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Isotherm

My Summer Outlook 2018

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Questions/Comments welcome, as always. A bit later than typical due to time constraints, but glad to have made it prior to the 31st deadline.

 

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

 

Snippet:

 

The Outlook for the NYC local region stations

 

Meteorological Summer JJA Temperature Departures: 0 to +1; Near normal to Slightly Warmer than Normal

 

90 Degree Days: 18-25 Across Most of the NJ-NYC-LI Area; 10-18 along the immediate coast

 

Meteorological Summer JJA Precipitation Departures: Wet to Much Wetter than Normal; spatial distribution of summertime convection renders greater forecast specificity useless

 

Hurricane Outlook: Named storms – around 10; Hurricanes – around 5; Major Hurricanes – 1 to 2; Impact – greater than normal potential in South Texas, Florida, and the Southeast US Coastline.

 

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5 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

Questions/Comments welcome, as always. A bit later than typical due to time constraints, but glad to have made it prior to the 31st deadline.

 

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

 

Snippet:

 

The Outlook for the NYC local region stations

 

Meteorological Summer JJA Temperature Departures: 0 to +1; Near normal to Slightly Warmer than Normal

 

90 Degree Days: 18-25 Across Most of the NJ-NYC-LI Area; 10-18 along the immediate coast

 

Meteorological Summer JJA Precipitation Departures: Wet to Much Wetter than Normal; spatial distribution of summertime convection renders greater forecast specificity useless

 

Hurricane Outlook: Named storms – around 10; Hurricanes – around 5; Major Hurricanes – 1 to 2; Impact – greater than normal potential in South Texas, Florida, and the Southeast US Coastline.

 

I am liking "Meteorological Summer JJA Precipitation Departures: Wet to Much Wetter than Normal; spatial distribution of summertime convection renders greater forecast specificity useless"

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Thanks for doing this each year. I know there is less interest in for the summer months but it is probably my favorite season. I have found your analysis to be very detailed, and honestly, usually very accurate. Look forward to you self-assessment after the season too. 

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Pleased with how we're progressing thus far. As alluded to in the outlook, a significant, 1-2 week period of heat looks to overspread the Northeast for the first half of July. 


"Eventually, by the second half of June, more ridging will extend eastward, and the West Atlantic Ridge should retrograde later in June into July. July may feature at least 2 weeks of very hot weather in the Northeast, relative to normal, with a significant heat wave, as the ridges connect."

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http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1144

 

VERIFICATION

 

See the following United States temperature and precipitation departure maps, respectively:

 

Last3mTDeptUS

 

Last3mPDeptUS

 

Northeastern US temperature departures:

 

Last3mTDeptNRCC

 

 

Local temperature departures for June-July-August in the NJ-NY region included the following:

Newark, NJ: +1.3

JFK, NY: +0.73

New York, NY: +1.4

LGA, NY: +2.6

Islip, NY: +1.8

 

Mean departure for those stations: +1.56

Thus, it is reasonable to state that, overall (for most locations) temperature departures for summer 2018 fell between approximately +1.0 and +2.0.

My temperature departure map indicated +0.5 to +2 departures for the coastal Northeast, although specific numbers provided for NYC were 0 to +1. Therefore, while the warmer than idea verified, the heat was slightly greater in magnitude than anticipated. The progression for June and July verified very well: cool –> hot. However, August was the most aberrant deviation from the forecasted progression, although, higher dew points were correctly prognosticated throughout the summer.

For the nation as a whole, temperature departures were mostly correct / within range, with the most robust warmth relative to normal in the SW US as expected. The primary flaw was the near-normal area forecasted in the Great Lakes/interior Northeast.

Regarding precipitation, rainfall was above to well above normal in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, as anticipated. Most of the rest of the country was closer to normal or drier than normal, although, portions of the Mid-west/Ohio Valley were wetter than expected.

Overall, nation-wide, this was a great forecast, and locally, a good to very good forecast, with the principal flaw being a slight underestimation in the magnitude of the heat, especially for the month of August. 90 degree days, forecasted to be 18-25, should have been forecasted as 20-30; however, the range will be close for most locations.

In closing – in consideration of all the aforementioned factors:

I conclude that this summer 2018 forecast verified with a grade of B.

 

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