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'Tis the season, but no one wants it


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GFS and FV3 GFS like the setup. Euro and GGEM not so much.   GFS really just fights off the windshear  by building up a large area with high pwat that fights it's way north.  Probably wrong, Eruo and CMC keep most of the -SLP anaomolies near the central American coast.

 

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GFS and FV3 GFS like the setup. Euro and GGEM not so much.   GFS really just fights off the windshear  by building up a large area with high pwat that fights it's way north.  Probably wrong, Eruo and CMC keep most of the -SLP anaomolies near the central American coast.
 

The 0z Euro finally came onboard with showing something as well.


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At least it's backing off the doomsday scenario for late next week. Plus, this current disturbance doesn't have much opportunity to become anything too strong (just some heavy rain in Fla./Southeast U.S.). Perhaps we've bought ourselves some additional downtime before the tropical season officially starts!

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General question for those with quite a bit more tropical knowledge then myself.  Does the current long range thoughts (season in general) support earlier activity and if so where would that activity likely be focused?  Trying to figure out if early season Atlantic coast landfalls have a higher chance of occurrence in this year’s long range setup seeing as the long range GFS no spits out an east coast cane end of the month.

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@hazwoper, the official joint NHC/CPC tropical outlook for the upcoming season will be out next week. I don't know what it will say yet - plus I'm not allowed to reveal it anyway, until it's publicly launched - but in general, early season activity is in the relatively warm waters of the Gulf (right where the GFS and not Euro are indicating for next week, like @bdgwx and @Chicago Storm alluded to). Then by mid July onward, the activity can be anywhere in the tropics as the classic African-waves-into-the-Atlantic storms start to ramp up. In short, early and late season storms usually involve the Gulf.

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GFS tries to sneak a weak low up the east coast next weekend.

Euro stalls it near New Orleans.   CMC is in the FL panhandle, and the UKMET has nothing.

I consider the GFS the outlier cause it has the Bermuda high further east and weaker.

Euro would dump a lot of rain over LA AL MS and FL.

EDIT: 12z Euro hugs the LA coast for at least 4 days.   Has support from the FV3

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