So, will go with a Heat Watch
for the entire CWA.
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I want the 80 degree dew.  If the alternative is a peak of like 78, that is kinda lame.  I'd say it's basically a slam dunk in the heart of the corn area.  But a more suburban area like mine, gonna be tougher.  Then again, the corn fields aren't terribly far upstream and the low level flow will be coming from that area.

2 days until obsessive dewpoint watch, haha

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5 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Heck of a stretch coming that’s for sure. Looking at dews in my neck of the woods they seem to stay around 70° so we should be able to go 6 straight days in the 90s easily

I'm doing my part in pumping up the dews out in our neck of the woods. :D

 

corn.jpg

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I want the 80 degree dew.  If the alternative is a peak of like 78, that is kinda lame.  I'd say it's basically a slam dunk in the heart of the corn area.  But a more suburban area like mine, gonna be tougher.  Then again, the corn fields aren't terribly far upstream and the low level flow will be coming from that area.

2 days until obsessive dewpoint watch, haha

85 or bust here :thumbsup:

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For ORD I'll go 96 on Friday and 97 on Saturday.

As Chi Storm mentioned, if Friday can mix even just a little higher than progged, then it could be a bit warmer with 100 not out of the question.  

The airmass aloft is progged to be cooler on Saturday, so why am I going with that as the warmer day?  For one thing, the "cooling" looks modest (is it even real cooling or the models trying to indicate slightly deeper mixing?) and secondly, Saturday should have a significantly warmer start than Friday.  I just have a feeling that may allow Saturday's high to at least tie or slightly exceed Friday, but that possibility would be reduced of course if Friday has better mixing.

I'll go with a low of 81 on Saturday morning. This setup looks to fit the profile of many of the past 80+ nights with a preceding high at least in the mid/upper 90s, very high dewpoints and winds staying up a bit overnight. I'd give about a 65% chance of the low being 80+.  

Not ready to make a call on Sunday's low.  

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DVN has 96 for Fri at MLI, with 110 heat index.  Think that's a solid call.  3km NAM has slowed down the axis of highest dews compared to last night's runs.  Now holds on to near 80 dews through the afternoon in the eastern cwa.  Thinking here in whiteside county we'll get some 81-83 dews for a time Friday afternoon, and possibly early Fri evening.  Corn is now about 7-8ft tall, and starting to tassel, so we are at peak evapotranspiration.  

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