June 2018 General Discussion

[cyclone77]

The Iowa complex crapped the bed before reaching us per usual, but the dense canopy of clouds have kept temps nice and cool today.  Only 67 right now with a few sprinkles.

[Hoosier]

I'll go 95, 97, 97 at ORD for Saturday, Sunday, Monday

For Saturday, debris clouds could be a bit of a factor.  Will hedge toward it not being much of an issue at this point.  If max warming can be realized, then at least 95 looks attainable and perhaps a tick higher.  

Sunday appears to have the least amount of complicating factors.   The GFS continues to run a little cooler but even its thermal profiles aloft would support mid 90s.  Our of respect to the warmer models and given that the day should start off in the upper 70s and with plenty of sun, will lean toward a somewhat warmer high.

Monday looks to have very similar thermal profiles aloft as Sunday.  Given that and a starting point near 80, will bank on temps being very much like Sunday even with the possibility of more clouds than Sunday.  I still would not be all that surprised to see this day end up the warmest of the 3, especially if full/nearly full sunshine occurs through afternoon.

[cyclone77]

I'm a little nervous about my 96/98/98 call for Sat-Mon at MLI now lol.  Cloud debris issue on Sat that Hoosier and Chistorm pointed out, and the models are creeping the front closer and closer on Monday now.  If trends continue Mon may end up getting cut short.  Also, the corn around here is WAAAY ahead of schedule.  The early season heat, and recent generous rains have most fields at chest high already.  Back in late May the corn was maybe a foot tall.  Tremendous evapotranspiration from the fields and wetter soils will make it harder to heat the landscape compared to the late May episode.  Will ride my previous call for now, but DVN is probably right to stay conservative.  At this point 100 is looking pretty unlikely, which is disappointing considering a 99 has already been attained this year.

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I'm a little nervous about my 96/98/98 call for Sat-Mon at MLI now lol.  Cloud debris issue on Sat that Hoosier and Chistorm pointed out, and the models are creeping the front closer and closer on Monday now.  If trends continue Mon may end up getting cut short.  Also, the corn around here is WAAAY ahead of schedule.  The early season heat, and recent generous rains have most fields at chest high already.  Back in late May the corn was maybe a foot tall.  Tremendous evapotranspiration from the fields and wetter soils will make it harder to heat the landscape compared to the late May episode.  Will ride my previous call for now, but DVN is probably right to stay conservative.  At this point 100 is looking pretty unlikely, which is disappointing considering a 99 has already been attained this year.

Assuming you don't get 100 this time, maybe there will be another crack at it later this summer.  It's only mid June.

[BuffaloWeather]

Have been having some beautiful sunsets here the last few weeks. 

 

[zinski1990]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Assuming you don't get 100 this time, maybe there will be another crack at it later this summer.  It's only mid June.

I have a feeling this summer many areas in forum will get to 100 at least a few times. Look at latest euro weeklies and Japanese building monster ridges 

[IWXwx]

2 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

I'm a little nervous about my 96/98/98 call for Sat-Mon at MLI now lol.  Cloud debris issue on Sat that Hoosier and Chistorm pointed out, and the models are creeping the front closer and closer on Monday now.  If trends continue Mon may end up getting cut short.  Also, the corn around here is WAAAY ahead of schedule.  The early season heat, and recent generous rains have most fields at chest high already.  Back in late May the corn was maybe a foot tall.  Tremendous evapotranspiration from the fields and wetter soils will make it harder to heat the landscape compared to the late May episode.  Will ride my previous call for now, but DVN is probably right to stay conservative.  At this point 100 is looking pretty unlikely, which is disappointing considering a 99 has already been attained this year.

I know that the topic here is a forecast discussion in trying to nail the temp forecast based on conditions.  However, for Joe Public, this heat will have a much more adverse effect than the May episode because of the higher dews. Heck, when FWA hit 97° on 5/28, I did a double take because it just didn't feel that warm.

[Hoosier]

A little more on 80 degree lows in Chicago...

It has happened 8 times since the official observation site moved to O'Hare in 1980.  Looking through the hourly obs on those 8 days plus an additional 3 days when the official site was at Midway and for which hourly obs are available, all of these days have some things in common.  The winds at night generally were at least 6-10+ mph (except for maybe one hourly ob here and there). Dewpoints on almost all of the nights stayed in the 70s.  The preceding days high temperature was often upper 90s or hotter, but not always.

For anybody who wants to look through the dates, here's the list:

7/21/1972

7/22/1972

7/6/1977

7/15/1980

8/3/1988

7/13/1995

7/14/1995

8/1/2006

7/18/2011

7/6/2012

7/23/2012

[weatherbo]

NMU's webcam of Marquette, tonight at 10 pm.  We need some rain here in the north.

 

[cyclone77]

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

I know that the topic here is a forecast discussion in trying to nail the temp forecast based on conditions.  However, for Joe Public, this heat will have a much more adverse effect than the May episode because of the higher dews. Heck, when FWA hit 97° on 5/28, I did a double take because it just didn't feel that warm.

Yeah definitely.  This heat spell will definitely be more dangerous to be out in.  Heat indices around here only briefly crossed the 100 degree mark before dipping back into the 90s and in some cases dropped lower than the actual temp.  Monday could be especially bad as the moisture pools ahead of the approaching front.

Had a pretty decent sunset here this eve.  Had to fight through some gnats to get this shot lol.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah definitely.  This heat spell will definitely be more dangerous to be out in.  Heat indices around here only briefly crossed the 100 degree mark before dipping back into the 90s and in some cases dropped lower than the actual temp.  Monday could be especially bad as the moisture pools ahead of the approaching front.

Had a pretty decent sunset here this eve.  Had to fight through some gnats to get this shot lol.

Amazing, my new background. 

[Chicago Storm]

6 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

I'm a little nervous about my 96/98/98 call for Sat-Mon at MLI now lol.  Cloud debris issue on Sat that Hoosier and Chistorm pointed out, and the models are creeping the front closer and closer on Monday now.  If trends continue Mon may end up getting cut short.  Also, the corn around here is WAAAY ahead of schedule.  The early season heat, and recent generous rains have most fields at chest high already.  Back in late May the corn was maybe a foot tall.  Tremendous evapotranspiration from the fields and wetter soils will make it harder to heat the landscape compared to the late May episode.  Will ride my previous call for now, but DVN is probably right to stay conservative.  At this point 100 is looking pretty unlikely, which is disappointing considering a 99 has already been attained this year.

Interesting to hear crops are ahead of schedule out by you. Closer to DKB things are definitely far behind where they should be. Lingering affects of late planting and periods of heavy rains have slowed progress.

[Stebo]

3 hours ago, weatherbo said:

NMU's webcam of Marquette, tonight at 10 pm.  We need some rain here in the north.

 

I hope some comes between now and the weekend after the Fourth, staying up north for 3 nights at a cabin and don't want any fire restrictions as it is always nice to have a campfire.

[cyclone77]

40 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Interesting to hear crops are ahead of schedule out by you. Closer to DKB things are definitely far behind where they should be. Lingering affects of late planting and periods of heavy rains have slowed progress.

Yeah the heat in late May and a good chunk of June kicked the crops into high gear.  The fields were planted on time despite the very cool April.  

[weatherbo]

5 hours ago, Stebo said:

I hope some comes between now and the weekend after the Fourth, staying up north for 3 nights at a cabin and don't want any fire restrictions as it is always nice to have a campfire.

Decent line of thundershowers moving into the western UP this morning. 

I think we'll be in good shape up here by the 4th.  What area are you coming to this year?

[SchaumburgStormer]

7 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah the heat in late May and a good chunk of June kicked the crops into high gear.  The fields were planted on time despite the very cool April.  

A good chunk of our corn wasn’t in until mid May, which put us really behind schedule. 

[IWXwx]

9 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah the heat in late May and a good chunk of June kicked the crops into high gear.  The fields were planted on time despite the very cool April.  

 

1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

A good chunk of our corn wasn’t in until mid May, which put us really behind schedule. 

OT, but I put in a first-year garden and must have timed the planting just right. I put tomatoes and sweet corn in the ground around the first of May, which coincided with the temperature switch being flipped and also aided by timely rain. My tomato plants are already 56" tall and the corn is three to four feet tall.

[Stebo]

4 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Decent line of thundershowers moving into the western UP this morning. 

I think we'll be in good shape up here by the 4th.  What area are you coming to this year?

Tahquamenon area, renting a cabin in Hurlbert. Gonna do some trout fishing near Seney too.

[cyclone77]

Dews have surged into the mid 70s here.  Feels pretty muggy out there with the full sun, light winds, and an actual temp of 90.

[cyclone77]

Topped out at 92, with 93 the max at MLI.  Dew hit 77 here at one point.

[Hoosier]

15 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Topped out at 92, with 93 the max at MLI.  Dew hit 77 here at one point.

You may already know this, but that is closer to what the warmer guidance had out your way.  GFS was too cool.

[UMB WX]

nice rain this AM to sunny and hoodie afternoon with the wind ripping off the lake and temps struggling in the 60's.  30 degrees warmer this time tomorrow.

[Stebo]

DTX going bold for Sunday, 97. I certainly believe it though. 94 on Monday as well, if the front is a hair slower that could also be in the upper 90s.

[hawkeye_wx]

Dewpoint in Cedar Rapids is now up to 77.  It only got up to 90, but this evening the air is thick and the wind has died.

[Hoosier]

Made a late run toward 90 after dealing with clouds earlier in the day.  The real swamp stuff hasn't made it here but there is a noticeable mugginess.

[Chicago Storm]

ORD and MDW were 89'd today. 

Temps really flat-lined from around 3PM on, so max heating potential was met. Warm front stayed southwest of the metro, and the lake breeze stalled near the terminals.

[Chicago Storm]

82/80 PNT, 82/78 TIP, 83/78 AAA last hour.

[weatherbo]

Had a nice soaking rain and then a beautiful sunset to end the day...cool, only 60 for a high.

 

 

 

[Hoosier]

Complex in WI looks likely to send some outflow into the LOT cwa.  With it being a wee hours of the morning thing, there should be plenty of time to recover tomorrow.

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, weatherbo said:

Had a nice soaking rain and then a beautiful sunset to end the day...cool, only 60 for a high.

 

 

 

Nice shot