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WxWatcher007

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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50 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Pops a tropical system in the Caribbean and tracks it north - almost looks like Sandy - but it wasn't on any prior run so it's probably a phantom. And it's way out there 300+ hours

Not surprising really. At that point in time is when High pressure builds out West and a trough starts to form to our West , also at that same time rising air is once again focused in the SW Atlantic and SSTs remain above normal.  Similiar to the last uptick in Atlantic tropical activity . 

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2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

This will be one of the iconic images from the entire event:

 

Wow. 

It was a white knuckle drive all the way through NC today. As bad as it is currently in the southern and eastern parts of the state, it’s going to get worse with all time river flooding coming this week. The roads I was able to pass over today won’t be passable tomorrow.

 I have to admit, it was a sobering sight. I think the state, to the extent this can be said respectfully, was fortunate this didn’t hit as a category four hurricane. The wind combined with surge and water would have been catastrophic for a far larger number of people.

That said, it’s infuriating to have seen some of the posts trying to minimize what has happened. The SS scale is outdated. Just because a major city or metropolitan area wasn’t leveled, it doesn’t mean it wasn’t the storm of a lifetime for some. Not every storm is the worst storm we’ve ever seen. That doesn’t mean it can’t be catastrophic for many.

*steps off soapbox*

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Wow. 

It was a white knuckle drive all the way through NC today. As bad as it is currently in the southern and eastern parts of the state, it’s going to get worse with all time river flooding coming this week. The roads I was able to pass over today won’t be passable tomorrow.

 I have to admit, it was a sobering sight. I think the state, to the extent this can be said respectfully, was fortunate this didn’t hit as a category four hurricane. The wind combined with surge and water would have been catastrophic for a far larger number of people.

That said, it’s infuriating to have seen some of the posts trying to minimize what has happened. The SS scale is outdated. Just because a major city or metropolitan area wasn’t leveled, it doesn’t mean it wasn’t the storm of a lifetime for some. Not every storm is the worst storm we’ve ever seen. That doesn’t mean it can’t be catastrophic for many.

*steps off soapbox*

I'm really curious what the storm surge numbers will end up being. First, I'm glad to see the NHC start to de-couple surge values from the SS scale (like in this document: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/surge_intro.pdf). We know some specific locations such as New Bern and Wilmington set highest water levels. There are some hints now that some of the Atlantic beaches may have also seen very impressive surges. 

We'll see. If it ends up that Florence beat Fran in the surge department throughout much of the coastline, then the only thing that really could have been much more "historic" for the coastline is the wind. One aspect of the wind that was highly unusual for a storm this far north is how readily inland stations gusted to 70+ mph. That speaks how spread out the wind shield was. Kind of like how Irma taking the path it did (into Cuba and then the west coast of FL) weakened the storm significantly but exposed more of the FL peninsula to dirty-side hurricane force gusts than a just-west of Miami path would have. 

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10 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

I'm really curious what the storm surge numbers will end up being. First, I'm glad to see the NHC start to de-couple surge values from the SS scale (like in this document: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/surge_intro.pdf). We know some specific locations such as New Bern and Wilmington set highest water levels. There are some hints now that some of the Atlantic beaches may have also seen very impressive surges. 

We'll see. If it ends up that Florence beat Fran in the surge department throughout much of the coastline, then the only thing that really could have been much more "historic" for the coastline is the wind. One aspect of the wind that was highly unusual for a storm this far north is how readily inland stations gusted to 70+ mph. That speaks how spread out the wind shield was. Kind of like how Irma taking the path it did (into Cuba and then the west coast of FL) weakened the storm significantly but exposed more of the FL peninsula to dirty-side hurricane force gusts than a just-west of Miami path would have. 

Agreed. Not much more could have been done from a surge and inland flooding perspective IMO. I’d like to see those numbers as well. Before the station went down, Lumberton gusted to 69. The winds were even stronger where I was in the hours afterward. The wind field was impressive.

I think people are way too tied to wind speed and metropolitan/IMBY destruction. Water is the biggest killer and can destroy in a way that wind can’t. Sandy, Irene, Harvey, Floyd, Katrina...the list goes on. 

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Wow. 

It was a white knuckle drive all the way through NC today. As bad as it is currently in the southern and eastern parts of the state, it’s going to get worse with all time river flooding coming this week. The roads I was able to pass over today won’t be passable tomorrow.

 I have to admit, it was a sobering sight. I think the state, to the extent this can be said respectfully, was fortunate this didn’t hit as a category four hurricane. The wind combined with surge and water would have been catastrophic for a far larger number of people.

That said, it’s infuriating to have seen some of the posts trying to minimize what has happened. The SS scale is outdated. Just because a major city or metropolitan area wasn’t leveled, it doesn’t mean it wasn’t the storm of a lifetime for some. Not every storm is the worst storm we’ve ever seen. That doesn’t mean it can’t be catastrophic for many.

*steps off soapbox*

Well said 007. I agree 100% with your thoughts. Great reporting throughout the event. I always look forward to reading your input. Glad to hear you are safe. Take care.

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On 9/22/2018 at 8:36 PM, AdamHLG said:

Anything of interest for us long term? Lots of colors and shapes in the Atlantic on the NHC page. Missed this thread the past 4 days.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 

Nothing I see on the horizon. 

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11 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

Its a wrap I guess. Possible severe today. And then 240 hour winter model watching commences until next April.

 


Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 

 

Not sure it's a wrap yet. There tends to be a second peak during the first two-thirds of October before things really trail off. I think CV season is going to wind down soon, with Caribbean/homebrew storms becoming the main development area over time. For now though, I see no immediate threats to the US. 

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not sure it's a wrap yet. There tends to be a second peak during the first two-thirds of October before things really trail off. I think CV season is going to wind down soon, with Caribbean/homebrew storms becoming the main development area over time. For now though, I see no immediate threats to the US. 

Seen some talk by Larry Cosgrove and Raleigh Wx that the EC is vulnerable from poleward movement out of the Caribbean. 

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2 hours ago, Subtropics said:

Seen some talk by Larry Cosgrove and Raleigh Wx that the EC is vulnerable from poleward movement out of the Caribbean. 

Yeah, I haven't seen their specific comments but I agree. 

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Sandy Part 2. 

:lol: 

Well not thaaaat, but I don’t think it’s that hard to conceive of some kind of development in the western Caribbean under a lower shear regime that gets pulled north into the Gulf by a trough or NE into the southwest Atlantic before getting kicked by a follow up trough. The guidance has hinted at that kind of a steering pattern in the longer range.

Problem is the overall environment is hostile for development. Florence was somewhat fortunate (rather unfortunate given the damage done) to survive the transatlantic trek. 

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OT but I'm on vacation in Crete and a subtropical "Medicane" is forming off North Africa... Makes for a rainy couple of days but always wanted to experience one. Wonder if it's going to be a named system since it's technically in the Atlantic basin

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Most, if not all, models hinting at something in the SW Atlantic/Caribbean around day 10. Most models also have a deep trough in the center of the country around the same time.

12z GEFS....looks like something should be under that ridge.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_43.thumb.png.e6c586a46cf0492eba6046f7dfb01dd0.png

 

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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Latest GFS looks pretty interesting.

Whoever is in the path would get a deluge as it moves up from the southeast.

gfs_apcpn_us_26.png

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It's definitely worth watching for remnant action up the east coast. Still a bit early to hone in on eventual track since we don't have a consolidated low, but we were talking about the potential a week or so ago for a northern track :) 

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