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June 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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Only .01 for NYC. Backdoors often end up drier for us due to more influence from high pressure over New England than models indicate. Conversely, coastal storms can come further north when models underestimate the SE Ridge/WAR. 

Major flash flooding ongoing in the Phila area. The Frankford Creek river gauge at Castor Ave in Phila just peaked to 13.56 ft at 115 AM, which is the second highest stage on record (record is 19.4 ft on 9/28/04). Records at that site go back to 1982. pic.twitter.com/HqGRKA6FKa

WUNIDS_map.gif.07817176d50800a7b6a1d9c8c2d6529c.gif

 

 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If that cutoff verifies for next Monday, then the warm up may not be able to reach its full potential. So we would have to wait longer for our first official heatwave of the season at places like Newark.

IMG_0152.thumb.PNG.2d0c966344f74e0f63cad170bae6d00f.PNG

 

 

 

Maybe we will have to wait until the beginning of July before experiencing our first heatwave of the warm season?

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Maybe we will have to wait until the beginning of July before experiencing our first heatwave of the warm season?

There’s a very strong tendency to have these troughs and lows to our east over the last 30+ days and keep some kind of easterly flow going. Hard to discount it. 

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

I'm good with the heat staying away :)  The ground has really dried out now but the soil moisture an inch or more down is still high. Things are blooming and growing like mad B) 

My garden is doing really well this year....light insect damage on the eggplant (I'm all organic, though I use a mix of castile soap and water to repel bugs)...but everything is green and rapidly budding.

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Models backed off on the weak low idea to our east for early next week. Somebody could hit the upper 90's with those +20C 850's. That would tie or break the record high at Newark.

6/18 97 in 1993 97 in 1945 96 in 1994

IMG_0153.thumb.PNG.cbb161b82c18db90c01eb0356e37c14a.PNG

gfs_T2m_neus_27.thumb.png.cceece6bee7cfe4aa11264b4b93b4e4c.png

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Models backed off on the weak low idea to our east for early next week. Somebody could hit the upper 90's with those +20C 850's. That would tie or break the record high at Newark.

6/18 97 in 1993 97 in 1945 96 in 1994

 

Large temperature swings continue.  From May to mid-July in a week.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models backed off on the weak low idea to our east for early next week. Somebody could hit the upper 90's with those +20C 850's. That would tie or break the record high at Newark.

6/18 97 in 1993 97 in 1945 96 in 1994

IMG_0153.thumb.PNG.cbb161b82c18db90c01eb0356e37c14a.PNG

gfs_T2m_neus_27.thumb.png.cceece6bee7cfe4aa11264b4b93b4e4c.png

 

 

 

whenever there's a ridge in the east these days records get broken

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37 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Large temperature swings continue.  From May to mid-July in a week.

Yeah, the ridge pulses back down just a few days later as heights really rise near the PACNW. So it looks like a 2-3 day event.

22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

whenever there's a ridge in the east these days records get broken

Imagine if we ever got a summer ridge that went as extreme as we saw back in February or December 2015. That would probably be our first summer month in the +6 to +10 range. I guess we would have to see a 2013 mid-July WAR like lock in for an entire month.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Imagine if we ever got a summer ridge that went as extreme as we saw back in February or December 2015. That would probably be our first summer month in the +6 to +10 range. I guess we would have to see a 2013 mid-July WAR like lock in for an entire month.

i'm thinking a WAR/plains drought ridge linkup

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the ridge pulses back down just a few days later as heights really rise near the PACNW. So it looks like a 2-3 day event.

 

Seems to be the theme this year.  Quick hitting bouts of heat, like we saw in early May for example.

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