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CT Rain

May 15 2018 Severe Threat SNE

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ww0095_overview_big_wou.gif

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 95
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   145 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Southern Connecticut
     Northern Delaware
     Northeast Maryland
     New Jersey
     Southeast New York
     Eastern Pennsylvania
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until
     1100 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging winds expected with isolated significant
       gusts to 80 mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe storms will continue east from
   central Pennsylvania. Embedded bowing structures should result in
   widespread damaging winds.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
   statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north
   northwest of Wilmington DE to 45 miles east southeast of Islip NY.
   For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
   outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

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A SVR was just dropped on the cell headed toward Columbia County.  That narrow corridor extending to the WSW has been blossoming... CI must have partially eroded through there at least.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wow,... 87/65 here

CAPE must be high -

1000 J/kg across most of SNE with 2000 J/kg over western CT. There's a 3000 J/kg lolli near NYC.

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mcd0427.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0427
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0138 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast Pennsylvania...southern New
   York...southwest New England

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 94...96...

   Valid 151838Z - 152045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 94, 96 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across the tornado watch
   area, with large, damaging hail, severe wind gusts and a threat of a
   few tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Storms oriented along the old outflow boundary have
   increased markedly in the last hour, with a few hail cores now
   exceeding 2.00". Cells were initially splitting per 18Z observed ALB
   straight line hodograph, but the southern cells are becoming
   dominant. Southwesterly low-level winds will continue feeding these
   cells with unstable air, and they may increasingly take on supercell
   characteristics over the next few hours. Any deviant motion of these
   cells to the south will likely result in strengthening mesocyclones,
   and perhaps a few tornadoes. Wind driven, damaging hail is also
   likely.

   ..Jewell.. 05/15/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...BGM...

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Tornado Tuesday underway...  three warned cells that look legit gated on velocity channels...  Watch the NW Mass line it's just taking off...

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6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Curious what the interpretation of this product is ...I have no familiarization with it.  

It appears to be outlining probability (contouring) with embedded modeled supercell production?  

If so ... that HRW NSSL long tracked SC right down the Mass Turnpike is a hoot riot! :)   I mean, Great Barrington over Springfield to over Worcester to over downtown Boston ...that's like the Monson event on steroids.. 

Contours are probability of (in this case) updraft helicity greater than 75 m2/s2. With the individual model swaths of 75 plus shown. A good discriminator for supercell structure.

The same product for 150 m2/s2 is fairly impressive too.

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BGM issued TORNADO WARNING for Southern Delaware/Northern Sullivan counties and stated that is has hail to size of tennis balls

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
244 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

NYC105-151900-
/O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180515T1900Z/
Sullivan NY-
244 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
SULLIVAN COUNTY...

At 243 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Livingston Manor, or near Liberty, moving east at 55
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Willowemoc around 250 PM EDT.
  Neversink, Loch Sheldrake and Woodbourne around 255 PM EDT.
  Grahamsville around 300 PM EDT.

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