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Roger Smith

2018 North Atlantic tropical storm / hurricane season forecast contest

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We are closing in on the contest deadline, there's nothing too imminent so I will allow entries and edits to end of day June 5th then post the table of entries -- let's say 03z June 6th will be when I harvest the entries so if you're going to edit or enter, do it before that time.

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2018 North Atlantic tropical season contest -- Table of entries

Entries include the 100 count for May and are adjusted when monthly totals appear to add up to seasonal forecasts (in other words, the 100 is added on). Where May is included the total is left as posted. When there is only a seasonal forecast and no monthlies, the contest normal values are used scaled to the forecast (* appears beside forecaster name). These forecasters can supply monthly values before future months begin if they wish, and subject to the following: 

Contest rules state that your monthlies do not have to add up to your seasonal. But if anyone thinks this is an error and wants to adjust, you have until end of June 7th to adjust (PM sent to one entrant on this issue). All forecasters have the option to adjust future months before they begin if they wish (post new numbers).

Note -- have added BlunderStorm's entry which I overlooked (made the table from page one thinking all the entries were there, oops) -- tied seasonals are listed in order received.

 

FORECASTER _____________ SEASONAL __ May __ June __ July _ August _ Sept __ Oct _ Nov-Dec

___ Points available ___________ 50 _______ -- ____ 4 ____ 6 ____ 12 ___ 16  ___ 10 ____ 2 ____ 100

 

SRRTA22 __________________ 22 _9 4 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 0 _ 4 2 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 _ 3 2 1 

Roger Smith ________________21 15 7 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 4 3 2 __ 7 5 3 __ 5 4 2 _ 1 1 0

Jackstraw __________________20 10 4 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 4 2 1 __ 8 4 2 __ 2 2 0 _ 0 0 0

Orangeburgwx ______________ 19 9 4 ____100 __ 1 1 0 _ 2 0 0 _ 7 5 2 __ 4 2 1 __ 3 1 1 _ 1 0 0 

RJay ______________________ 19 9 3 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 3 2 0 _ 1 0 0

jbamafanwx ________________18 10 5 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0

Rtd208 ____________________ 18 8 5 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 2 2 __ 6 4 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 0 0 0

Stebo _____________________ 18 8 4 ____100 __ 3 1 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0

jaxjagman __________________17 9 4 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 3 2 __ 5 3 2 __ 3 2 0 _ 0 0 0

mryanwilkes ________________ 17 9 4 ____100 __ 3 2 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0

BlunderStorm _______________ 17 9 4 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 3 2 1 _ 1 0 0

UIWWildthing _______________17 9 3 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 3 1 1 __ 6 5 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0

NorthArlington101 ___________ 17 8 4 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 0 0 0

___ Consensus ______________17 8 3 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0

hlcater ____________________ 17 7 2 ____100 __ 2 1 0 _ 3 1 1 _ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 2 1 _ 1 0 0

___ Contest Normal __________16 8 3 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 6 4 1 __ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0

snowlover2 _________________16 5 2 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 1 1 __ 6 2 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0

ncskywarn _________________15 11 4 ___ 100 __ 2 1 0 _ 2 2 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 2 __ 2 2 1 _ 1 1 0

jburns _____________________15 8 4 ____100 __ 2 0 0 _ 1 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0

NCforecaster89 _____________ 15 7 3 ____100 __ 1 1 0 _ 3 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 4 2 1 __ 2 1 1 _ 1 0 0 (Jul 210 rev)

crownweather ______________ 14 7 3 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 _ 3 2 1 __ 4 2 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 0 0 0

cobalt _____________________14 6 2 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 1 __ 3 2 1 __ 2 1 0 _ 1 0 0

a few Universes below normal*_13 7 3 ____100 __ 0 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 2 1 _ 0 0 0

___ NHC mid-range _________ 13 7 2.5 __ 100 __ 0 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 2 0.5_0 0 0

Yoda ______________________13 6 2 ____100 __ 1 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 3 2 1 __ 5 2 1 __ 1 1 0 _ 0 0 0

OSUmetstud _______________ 13 5 1 ____ 100 __ 1 0 0 _ 1 0 0 _ 5 2 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 1 1 0 _ 0 0 0

pcbjr _____________________ 11 5 1 ____ 100 __ 0 0 0 _ 2 1 0 _ 4 2 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 1 0 0 _ 0 0 0

_______________________________________________________________________

Contest means ___16.5_8.2_3.4__100__1.6_0.5_0__2.4_1.0_0.2__3.7_2.2_1.0__4.8_3.0_1.5__2.3_1.4_0.6__0.5_0.2_0.0

(Consensus is the contest mean rounded off to nearest whole number -- these rounded off monthly numbers add up to 17 8 4)

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Our consensus from 24 forecasts (not including the NHC mid-range but closer to top of their range) is for a fairly average season by recent standards. The contest normal is derived from data since 1989 and is boosted by one due to the out-of-season May storm. But in general terms, the consensus looks for a somewhat more active early season (July in particular has higher numbers than average) and a somewhat flat end of the season (October shows this tendency).  

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The trends so far aren't as favorable for as active a start to the season, as I originally anticipated; such as a June hurricane. Unless I see a moderation of the current atmospheric conditions, I will likely adjust my July projections.  

Going through, and updating, my past research into June & July climatology, thought it'd be interesting to share that a surprisingly high percentage of seasons (49.7%) didn't have a single TS develop during both of those two consecutive months.  That said, I don't expect we get through both months without at least one TS formation.   

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Here's a tweet from my Twitter account (@tbrite89) on June 1, sharing numbers of all known TS/H/MH formations dating back to 1851:

Hurricaneseason2018 just officially began. Thought I’d share updated statistical research into #June TS activity for the NATL basin (1851-2017):

1) 94 tropical storm formations (1 every 1.78 years)

2) 33 hurricanes (1 per 5.1 years)

3) 2 “major” hurricanes (1 per 83.5 years)

Will add last occurrence of each:

1) TS = 2017 x 2

2) H = 2012 (Chris)

3) MH = 1966 (Alma)

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June's actual count was 0 0 0.

Scoring will be max of 4.0 points for pcbjr and afewUniversesbelownormal, also NHC mid-range.

3.5 points awarded to 1 0 0 (Blunder Storm, snowlover2, crownweather, cobalt, Yoda, OSUmetstud, and Contest Normal). 

3.0 points awarded to 1 1 0 (NCforecaster89, Orangeburgwx)

2.7 points for 1.6 0.5 0.0 (Contest mean)

2.5 points go to 2 0 0 forecasts (RJay, rtd208, jaxjagman, jburns)

2.0 points for 2 1 0 forecasts (SRRTA22, Roger Smith, jackstraw, jbamafanwx, UIWWildthing, NorthArlington101, hlcater, NCskywarn, also Consensus)

0.5 points for 3 1 0 forecast (Stebo)

0.0 points for 3 2 0 forecast (mryanwilkes)

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Have been on the road for ten days but I'm thinking July will be 2/2/0 ... let me know if that seems right.

If so, the scoring (out of 6 possible points) using the half-strength deductions that apply to shoulder months (not ASO) will be (with June points added in brackets after each name)

2 2 0 ___ 6.0 ___ ncskywarn (8.0) 

3 2 0 ___ 5.5 ___ SRRTA22 (7.5)

2 1 0 ___ 5.5 ___ pcbjr (9.5) ... blunder Storm, Cobalt, Yoda (all 9.0), NCforecaster89 (8.5), Consensus (7.5)

2.4 1 0.2 _ 5.2 __ Contest mean (7.9)

3 1 0 ___ 5.0 ___ snowlover2 (8.5) ... RJay, rtd208, jaxjagman (all 7.5) ... NorthArlington101 (7.0) ...Stebo (5.5)

1 1 0 ___ 5.0 ___ jburns (7.5), Roger Smith (7.0)

3 2 1 ___ 5.0 ___ crownweather (8.5), jbamafanwx (7.0)

3 1 1 ___ 4.5 ___ UIWwildthing, jackstraw and hlcater (all 6.5) ... mryanwilkes (4.5)

2 0 0 ___ 4.5 ___ Orangeburgwx (7.5)

1 0 0 ___ 4.0 ___ AfewUniv b n and NHC mid-range (both 8.0) ... OSUmetstud and Contest Normal (7.5)

Leading total score so far is 9.5 out of a possible 10 for pcbjr, followed by 9.0 for blunder storm, cobalt and Yoda.

NCforecaster89, crownweather and snowlover2 have 8.5 points.

on to August which accounts for 12 points, and errors are now full strength deductions until Nov-Dec.

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19 hours ago, yoda said:

Do subtropical storms count if the storm never becomes tropical?  I am guessing so.. just wondering

Debby became tropical... so I guess the point is moot

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On 8/7/2018 at 1:24 PM, yoda said:

Do subtropical storms count if the storm never becomes tropical?  I am guessing so.. just wondering

Yes. Subtrops that never go tropical are still named and counted in post-season analysis.

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I'm wondering how many Augusts have performed worse than this one at 2/0/0 which looks rather likely to be the final count. 

You might have to go back to those low count years around 1910. 

If 2/0/0 holds up, then these will be the scores (and they are generally not a pretty sight) out of 12 possible points. Updates also through June, July and August combined.

2 1 0 __ 11.0 __ hlcater (new total Jun-Jul-Aug 17.5)

3 1 1 ___ 9.0 __ snowlover 2 (JJA 17.5), UIWWildthing (JJA 15.5) 

3 2 1 ___ 7.0 __ Yoda (JJA 16.0), crownweather (JJA 15.5), NCforecaster89 (JJA 15.5), ncskywarn (JJA 15.0),

_ _ _ ___________ afewUniv b n (JJA 15.0), NHC mid-range (JJA 15.0), jburns (JJA 14.5), Stebo (JJA 12.5).

4 2 0 ___ 6.0 __ pcbjr (JJA 15.5), SRRTA22 (JJA 13.5)

3.7/2.2/1_5.2 __ Contest mean (JJA 13.1)

4 2 1 ___ 5.0 __ cobalt (JJA 14.0), blunder storm (JJA 14.0), contest normal (JJA 12.5), consensus, (JJA 12.5),

_ _ _ ___________ NorthArlington101 (JJA12.0), jbamafanwx (JJA 12.0), jackstraw (JJA 11.5)

4 2 2 ___ 3.0 __ Rtd208 (JJA 10.5)

5 2 0 ___ 3.0 __ OSUmetstud (JJA 10.5)

3 3 2 ___ 2.0 __ jaxjagman (JJA 9.5)

4 3 1 ___ 1.0 __ RJay (JJA 8.5), mryanwilkes (JJA 5.5)

4 3 2 ___ 0.0 __ Roger Smith (JJA 7.0)

7 5 2 ___ 0.0 __ Orangeburgwx (JJA 7.5)

 

These scores will be adjusted if any further tropical storm activity occurs in August, or confirmed around September 1st if not. 

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Come on Potential Tropical Cyclone SIX! I'm counting on you to become Florence within 24 hours! Note: It's almost certainly a fish storm with some minor impacts on Cape Verde. I see nothing wrong in rooting for it at least the way I see it. Of course if it were on course for land I wouldn't be as enthusiastic about its development.

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Just for clarification, the contest rules state that storms that begin their life cycle in a given month then go on to count in that month regardless of when they begin the higher stages, but I always score both ways so people can compare. It has often happened in past contests that an Aug 30 or 31 storm becomes a hurricane in early September (all counting for August).

As to the timing of the named storm portion, that has been based on EDT in the past contests, not UTC. That effectively means that 03z is the cutoff for this system (No. 6) to count in August. If it isn't a tropical storm by 03z, its further development goes into September. Classification as T.D. Six would not change the timing. 

I can't see anyone being adversely affected by Florence hitting the books for August so I think we're all rooting for this -- most scores would gain about 2 or 3 points. 

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The clock has run out on TD6 as a potential named storm in August, the 03z advisory maintains it as a tropical depression, so its future exploits (if any) will belong to September. 

The scores listed above will now become confirmed for the contest to date. 

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On 8/30/2018 at 11:50 PM, BlunderStorm said:

Come on Potential Tropical Cyclone SIX! I'm counting on you to become Florence within 24 hours! Note: It's almost certainly a fish storm with some minor impacts on Cape Verde. I see nothing wrong in rooting for it at least the way I see it. Of course if it were on course for land I wouldn't be as enthusiastic about its development.

...

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Don't feel bad about that post, the models had Florence turning north long before where the storm is now. And the original set of projections was a maximum intensity of strong tropical storm. Florence was kind enough to wait for the calendar to flip over before getting a name, so far I don't have any reason to issue two scoring tables. 

September is only one third over and already the count is 4/3/1 with a chance to go 4/3/2 or (outside chance) 4/3/3 if either Helene or Isaac make major hurricane status.

The season is now up to 9/5/1 and could go to 9/5/2 or 9/5/3 with the existing storms. 

It seems like a wide-open contest at this point as we could go back into slumber mode, or keep up this new pace, or something in between. 

My habit is to start posting full scoring on a provisional basis once September is known, based on our consensus for Oct and Nov-Dec and then adjusting the scoring table whenever reality changes that consensus. So by mid-October you should have a pretty good idea how you stand in this contest. 

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With Joyce the count goes to 5/3/1 but now has little chance of increasing in the major category as Helene failed to reach that level and Isaac never got much past minimal cat-1.

The seasonal count is now 10/5/1. See previous post for other comments about how the contest wraps up into October. 

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Provisional scoring -- based on Oct and Nov-Dec consensus forecasts

At this point, I am going to show you the scoring based on current September 7/3/1 figures although it would not be overly surprising to see that change to 8/3/1 or some other variation. Then with the assumptions explained in edits below, I calculate the scores for Oct (10 points) and Nov-Dec (2 points) based on our consensus forecasts being correct (2 1 1 for Oct, 1 0 0 for Nov-Dec). Those predictions are added to the current seasonal count (12/5/1) (edit now 14/7/2) to generate a provisional seasonal total of 15/6/2.  (edit Oct 3 -- September by contest rules is now 7/4/1 and that causes the seasonal provisional total to become 15/7/2 ... edit Oct 7 -- Michael's evolution including possible major status is handled by these provisional numbers but if the hurricane does become a major (confirmed Oct 9), the seasonal confirmed count will be 13/7/2, as of now it is 13/7/1)

 -- updated to 14/7/2 with Michael at cat-3 and Nadine a new TS.

 

The scores shown here are not necessarily the best outcome for you, if your forecasts are higher than consensus you could score considerably more points in both that month and the seasonal, so as we move forward into October, the actual count will possibly cause changes in this table (if the count is not converging on these consensus values).

Top 15 ranks are shown beside provisional totals -- the scoring table is now in scoring order. Ranks for normals, consensus, NHC have an asterisk * beside number in brackets and do not affect lower ranked participants from this forum. These * type ranks are independent of each other, derived by position relative to lower scoring forecasters. The totals are also in italic for further separation from the contest scoring.

... (edit on Oct 3) _ Scoring has been updated as needed, as September goes to 7/4/1 under contest rules, Leslie attained hurricane status today ... seasonal forecasts are now scored against 15 7 2. I will provide an alternate scoring table with the hurricane portion of Leslie credited to October. That will appear later once any other month-overlap issues that might arise at end of October are known.  

... This scoring table is now in order of scores as confidence of an approximately correct outcome of the provisional scoring has been boosted by the evolution of Leslie to hurricane status and Michael attaining major hurricane status as well as Nadine being named. However, the scoring remains provisional within the framework outlined and will continue to be adjusted by any further developments. If October exceeds the 2 1 1 count in any way (in the contest scoring rules, Leslie's hurricane status is awarded to September), then the table will automatically be adjusted to that new count with Nov-Dec remaining 1 0 0 provisionally. 

 

FORECASTER _____________ SEASONAL __ May __ June ___ July _ August __ Sept ___ Oct _ Nov-Dec __ TOTAL (rank)

___ Points available ___________ 50 _______ -- ____ 4 _____ 6 ____ 12 _____ 16  ___ 10 ____ 2 ______ 100

Predictions in black, scores in red 

__ Scores based on _________ 15 7 2 50 ________ 000_ 220__ 200 12 _741 16_ 211 10_100 2 ____ 100

 

snowlover2 _________________16 5 2 46___100 __1003.5 _ 3105.0 _ 311 _ 62112 _ 210 9 _ 0001.5 ___ 86 ( 1 )

jburns _____________________15 8 4 46___100 __2002.5 _ 1105.0 _ 321 7 _ 54212 _ 21110 _ 100 2 ____ 84.5 ( 2 )

___ Contest Normal __________16 8 3 47___100 __1003.5 _ 1004.0 _ 421 _ 64115 _ 321 8 _ 0001.5 ___ 84.0 ( 3* )

NCforecaster89 _____________ 15 7 3 49___100 __1103.0 _ 210 5.5_ 321 7 _ 421 _ 21110 _ 100  2 ____ 83.5 ( 3 )

UIWWildthing _______________17 9 3 43___100 __2102.0 _ 3114.5 _ 311 _ 65114 _ 210 9 _ 0001.5 ___ 83.0 ( 4 )

___ NHC mid-range _________13 7 2.5 46.7_100 __0004.0 _ 1004.0 _ 321 7 _ 53112 _320.57.6_0001.5 ___82.8 ( 5*)

a few Universes below normal*_13 7 3 46___100 __0004.0 _ 1004.0 _ 321 7 _ 53112 _ 321 8 _ 0001.5 ____ 82.5 ( 5 )

Yoda ______________________13 6 2 46___100 __1003.5 _ 2105.5 _ 321 7 _ 521 10_ 110 8 _ 0001.5 ___ 81.5 ( 6 )

___ Contest mean __ see below ______46.2 _________ 2.7 ___ 5.2 ___ 5.2 ___ 11.1 ___ 8.9 ___ 1.8 ____ 81.1 (7*)

crownweather ______________ 14 7 3 48___100 __1003.5 _ 3215.0 _ 321 7 _ 421 _ 210 9 _ 0001.5 ____ 81.0 ( 7 )

___ Consensus ______________17 8 3 45___100 __2102.0 _ 2105.5 _ 421 _ 53211 _ 21110 _ 100 2 ____ 80.5 ( 8* )

NorthArlington101 ___________ 17 8 4 43___100 __2102.0 _ 3105.0 _ 421 _ 53211 _ 21110 _ 0001.5 ___ 77.5 ( 8 )

BlunderStorm _______________ 17 9 4 41___100 __1003.5 _ 2105.5 _ 421 _ 54212 _ 321 8 _ 100 2 ____ 77.0 ( 9 )

cobalt _____________________14 6 2 48___100 __1003.5 _ 2105.5 _ 421 _ 321 3 _ 210 9 _ 100 2 _____ 76.0 (10)

Stebo _____________________ 18 8 4 40___100 __3100.5 _ 3105.0 _ 321 _ 53211  _ 21110 _ 100 2 ___ 75.5 (11)

Rtd208 ____________________18 8 5 37___100 __2002.5 _ 3105.0 _ 422 _ 64214 _ 21110 _ 0001.5 ___ 73.0 (12)

hlcater ____________________ 17 7 2 47___100 __2102.0 _ 3114.5 _ 21011 _ 320 2 _ 521 3 _ 100 2 ____ 71.5 (13)

ncskywarn _________________ 15 11 4 37__ 100 __2102.0 _ 2206.0 _ 321 _ 432 8 _ 221 9 _ 1101.5 ___ 70.5 (14)

jaxjagman __________________17 9 4 41___100 __2002.5 _ 3105.0 _ 332 _ 53211  _ 320 7 _ 0001.5 ___ 70.0 (15)

OSUmetstud _______________ 13 5 1 43___ 100 __1003.5 _ 1004.0 _ 520 _ 421 _ 110 8 _ 0001.5 ___ 69.0 

jbamafanwx ________________18 10 5 32__ 100 __2102.0 _ 3215.0 _ 421 5 _ 54212 _ 21110 _ 100 2 ____ 68.0 

mryanwilkes _______________ 17 9 4 41___ 100 __3200.0 _ 3114.5 _ 431 _ 53211 _ 100 7 _ 0001.5 ___ 66.0

RJay ______________________19 9 3 36___100 __2002.5 _ 3105.0 _ 431 _ 53211 _ 320 7 _ 100 2 ____ 64.5

pcbjr _____________________ 11 5 1 36___ 100 __0004.0 _ 2105.5 _ 420 _ 321 3 _ 100 7 _ 0001.5 ___ 63.0

Jackstraw __________________20 10 4 26__ 100 __2102.0 _ 3114.5 _ 421 5 _ 84214 _ 220 8 _ 0001.5 ___ 61.0

Orangeburgwx ______________19 9 4 34 ___100 __1103.0 _ 2004.5 _ 752 _ 421 _ 311 9 _ 100 2 ____ 59.5

SRRTA22 __________________ 22 9 4 16 __ 100 __2102.0 _ 3205.5 _ 420 _ 431 _ 532 0 _ 321 0 ____ 38.5

Roger Smith _______________ 21 15 7 00__ 100 __2102.0 _ 1105.0 _ 432 _ 75312 _ 542 0 _ 1101.5 ___ 20.5

________________________________________________________________________________

Contest means _____________16.5_8.2_3.4__100__1.6_0.5_0__2.4_1.0_0.2

_________________________________________________________________3.7_2.2_1.0__4.8_3.0_1.5

__________________________________________________________________________________2.3_1.4_0.6__0.5_0.2_0.0

________scores ________________  46.2 ___________2.7 ___ 5.2 ___ 5.2 ___ 11.1 ___ 8.9 ___ 1.8 ______ 81.1 ( 7* )

(Consensus is the contest mean rounded off to nearest whole number -- these rounded off monthly numbers add up to 17 8 4)

 ________________________________________________________________

The alternate scoring (assigning status changes to months, applies to Leslie becoming a hurricane Oct 2) will be available after the scoring passes Nov 1st or any situations that might arise end of October into early November. At the moment, alternate scoring would be based on same seasonal, Sep 7 3 1 and Oct 2 2 1 actual and 2 2 1 provisional. Your scores will change by zero if your September change is the reverse of your October change.

These are the changes foreseen if no other alternate scoring occurs:

1. snowlover2 gains one, total 87.0 (remains first)

2. jcburns loses two, total 82.5 (fifth in this alternate system)

3. NCForecaster89 gains one, total 84.5 (tied second in this system)

4. UIWWildthing loses three, total 80.0  (seventh in this system)

5. AfewUniv b n gains three, total 84.5 (tied second in this system)

6. Yoda gains one, total 83.5 (fourth in this system)

7. Crownweather gains one, total 82.0 (sixth in this system)

8. NorthArlington101 stays level, total 77.5 (remains eighth)

9. Blunder Storm stays level, total 77.0 (now tied ninth)

10. cobalt gains one, total 77.0 (moves into tie for ninth)

11. Stebo stays level, total 75.5 (11th)

12. Rtd208 loses two, total 71.5 (15th)

13. hlcater gains three, total 74.5 (12th)

14. ncskywarn gains two, total 72.5 (13th)

15. jaxjagman gains two, total 72.0 (14th)

A more complete accounting of changes will appear in the final alternate table.

Note: the contest official scoring is in the table above this section, this is FYI only. 

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Contest update: 

The previous post contains provisional scoring that was based on consensus forecasts for October (2 1 1 ) and Nov-Dec (1 0 0 ).

As of the last hour, the October provisional is the actual count with Michael attaining major status and Nadine a new tropical storm. The current seasonal total is 14 7 2. The operating provisional seasonal total is therefore 15 7 2. 

As explained in the post above, September went to 7 4 1 when Leslie attained hurricane intensity on Oct 2 (contest rules keep all status changes with the month of first naming). However, an alternate scoring table will be provided with the status changes in their actual months. That would make September 7 3 1 and October 2 2 1. The effects on the top seven ranked scores are shown below the scoring table but that table is the official contest scoring (estimated for now). 

From now to end of contest, all changes to the scoring will be based on actual rather than projected events with the exception that we will carry 1 0 0 for Nov-Dec until such time as it either becomes exceeded or appears more likely to turn out 0 0 0 (a change that I might make after Nov 15th if it seemed appropriate). Then the contest runs officially to end of December. 

 

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