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2018 Mountains and Foothills Spring/Summer thread


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NAM appears to be an outlier. It continues to be furthest north and east, like over VA/TN line on Monday.  Whereas the GFS, Euro, GEFS, and EPS, all have it over Knoxville Monday morning. NAM not known for its skill with hurricanes...global models might be onto something here.  Need to see where Florence is at 12Z Sunday. That will decide who gets rain and how much. Fairly robust differences in track even at this stage...has major forecast implications. 

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2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

NAM appears to be an outlier. It continues to be furthest north and east, like over VA/TN line on Monday.  Whereas the GFS, Euro, GEFS, and EPS, all have it over Knoxville Monday morning. NAM not known for its skill with hurricanes...global models might be onto something here.  Need to see where Florence is at 12Z Sunday. That will decide who gets rain and how much. Fairly robust differences in track even at this stage...has major forecast implications. 

Agree. Euro is concerning on two fronts. The amount of rain it lays down along with 70 mph gusts it shows. A lot of Mets getting worried about this now as it’s showig up on other models now. 

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3 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Agree. Euro is concerning on two fronts. The amount of rain it lays down along with 70 mph gusts it shows. A lot of Mets getting worried about this now as it’s showig up on other models now. 

Just examined both 12Z GFS and Euro.  Totally concur with this statement. Both models move Florence west of Asheville (and now HRRR seems to be latching onto this idea). I know I put out a rainfall outlook last night, but that may need to be revised....up.  Flow is just too strong with PWATs over 2.00", even in the mountains (!!!), so rain rates will be efficient. Watch this space. 

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2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Just examined both 12Z GFS and Euro.  Totally concur with this statement. Both models move Florence west of Asheville (and now HRRR seems to be latching onto this idea). I know I put out a rainfall outlook last night, but that may need to be revised....up.  Flow is just too strong with PWATs over 2.00", even in the mountains (!!!), so rain rates will be efficient. Watch this space. 

Will be interesting the next 12 hours. By tomorrow morning we should have good idea where that enhanced area of heavy rain will set up shop. 

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25 minutes ago, BretWheatley said:

Latest HRRR has it headed into northeast Georgia and then drifting south a bit (?) 

I see that too.  Interesting evolution, especially for NW Piedmont (which would be significantly drier).  Wetter solution for southern escarpment, despite the model not responding with enough QPF.

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10 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

2.38" at my house in southwest Buncombe County since 7pm last night.

This matches up perfectly with the radar totals. This IS one of those instances where the Asheville valley shelter is doing it's work. That is not held true with several winter events, but has definitely held true here. That is a lot of rain for you!!  

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14 hours ago, HurricaneTracker said:

I see that too.  Interesting evolution, especially for NW Piedmont (which would be significantly drier).  Wetter solution for southern escarpment, despite the model not responding with enough QPF.

Thanks for the input i always appreciate your analysis I dont talk alot but been a long time lurker since 2010. One thing i learned if tracker met85 or hunter post its about to get interesting. Hunker down and stay safe fellas. 

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Thanks everyone. You guys are a great crowd!

Storm total now 3.52" and it’s really coming down. Radar keeps filling in...classic upslope.

 

EDIT: surface low appears much far west and south than any model had. Seems somewhere in the vicinity between Augusta, GA and Columbia, SC. This will have implications later!

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28 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Thanks everyone. You guys are a great crowd!

Storm total now 3.52" and it’s really coming down. Radar keeps filling in...classic upslope.

 

EDIT: surface low appears much far west and south than any model had. Seems somewhere in the vicinity between Augusta, GA and Columbia, SC. This will have implications later!

Hmm Euro like. 

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33 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Thanks everyone. You guys are a great crowd!

Storm total now 3.52" and it’s really coming down. Radar keeps filling in...classic upslope.

 

EDIT: surface low appears much far west and south than any model had. Seems somewhere in the vicinity between Augusta, GA and Columbia, SC. This will have implications later!

Will this have any implications for the southern escarpment?

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1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

I’m not sure folks realize but this thing is just really getting cranked up for the southern and eastern escarpment as upslope flow will last through the night. 

100%!  Track made all the difference. Upslope will turn from easterly to southeast through the day and southerly overnight. This is why I said NAM was an outlier and QPF was too low from HRRR and other models. We don’t even maximize our precipitable water until 8pm this evening. 

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1 minute ago, HurricaneTracker said:

100%!  Track made all the difference. Upslope will turn from easterly to southeast through the day and southerly overnight. This is why I said NAM was an outlier and QPF was too low from HRRR and other models. We don’t even maximize our precipitable water until 8pm this evening. 

You’re right. You been sniffing this one out from the beginning! 

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