• Member Statistics

    15,933
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Hc7
    Newest Member
    Hc7
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
WxWatcher007

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

Recommended Posts

Just now, mappy said:

that tweet was posted before today's euro, guys. 

Even before today’s Euro that doesn’t follow guidance. Central to Western NC into SW Va. was showing the most rain. But maybe they will change it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, 5speed6 said:

Of course. And they're less likely to change their thinking based on a single model run, as the past few pages illustrate.

Where is the fun in that??? LOL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mappy said:

1. was made this morning via WPC

2. was posted pre-Euro

3. nothing is set in stone, and I am sure they will make appropriate adjustments

   all of this, and  4)   they have to maintain consistency with the official NHC track     5)  they can't make wild swings with the issuance of products

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, wasnow215 said:

Even before today’s Euro that doesn’t follow guidance. Central to Western NC into SW Va. was showing the most rain. But maybe they will change it.

I'm not sure what else to tell you. 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, high risk said:

   all of this, and  4)   they have to maintain consistency with the official NHC track     5)  they can't make wild swings with the issuance of products

Yeah, I was going to call it "consistency bias" but I was afraid that would sound too critical. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, high risk said:

   all of this, and  4)   they have to maintain consistency with the official NHC track     5)  they can't make wild swings with the issuance of products

I think this is the biggest thing that people need to understand. The NWS and all its offices (WPC, NHC, SPC), know wtf they are doing. Could you even imagine the public outcry if they were constantly changing forecasts based on one run model outcomes? It would be insane. 

Trust them, people. I am sure the rainfall map that the Eastern Region office posted, will be adjusted accordingly to WHAT THEY THINK IS THE MOST POSSIBLE OUTCOME. 

Not based on one Euro run, or one GFS run, or what have you. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mappy said:

I'm not sure what else to tell you. 

I’m good -but if you are a regular “non loving weather stuff” person and you go onto the 2pm update and see those numbers you may try to “escape” to a place that will have more rain. I’m not saying change it every hour but if it was made at 8 AM it could be changed at 2 PM at least some. If you don’t mind me asking, and this is a sincere question, why did you post it in the first place? Just wondering. I thought you truly were trying to say “what’s up with this?” But I will move on now haha.

  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, wasnow215 said:

I’m good -but if you are a regular “non loving weather stuff” person and you go onto the 2pm update and see those numbers you may try to “escape” to a place that will have more rain. I’m not saying change it every hour but if it was made at 8 AM it could be changed at 2 PM at least some. If you don’t mind me asking, and this is a sincere question, why did you post it in the first place? Just wondering. I thought you truly were trying to say “what’s up with this?” But I will move on now haha.

well. this is is a weather forum, where we discuss weather. and being that it shows impacts to our area, mostly further south where they will most certainly get more rain, than say my backyard, i felt it was worth sharing with people who are looking for information. 

i will gladly step back and let you post what you feel is important for everyone else to look at since you seem to be very critical on what information is being posted. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mappy said:

well. this is is a weather forum, where we discuss weather. and being that it shows impacts to our area, mostly further south where they will most certainly get more rain, than say my backyard, i felt it was worth sharing with people who are looking for information. 

i will gladly step back and let you post what you feel is important for everyone else to look at since you seem to be very critical on what information is being posted. 

:lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I’m good -but if you are a regular “non loving weather stuff” person and you go onto the 2pm update and see those numbers you may try to “escape” to a place that will have more rain. I’m not saying change it every hour but if it was made at 8 AM it could be changed at 2 PM at least some. If you don’t mind me asking, and this is a sincere question, why did you post it in the first place? Just wondering. I thought you truly were trying to say “what’s up with this?” But I will move on now haha.

WPC items are updated on a regular schedule. If you have an issue with the update schedule you could submit a comment to them. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mappy said:

well. this is is a weather forum, where we discuss weather. and being that it shows impacts to our area, mostly further south where they will most certainly get more rain, than say my backyard, i felt it was worth sharing with people who are looking for information. 

i will gladly step back and let you post what you feel is important for everyone else to look at since you seem to be very critical on what information is being posted. 

Oh wow here’s the “texts don’t represent my heart intent” problem. In no way Mappy was I trying to be disrespectful. Not one bit. I apologize sincerely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This event is a good dry run for winter. We laugh, we cry.  But, sorry, I’m gonna pass on   downpours and a few puffs of wind - my expectations for MBY. SC folks need to move out of its way.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@wasnow215  I didn't take your posts as being that critical but legitimate questioning of the graphic and timing.  I tend to post less around here and try to learn more from those that have been doing this longer.  That being said, excellent point on how text can be taken the wrong way.  Especially on a board with such a frustrating hobby, I give credit to the moderators for having to weed through a lot of stuff.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Oh wow here’s the “texts don’t represent my heart intent” problem. In no way Mappy was I trying to be disrespectful. Not one bit. I apologize sincerely.

OK. No worries -- lets just move along. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Euro Op and Euro Ensembles all have Florence crashing in or around Wilmington give or take 50 miles and then hitting the high pressure wall and doing a tour of SC and Georgia.  Unless there is a dramatic shift in guidance I think our weekend forecast is going to be cloudy with a slight chance of a breeze.  Damn, I cant wait for the real tracking to begin in a few months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I know its south of us... but per NHC 5pm adv:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, yoda said:

Per NHC 5pm adv:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light
Virginia
* Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort

Florence has also regained peak intensity. 140mph winds at 5pm with a drop in pressure. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018

Microwave satellite data indicate that Florence completed a full
eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) a few hours ago, and recent visible
and infrared imagery suggests that the eye has contracted slightly.
Outflow continues to expand in all quadrants, and the outflow jets
to the northwest and east have become better defined. Satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT are all
T6.0/115 kt, and recent NHC objective intensity estimates are
T6.2/120 kt. Given that the eye has mostly cleared out and has also
warmed to near 19 deg C, the initial intensity has been bumped
upward to 120 kt, which could be conservative. All of the wind radii
had to be expanded/increased based on a blend of the earlier
reconnaissance data and a 1430 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass.

The initial motion estimate is now 300/15 kt. There remains no
significant to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Overall,
the global and regional models have done a good job capturing the
evolving synoptic- scale flow pattern across CONUS, with an
amplifying trough moving onshore the the northwestern U.S. coast,
which is inducing downstream ridging across the northeastern U.S.
and the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Water vapor imagery indicates
that the blocking high pressure northwest of Bermuda is continuing
to build and shift slowly eastward. The 12Z GFS model made a
significant shift to the west, the UKMET made a shift to the east,
and the ECMWF track has remained basically unchanged through 72
hours. As a result the consensus models have made only minor track
shifts to the west. What is noticeable is that all of the global and
regional models are indicating that the steering currents will
collapse by 72 h when Florence is approaching the southeast U.S.
coast. The weak steering currents are expected to continue through
the weekend, which makes the forecast track on days 3-5 quite
uncertain. The latest NHC forecast track is very similar to the
previous two advisory tracks, and lies the middle of the guidance
envelope between the consensus models TVCA to the north and the HCCA
and FSSE models to the south.

During the next 24 hours or so, Florence is expected to remain in a
very favorable environment consisting of low shear near 5 kt, an
expanding upper-level outflow pattern, and above-average SSTs of
29.0-29.5 deg C, which should result in additional strengthening.
By 48 h, the decreasing forward speed along with the large
inner-core wind field should induce some upwelling and gradual
weakening. Although the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models
are indicating an increase in the southwesterly shear to near 20 kt,
this could be due to the SHIPS model capturing Florence's own
strong outflow from the GFS and ECMWF model fields. Despite the
weakening shown at 72 hours, Florence is still expected to remain a
dangerous hurricane through landfall. After Florence moves inland,
the slow forward speed of less than 5 kt should cause a rapid spin
down and weakening of the hurricane's circulation. The new NHC
intensity forecast is a little above the highest guidance based on
the aforementioned very favorable synoptic outflow pattern, and to
maintain continuity with the previous forecast.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant
river flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as
Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and
moves inland.

3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
has been issued for a part of this area.  Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 27.5N  67.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 28.7N  69.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 30.4N  72.1W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 32.1N  74.5W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 33.4N  76.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 34.5N  77.7W  100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 96H  15/1800Z 35.0N  78.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
120H  16/1800Z 35.7N  81.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Florence has also regained peak intensity. 140mph winds at 5pm with a drop in pressure. 

Per the NHC Cone they are definitely following the Euro now.  I still think that rainfall map will be shifted significantly farther South over the next day if the guidance holds.  Also still a possibility this thing gets to Cat 5 status in the next day before weakening again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mappy said:

I think this is the biggest thing that people need to understand. The NWS and all its offices (WPC, NHC, SPC), know wtf they are doing. Could you even imagine the public outcry if they were constantly changing forecasts based on one run model outcomes? It would be insane. 

Trust them, people. I am sure the rainfall map that the Eastern Region office posted, will be adjusted accordingly to WHAT THEY THINK IS THE MOST POSSIBLE OUTCOME. 

Not based on one Euro run, or one GFS run, or what have you. 

Imagine if a few of "us" were given the forecast wheel for the weather bus....

now that'd be one fun ride...

Drammamine w/ whipped cream vodka jello shooters to get the party started. :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

24 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

On the much-debated rainfall map from earlier: they cut it down by a fair amount. Not out of the game in CHO, but impacts much less widespread in VA.

 

newrain.gif

link to wind probs: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/112040.shtml?

If the current 'trends' hold, most if not all of our region should be in a area of subsidence on the extreme northern periphery of Florence. Best shot of some place in our subforum seeing some decent outer band showers/breezy conditions would be lower southern MD, extreme lower eastern shore, down into central/ eastern VA. The rest of us can hope for some leftover crumbs- a few pity showers and maybe a gust of wind early next week if in fact the much weakened center gets picked up and moves close enough as it races NE and out of here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.