SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK INDEX

[Jbamafanwx]

Curious to hear opinions on whether or not the current labeling model used for the SPC outlook for Severe weather seems a little confusing for people outside of the weather community? The SPC does an impeccable job in forecasting. ..the best in the business. But to a non weather enthusiast ...does enhanced sound more imminent than Moderate? Or Marginal sound more so than slight?  I have no real horse in the race ....just thought it would be a good topic to discuss.Considering all of the amazing advancement in the field from a technological standpoint and advanced warnings.... I feel the social science side with how the general public digests the info lags behind. 

[Eskimo Joe]

I don't take the public's opinion on the SPC outlook rating for much, most of the population can't even spell 'lightning' properly.

[Hoosier]

Personally I've never been a fan of the enhanced word.  I think it's too broad of a term.  A moderate or high risk day is "enhanced" in comparison to a slight risk day.  

[nrgjeff]

Reality is the SPC outlooks are more for other meteorologists, but we know they go on social media. Actually I like the 5 level scale if one includes marginal. In my chasing mind, there is only slight, moderate and high. ENH is still slight. However I see value in 5 categories.

First, I believe the science has reached the point where they can forecast 5 categories. NWP advances help, and CAMs have really come of age the last few years. Second, for EMs and other partner audiences, they can define the 5 separate categories.

Now I do agree the Enhanced word seems out of order. Enhanced clouds on IR are pretty darn cold. One could get it mixed up with Moderate, unless like me you still just consider it Slight. I'd drop Enhanced and only have four categories. Marginal 15%, Slight 30%, Moderate 45%, High 45% hatched, 60%. Got back to 'see text' for below 15%.

Another option below 15% is 2018ing, but nobody outside the Community would get it.

[Jbamafanwx]

I have no issue myself in the current system, but in that breath we all are the minority . But we also know to look at 500 mb to see if we have enough mid level shear for severe weather.  That being said 99.9 % of the public just read that and have no idea what i just said lol. So for the common everyday non weather enthusiast does it seem easy to digest. But you all make good points . Unfortunately you are right that these products arent meant for the publics consumption...but with social media its being seen and i think it creates confusion. But thats the world we live in now lol

[isohume]

Most of the public doesn't know the difference btw a watch and a warning. The SPC page isn't for them and the media shouldn't have started showing those products.   

[CheeselandSkies]

Personally I think they need to raise the criteria for enhanced risk. There's a big difference between an enhanced risk day that produces a Wynnewood or Dodge City, and one that is issued for a modestly greater coverage of wind or hail than a 15% Slight can convey.

The old slight risk category was too broad, but they are issuing so many enhanced risks now that the word is losing its impact, at least for me. I think if the risk on Day 1 is only for 30% wind OR hail, it should stay at Slight. It should only trigger an Enhanced if:

A.) The probabilities are 30% for both wind AND hail.

B.) At least one of those hazards has a hatched area.

C.) There is a 10% tornado probability area (hatched or unhatched).

By the same token, Day 2 and beyond shouldn't trigger an Enhanced unless it is expected to become 30% probability for wind AND hail hazards OR 10% tornado probability OR there is a hatched area for any hazard.

I think they have been trying to get too cute with some of the extended range probabilities, although the garbage severe weather pattern of the last few years and models' often poor grasp of it haven't helped. To me, 30% shouldn't be introduced on Day 4 or beyond unless they have confidence that the probabilities will increase beyond that (I.E. MDT or HIGH risk event criteria) by the time Day 1/verification hour rolls around.