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May 15 2018 Severe Threat SNE


CT Rain
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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Big day ahead folks for NE PA and SE NY as clusters of supercells take advantage of instability/mechanics early ... and fan their exhaust and light rain and gentle thunder over areas of CT/MA/RI..    

 

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6 hours ago, OKpowdah said:

This is a pretty telling picture. Strong agreement among the CAMs like you said. Widespread severe event looks likely.


uh25_004hmax_pb075_ne.f02200.thumb.png.27ff425b12e5ba6c1d88f54f098c394e.png

Curious what the interpretation of this product is ...I have no familiarization with it.  

It appears to be outlining probability (contouring) with embedded modeled supercell production?  

If so ... that HRW NSSL long tracked SC right down the Mass Turnpike is a hoot riot! :)   I mean, Great Barrington over Springfield to over Worcester to over downtown Boston ...that's like the Monson event on steroids.. 

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cluster of activity racing through NYS will probably clip NW zones of SNE and impact S VT ...western NH toward noon (or even prior). 

These elements are really hauling arse!  An early ominous indicator for mid level tropospheric momentum and organizing winds in down-bursts aggregation - I could almost see that overwhelming the discrete cellular in lieu of macro-bursting... 

Otherwise... watch for a S propagating outflow from this early transgressor because that might move out some 20 or 30 miles from the transit axis and serve as a trigger perhaps ? 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

PIT sounding from 12z launch. My mom always said never to look at porn this early but...

 

PIT.gif

Wow. GOES16 shows unbroken sun all the way back through PA. EML is moving in, sun is coming out. The lid is on the pot, the pot is in the fire, only a matter of time until we boil.

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