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June 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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LGA reached 100 last year in June. Newark was 99 on that day I believe. 

I remember that day because the car I was riding in overheated, it was brutally hot standing outside. I think Central Park was only low 90s that day. My own thermometer reached 99.

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38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

After the 2013 summer, Newark has had 31 days of 95+ to 0 days reaching 100. But one of these days they will finally break the no 100 degree streak. 

our hot spells have been mostly from "home grown" ridges backing in from the atlantic. we need a western trough to advect desert heat eastward

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4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

our hot spells have been mostly from "home grown" ridges backing in from the atlantic. we need a western trough to advect desert heat eastward

You could see the seeds of that progressing on/around 7/9-10

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Remainder of June averaging 77degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  +0.1.   Should end at +0.7.

The full 8 days are averaging 79degs. , or 5degs. AN.

The GFS is terminal.   5  100's in a row!!!   All time high broken twice at 107!!!   GW Wongs will go nuts with these numbers, if the City survives.

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48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Both the Euro and GFS have a core of +24C 850 temperatures next weekend. So it looks like somebody in the Northeast has a shot at 100 degrees. The EPS has a stronger WAR so the highest 850's are directed into New England and Upstate New York. The OP Euro actually has 103 in New Hampshire.

eps_t850_20_conus_168.thumb.png.7fa9042f1a3476ed0760463c709a8ed2.png

 

Looks as hot as it gets up in the mountains this weekend!  I'll be up in Lake George where mid 90s are looking possible especially in the lower elevations

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37 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

For the record, the 0Z GFS---The next 10:  

85, 83, 79, 92, 97, 101, 105, 107, 107, 105

Will update as needed.   Looks like Dallas starting the 28th.

That would be lethal for us if anything close to that verifies, the electrical strain would be substantial. 

Also we haven't had to deal with prolonged heat yet, everytime it got hot we cooled down a day or two later.

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58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Be interesting to see if this is the 2nd heatwave of the season that's warmer to the north of NYC Metro. 

Albany, NY reached 97F today, likely due to downsloping adiabatically warming & drying the boundary layer w/ wind shift from SSE to WSW. This is also Albany's warmest temp since 7/17/2012, and the 4th hottest day in modern records (1938-2018, record is 100F). pic.twitter.com/mqHL2vohKH

that was a pretty localized effect, GFL hit 91 and 89 and my house in LG.  I think Albany had compressional downslope warming out ahead of a back door front.  The actual airmass was hot but not like what is forecast for this weekend and early next week.  

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Interesting AFD out of Upton this morning:

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper ridging and an attendant surface high shift farther offshore
on Wednesday in advance of a weak approaching short wave. A warm
front will move northward through the day, and with broad south-
southwest flow, moisture will rapidly increase, with a noticeable
return to humidity by Wednesday night and PWAT values close to
climatological maximums for the time of year. As the short wave
moves into the area overnight, expect shower and thunderstorm
chances to increase overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Despite
modest flow, moist adiabatic lapse rates and weak lapse rates will
generally limit any severe potential, with the predominate threat
locally heavy downpours. The exception may be along the immediate
coast Wednesday night, with warm water temperatures across the New
York Harbor into western Nassau county and modest SRH/shear in the
lowest 3km, weakly rotating storms capable of waterspouts may not be
out of the question. Showers and thunderstorms may continue through
much of the day Thursday as the short wave slowly moves through the
area, coming to an end from west to east by the evening into the
overnight as a cold front moves through, bringing lower humidity
values.
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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

That would be lethal for us if anything close to that verifies, the electrical strain would be substantial. 

Also we haven't had to deal with prolonged heat yet, everytime it got hot we cooled down a day or two later.

The power grid would be getting an incredible workout.  

This week continues the pattern of sharply contrasting weather.  Northern and western suburbs should see low 50's tonight.

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Remember the gfs has been running too warm with its 2m temps since it's upgrade last year...Seems to do it all the time regardless of the pattern at the time. Was wondering if it was more of a local problem, but reading about the complaints from others elsewhere, it's more widespread.

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