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WxWatcher007

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I can truly relate to and understand this post as it's the same up my way...

Never ever take 4+ days model runs over climo.. Once in 100 year flooding is just that. Once in 100 years. Its not that we suck, its that we keep falling for models that show RARE weather events. Same stuff/different day.

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54 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Looks like all the models are keeping the impacts well south of us for now.  Welp, my basement will appreciate that at least. 

Some of the models other the ECMWF have shifted a tad to the north if you compare 00z to 06z. 

To clarify a little more, the thing i noticed was the 06z position was farther north than the 0z guidance predicted if you compare the two on TT.

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Eyeballing the differences between the 0Z and 6Z GFS runs, It appears that the loop is less severe on the 6Z run thereby keeping the track more to the east through the Carolinas into Virginia.  Something to watch with the upcoming 12Z run.

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16 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Eyeballing the differences between the 0Z and 6Z GFS runs, It appears that the loop is less severe on the 6Z run thereby keeping the track more to the east through the Carolinas into Virginia.  Something to watch with the upcoming 12Z run.

Yes I don't think the final chapter has been written for this storm and surprises are likely especially as she approaches the coast.  Best not to crown a "king" model until the chips are counted.  Kenny Rogers taught us not to "count our money until the dealing is done"...I think that applies here. 

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6Z Parallel GFS is basically a carbon copy of the EURO.  Landfall near ILM and drift west into Northern SC.

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recon in florence now - last eyewall pass had 951mb pressure. the storm has been undergoing what many mets believe to be an eyewall replacement cycle. once that is finished, and the eye clears out, expect it to strengthen more

recon_AF308-0706A-FLORENCE_timeseries.pn

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A bit OT, but I see the GFS brings Helene into northern Portugal as a TS in about a week.  When's the last time that region got hit by a tropical system?

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Solution does seem to be shifting more towards a NC event.  That being said, this aspect of the storm is something that the models have been fighting amongst themselves with.  It would take not so big changes for this to become a major, if not at least locally castrophic, event.

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11 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

A bit OT, but I see the GFS brings Helene into northern Portugal as a TS in about a week.  When's the last time that region got hit by a tropical system?

Vince 2005?

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13 minutes ago, mappy said:

worth the read. 

 

I read the entire blog entry, and it took a full cup of coffee. Certainly he covers all the options , willl it ramp up just prior to landfall, the quick deepening despite the obvious  associated IR cloud imagery, a possible shift in track. Very cool stuff and all relevant. Weather is fascinating .    

 

 

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12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Isn't the "stall" being talked about what the gfs has been saying all along?  Obviously with some variations?

yes, the models have all had some sort of stall associated with them. the GFS however is just weird. Landfall further north, then sends it south down the coast, vs inland like the euro. 

as many have said, the ridge and how strong it is, really will decide what florence does once it makes landfall. 

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Running on fumes today so no long overview post, but Florence looks like it could be intensifying with deep convection trying to fire around an eye that has more than doubled in size from yesterday. It could be a dramatic afternoon and evening once the inner eyewall is fully eroded. 

As for track, there’s unfortunately still a lot of spread. Not necessarily for landfall point but rather the evolution of Florence afterward. Small changes will make the difference between feet of rain in NC, a significant rain event focused in this region, or SC/mountains disaster. There are no good options. Hopefully there’s more of a consensus today, but I fear the spread will remain through tomorrow. 

I currently think the Euro and its ensembles are playing the inland effects too far west, the GFS is too far east, and as a result I favor a straight landfall between Myrtle Beach and Surf City with a NNW to NW track afterward and stall somewhere in NW NC or western VA by the weekend. Just to look more like a fool predicting this far out I currently think we see a landfall at 145mph.

I’ll make a final (worthless) call tomorrow.

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Running on fumes today so no long overview post, but Florence looks like it could be intensifying with deep convection trying to fire around an eye that has more than doubled in size from yesterday. It could be a dramatic afternoon and evening once the inner eyewall is fully eroded. 

As for track, there’s unfortunately still a lot of spread. Not necessarily for landfall point but rather the evolution of Florence afterward. Small changes will make the difference between feet of rain in NC, a significant rain event focused in this region, or SC/mountains disaster. There are no good options. Hopefully there’s more of a consensus today, but I fear the spread will remain through tomorrow. 

I currently think the Euro and its ensembles are playing the inland effects too far west, the GFS is too far east, and as a result I favor a straight landfall between Myrtle Beach and Surf City with a NNW to NW track afterward and stall somewhere in NW NC or western VA by the weekend. Just to look more like a fool predicting this far out I currently think we see a landfall at 145mph.

I’ll make a final (worthless) call tomorrow.

for running on fumes, i think you have done just fine ;) 

i too think it will head more NNW/NW after landfall than this meandering south and west business both euro and gfs are advertising. 

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Yeah, who says being a weather forecaster is fun Lol  :P

That's from 12z yesterday, the information is 24 hours old.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

That's from 12z yesterday, the information is 24 hours old.

trying to fix, stupid cache

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Just now, LP08 said:

trying to fix, stupid cache

Decent cluster take Flo up along I-81 by HR168 as far north as CHO.

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Decent cluster take Flo up along I-81 by HR168 as far north as CHO.

The landfalls are nuts, basically the entire coast of NC but still perhaps focusing south of the outerbanks.  Wxwatcher's prediction looks good.

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