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WxWatcher007

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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For the love of all things holy and unholy, let's not have this discussion again. 

Recon is closing in on Florence. HWRF has a SC/NC border landfall and continued westward motion. GFS and Para look to bring some moisture to the region, though the GFS somehow breaks a piece off and redevelops it off the SE coast for a new landfall :lol: 

recon_AF308-0906A-FLORENCE.png

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Can someone smart answer something for me?

Initially when a stall was showing up on the models, I thought it was because of the breakdown of steering currents. Then it eventually moved inland/slightly north.

Now a stall is forecast to happen, but then the storm is pushing south due to the strong ridge.

So what is causing the storm to stall now that the ridge seems to be taking over the steering of the storm? Is it just running up against the ridge, slowing down, then being forced out?

Hope that made sense.

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18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Can someone smart answer something for me?

Initially when a stall was showing up on the models, I thought it was because of the breakdown of steering currents. Then it eventually moved inland/slightly north.

Now a stall is forecast to happen, but then the storm is pushing south due to the strong ridge.

So what is causing the storm to stall now that the ridge seems to be taking over the steering of the storm? Is it just running up against the ridge, slowing down, then being forced out?

Hope that made sense.

Building West Atlantic ridge is currently steering it wnw and then nw to the coast. Right as it starts to try and turn the corner around the WAR and head north, a ridge building in from the great lakes blocks that escape causing it to stall in place and then start being pushed sw by these building ridges. That's the best I can explain it.

Both the WAR and the ridge building in from the great lakes have been trending stronger hence the push southward in landfall and post landfall 

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19 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

90% of this forum wants a major hurricane to track right up the bay. It is what it is, we love extreme weather. 

Personally I would like this hurricane to come straight up the bay as a category 3, veer left at the bay bridge, crawl up my boss's ass, intensify into a category 5, then start shooting out hydrochloric acid.  But that's off topic so I won't discuss that here.

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8 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said:

Personally I would like this hurricane to come straight up the bay as a category 3, veer left at the bay bridge, crawl up my boss's ass, intensify into a category 5, then start shooting out hydrochloric acid.  But that's off topic so I won't discuss that here.

Deleting my account NOW. can't stop laughing

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Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 1:12Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308 
Storm Number: 06
Storm Name: Florence (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 1Z on the 12th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb
Coordinates: 27.9N 68.2W
Location: 366 statute miles (590 km) to the SW (214°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
Marsden Square: 079 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
944mb (27.88 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.5°C (80°F) 300° (from the WNW) 9 knots (10 mph)
925mb 183m (600 ft) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 25.3°C (78°F) 345° (from the NNW) 11 knots (13 mph)
850mb 928m (3,045 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.0°C (72°F) 335° (from the NNW) 8 knots (9 mph)
700mb 2,616m (8,583 ft) 18.4°C (65.1°F) About 7°C (45°F) 135° (from the SE) 3 knots (3 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 0:59Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 27.88N 68.23W
- Time: 0:59:04Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 27.87N 68.22W
- Time: 1:02:53Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 330° (from the NNW)
- Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 350° (from the N)
- Wind Speed: 6 knots (7 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 943mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 340° (from the NNW)
- Wind Speed: 8 knots (9 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33652
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
944mb (Surface) 27.0°C (80.6°F) 26.5°C (80°F)
850mb 22.4°C (72.3°F) 22.0°C (72°F)
783mb 20.0°C (68.0°F) 17.9°C (64°F)
754mb 21.6°C (70.9°F) About 15°C (59°F)
716mb 20.4°C (68.7°F) About 11°C (52°F)
696mb Unavailable
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
944mb (Surface) 300° (from the WNW) 9 knots (10 mph)
938mb 345° (from the NNW) 10 knots (12 mph)
929mb 335° (from the NNW) 7 knots (8 mph)
924mb 345° (from the NNW) 12 knots (14 mph)
910mb 315° (from the NW) 6 knots (7 mph)
850mb 335° (from the NNW) 8 knots (9 mph)
809mb 325° (from the NW) 10 knots (12 mph)
772mb 30° (from the NNE) 10 knots (12 mph)
696mb 140° (from the SE) 3 knots (3 mph)

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50 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said:

Personally I would like this hurricane to come straight up the bay as a category 3, veer left at the bay bridge, crawl up my boss's ass, intensify into a category 5, then start shooting out hydrochloric acid.  But that's off topic so I won't discuss that here.

That escalated quickly!

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2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Wow! What a range of area that could get Tropical Storm winds! Just wow! Potential from central NJ to Northern FL!  image.png.ba758bc888e531e71e45806355439cc4.png

Somebody at NWS was probably laughing their ass off while they made that graphic.

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6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Don't count on it.

Low end maybe?  40 mph.  We get that with a cold front.  Doesn’t seem that outrageous.  

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 1:46Z
Agency: United States Air Force 
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308 
Storm Number & Year: 06 in 2018
Storm Name: Florence (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 9
Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 0:59:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.87N 68.23W
B. Center Fix Location: 369 statute miles (594 km) to the SW (214°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,624m (8,609ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 944mb (27.88 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 300° at 9kts (From the WNW at 10mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 100kts (115.1mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SSW (199°) of center fix at 0:56:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 296° at 94kts (From the WNW at 108.2mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSW (201°) of center fix at 0:54:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 105kts (120.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix at 1:05:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 140° at 126kts (From the SE at 145.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix at 1:05:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,038m (9,967ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
 

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 126kts (~ 145.0mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE (43°) from the flight level center at 1:05:00Z

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6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Low end maybe?  40 mph.  We get that with a cold front.  Doesn’t seem that outrageous.  

I think one thing easily overlooked about the cone of uncertainty is that uncertainty range shrinks as tropical systems approach. The same can be said for impact graphics imo.

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14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Low end maybe?  40 mph.  We get that with a cold front.  Doesn’t seem that outrageous.  

Why didn't you tell me you were getting TS wind with cold fronts out in NoVa? I would have moved there.

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Here’s my obligatory annual post that 90% of the subforum would not be happy with a cat 3 up the Bay.

That’s too far east for anyone in the DC metro area westward. C’mon, for most of us to happy, we have to have a high Cat 3 or 4 landfall near Hatteras Village heading NNW at 25 mph, passing to our west, somewhere in Loudoun County. 105 mph gusts at DCA from the south with super record storm surge at every station all up the Bay. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Why didn't you tell me you were getting TS wind with cold fronts out in NoVa? I would have moved there.

I just said that so you would consider relocating.  You seem like a fun fella.  

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5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

cold season cold fronts

Cold rain, colder wind. 

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I just said that so you would consider relocating.  You seem like a fun fella.  

Haha I think that ship has sailed but I may reopen the bidding for my presence depending on the following. What's your snow climo? :snowing:

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Cold rain, colder wind. 

Haha I think that ship has sailed but I may reopen the bidding for my presence depending on the following. What's your snow climo? :snowing:

One notch above disaster.  So one notch above yours perhaps. We have more trees and slanted measuring sticks.

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9 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Here’s my obligatory annual post that 90% of the subforum would not be happy with a cat 3 up the Bay.

That’s too far east for anyone in the DC metro area westward. C’mon, for most of us to happy, we have to have a high Cat 3 or 4 landfall near Hatteras Village heading NNW at 25 mph, passing to our west, somewhere in Loudoun County. 105 mph gusts at DCA from the south with super record storm surge at every station all up the Bay. 

You see, there is a better way... a Cat 5 right up the bay with the eye over 80 degreewater and limited friction from land then sharp left at point lookout and a trip dead center up the Potomac. Might drop to a cat 4 by the time it hits dc but that should be strong enough. With this track you and I are on the bad ass side of the eye too. Storm surge so high that the Legion bridge might go under because half the water in the Chesapeake Bay gets pushed up little falls. 

Don't get me wrong, I like your solution very much but if I had to pick I would go with mine. 

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4 hours ago, mattie g said:

Are you still thinking DC will see 60 mph gusts this weekend?

The high to the north will interact. If it was less potent I think we would be 25 gusting to 40.

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