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may 10-16 convection


forkyfork

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1 minute ago, Drz1111 said:

And meanwhile, back in Lewisburg PA, our QLCS/Derecho is going APE****.  Lest we get distracted by the once-a-decade supercell train going on in the mid-Hudson Valley. 

Yes that line is starting to look serious! Thank god I purchased renter's insurance today :) I had this feeling.....

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Alright, latest update as I can see it:

-our best developed sup, the storm that started wrapping-up  near Saugerties and which looked textbook for a while, just hit some higher terrain and occluded a touch and my guess will be is about to cycle again when it hits the Housatonic valley near Sheffield.

 

- the sup behind it, near Kingston, seems is flashing low-level rotation off and on.  Could flare at any time.

- the monster HP storm over the Catskills is about to drop into the valley where winds are backed, and I expect a party.

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I rarely become intrigued by severe threats in the coastal Northeast, but this is indubitably a set-up which is more felicitous than most we have seen over the past several years. The novel variable that differentiates the present potential is the rapid diminution of dew points in the mid-levels, the proxy for which is the, "Elevated Mixed Layer," and as such, obviates the development of energy-eroding, lower-intensity, multicellular storms. This enables the proverbial top of the pot to boil over suddenly, such that explosive updrafts can form. We have already seen that. An emerging cold pool, in concert with highly auspicious low and (more importantly) mid-level lapse rates, enhanced lifted indices, CAPE (in other words: sfc based, diurnally elicited instability is present), robust bulk shear of predominately unidirectional nature, all juxtaposed this afternoon. There will be a significant decrease in SB instability over the eastern half of Long Island, and potentially the immediate beaches of NJ. But the vast majority of the area will have a moderate to high probability for strong to severe convection between 6-8pm. This is about as classic as it gets for a widespread wind damage potential, in terms of the preconditioning.

Currently 89.2F/72 here.

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3 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

As someone who's never gone through a severe weather season in a coastal area, this is the ideal setup for getting severe conditions into the city, right?

Literally perfect.  NW flow downslopes off of higher terrain; westerly flow still downslopes but not as dramatically and a smidge further from the city.

 

You might have a better chance of a tornado with convection along a warm front, particularly late season when the marine influence isn't as strong, but for big hail and big straight line winds today is the setup.

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