AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 9, 2018 Share Posted May 9, 2018 Tendency for high heights in the Arctic circle has been strong. If this holds, favors a lot of Atlantic recurving storms. 2009,2010,2011,2014,2015 Central Atlantic ridge at 850mb was strongest ever this Winter, up to +30% of mean average (Dec-Feb)! It reversed March with -NAO and has generally been NAO driven through April and early May. My guess is it would come back for the Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThisIsNotSparta Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 Still looking uncertain, but I'd say a normal season is the best bet right now. It's whether the MDR can warm up and if so, how much, and when El Niño sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 AMO and El Nino are show a pretty strong signal for below average activity. Probably going to need the Gulf, Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic to produce if this is going to be a decent season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 27, 2018 Author Share Posted June 27, 2018 El Nino is fading.. get ready for a spike in hurricane activity. 12-13 before, now 14-16 I think. Hadley Cells are really far north so look for SE, US possible hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThisIsNotSparta Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 El Nino is fading.. get ready for a spike in hurricane activity. 12-13 before, now 14-16 I think. Hadley Cells are really far north so look for SE, US possible hits. Niño is fading? What? The signal for an event becomes stronger each day, plus the very cold MDR will act to suppress the season. If both manage to not affect the season, the EPAC will hurt it anywaySent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 Both the GFS and the Euro have a AEW that teeters on the edge of being a TD for a couple of days this week before getting ripped a part. Would be interesting to see something this far east this early in the season even if it's weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 4, 2018 Share Posted July 4, 2018 95L invest is now with us in the central Atlantic Ocean 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 4, 2018 Share Posted July 4, 2018 There is a small well defined vortex, the kind that's usually underestimated by guidance. 95L would be a TD already maybe even a TS if there was a recon. Still has another 24-36hrs before the environment becomes too hostile. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 Feels like a lot of activity coming,.. Atlantic is heating up, Will likely be no cooler SSTA's than last few years. Edit: Nice for this almost-June invest to be right in the hard of cold Atlantic water anomalies (since 1995). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 Low shear + Lots of dry air + Warm water = Midget Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 Going to be a boring quick TS... gone in like 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 Intensity estimates are up to 45 knots, which is above the original intensity forecast. Spaghettis also have higher intensity estimates with some getting into strong TS area. Noticeable shift south of the main islands (PR, DR, etc) on 18z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Beryl up to 65 mph at 11pm advisory... still expected to dissipate before reaching the islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 I doubted it was 65mph at 11pm, but low and behold the Atlantic is the new Gulf of Aden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 We officially have official Hurricane Beryl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 Beryl is a compact hurricane that had a pinhole eye for a few hours before more recently becoming cloud filled again. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.0/65 kt at 12Z, but the Dvorak technique is constrained by width requirements of the convective cloud tops. That may not be applicable in this case given Beryl's extremely small size. By disregarding the width constraints, TAFB was able to provide a data-T number of T4.5/77 kt. As a compromise, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt. Beryl has not gained much latitude and is still moving quickly westward with a 12-hour motion estimate of 275/13 kt. Mid-level ridging over the subtropical Atlantic is expected to steer Beryl on a westward to west-northwestward course through the forecast period. An acceleration is forecast to begin in 36-48 hours once Beryl becomes situated to the south of the core of the mid-level anticyclone. Some of the track models have already shown a northward bias since the cyclone formed yesterday, and the updated NHC track forecast is therefore south of the typically better- performing models. This new forecast is not too different from the previous NHC track and is also just south of the HCCA model and the various model consensus aids. Despite the SHIPS model diagnostics showing increasing shear in a few days, global model fields show a well-defined upper-level anticyclone following the system at least for the next 3 days. Although Beryl's expected acceleration may contribute to some increased shear, the SHIPS model is also probably calculating deep-layer shear over too large an area to accurately capture the shear isolated to the cyclone's scale. Given that, the NHC intensity forecast is at or above nearly all of the guidance through 48 hours, which is also higher than what we've been depicting in previous forecasts. Needless to say, it's becoming more likely that Beryl will maintain hurricane strength when it reaches the Lesser Antilles between 48 and 72 hours. The cyclone is also now likely to persist beyond the 72-hour forecast point, and a 96-hour point has therefore been added to the official forecast, showing Beryl near or over Hispaniola by day 4. By that point, either increased shear or the terrain of Hispaniola would likely lead to dissipation. But we shall see. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is now expected to be a hurricane when it moves through the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are increasing. However, Beryl is a very small hurricane, and it is too early to determine exactly where those impacts will occur. Hurricane watches could be needed for portions of the Lesser Antilles as soon as tonight. 2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 10.7N 46.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 11.3N 47.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 12.2N 50.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 13.3N 53.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 14.2N 56.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 16.2N 64.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 18.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 ...BRAZEN BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER... ...NOW FORECAST TO STILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 46.5W ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Beryl, as hurricane watches could be needed for some of the islands by tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 46.5 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to begin over the weekend and continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Beryl is expected to still be a hurricane when it reaches the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday. Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea. Beryl is a compact hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 14, 2018 Share Posted July 14, 2018 Door slightly opens for a TC to impact the east coast late next week, as a deep trough is showing up on most guidance moving across the plains, accompanied by a stronger WAR. GEFS are hinting at potential for TC development off the SE coast during that time frame. Just something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 On 7/14/2018 at 8:51 AM, jbenedet said: Door slightly opens for a TC to impact the east coast late next week, as a deep trough is showing up on most guidance moving across the plains, accompanied by a stronger WAR. GEFS are hinting at potential for TC development off the SE coast during that time frame. Just something to watch. Damn impressive JB, models I just looked at show a tropical storm of an intensity near 50-knots hitting the mid Cape Cod region, with Nantucket receiving winds over 55mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 CFS looks the best and it still isn't good. Going to have a lot of trouble getting anything from Africa or the Caribbean this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 On 7/17/2018 at 3:02 PM, Amped said: CFS looks the best and it still isn't good. Going to have a lot of trouble getting anything from Africa or the Caribbean this year. With the developing EL Nino, this tropical season looks like a big dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: With the developing EL Nino, this tropical season looks like a big dud. was not hurricane mathew a cat 5 cape verde storm during a el-nino season.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 I find it a bit odd that the NHC hasn't flagged this system with moderate to high probs for development into a tropical/sub tropical cyclone yet. I'm not sure what it's classifying it as (A Nor' Easter in middle of Summer in the sub tropics???), but there's clearly a Mid Level circulation off the coast of North Carolina based on radar and visible satellite, and the guidance consensus track takes this over SST's that are marginally supportive of maintaining tropical characteristics as it moves north and then northwestward towards the Del Marva... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CyclonicFury Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 On 7/21/2018 at 10:53 AM, jbenedet said: I find it a bit odd that the NHC hasn't flagged this system with moderate to high probs for development into a tropical/sub tropical cyclone yet. I'm not sure what it's classifying it as (A Nor' Easter in middle of Summer in the sub tropics???), but there's clearly a Mid Level circulation off the coast of North Carolina based on radar and visible satellite, and the guidance consensus track takes this over SST's that are marginally supportive of maintaining tropical characteristics as it moves north and then northwestward towards the Del Marva... Probably because of its non-tropical nature and that it has frontal features. Even a subtropical cyclone must be non-frontal to classify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted July 23, 2018 Author Share Posted July 23, 2018 Maybe there is too much water around 20N-30N for cyclones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 On 7/21/2018 at 10:38 AM, nycwinter said: was not hurricane mathew a cat 5 cape verde storm during a el-nino season.. Joaquin and Andrew were. They were both below normal ACE seasons, which this one will likely be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/21/2018 at 10:38 AM, nycwinter said: was not hurricane mathew a cat 5 cape verde storm during a el-nino season.. Matthew achieved cat 5 intensity during a neutral ENSO (ASO) in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 On 7/23/2018 at 3:42 PM, Amped said: Joaquin and Andrew were. They were both below normal ACE seasons, which this one will likely be. Joaquin reached 135 kt at its peak, just short of a cat 5. Andrew actually occured during a very Neutral ENSO for ASO in 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted July 25, 2018 Share Posted July 25, 2018 Speaking of EL Nino, here's a copy of a tweet I shared recently: Latest seasonal update from CSU; via @philklotzbach, is close to Avg of last three #Elnino #hurricane seasons: 2006 = 10/5/2 2009 = 9/3/2 2015 = 11/4/2 Avg. = 10/4/2 USA landfalls: 2006 = 3/0/0 2009 = 2/0/0 2015 = 2/0/0 5 of 7 TS strikes outside of Aug-Oct peak, 0 #hurricanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 The pattern of the A/B high looks to favor a US landfall cyclone if one develops in the next 14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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