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WxWatcher007

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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1 hour ago, biodhokie said:

My only guess is that they were looking at the Euro plots and based it off of that.

image.png

 

From experience, the road system of coastal South Carolina sucks, badly. If you're near Charleston you get I-26 which gives you 4 lanes if you're doing all lanes away from the coast, otherwise you're left to evacuate on US road systems which vary from 2-laners to 4-laners through towns. On top of that, most of the area is either densely populated (because coast) or poor so if you're organizing people to bus out, that takes time. Just food for thought as to probably why a large swath of SC is being told to evac.

edit: and I agree that there's politics at play as well.

Same story in Wilmington NC, there are two highways in and out of the city. I 40 and I 74, both 2 lane highways very prone to traffic jams, flooding, and are more densely populated then ever.

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I see the I95 Central MD, DC and VA crew now in the “cone of uncertainty”. One or two more shifts north and we are probably building arks tomorrow. 

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4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

We are only in the cone because of the uncertainty at range imo.  We will soon be out of it.

I keep thinking this has an opportunity to trend north. Maybe that’s just my winter weenie mode coming out. :lol: 

 

 

 

 

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Just went for a run on the C&O.  This is what 3-6" of rain did to the Potomac up this way.  The boat ramp and parking lot is about 15' under water.  The river is about 3' from the path. 

 Not a news flash...but we are really not going to need huge amounts of rain to cause major river flooding.  What would another 3-6" do just five days later?? and what if things trend north, though not in the "epic" rains category, but in the 6"+ range?  

 

20180910_153850.thumb.jpg.555dc99b4ee3bff47ece31ac6a820d13.jpg

 

 

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Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

One interesting note is the 18z gfs initializes Florence much weaker ~964mb and recon already showed 940s earlier.  That strength isn't attained until ~hr54 on the op gfs.

Don't worry; it'll make up for it with like an 837mb low before landfall. 

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the 18z definitely looks to be taking a step toward the euro.. looks like it shifted 50 miles to the south.. lets see if it does its stall thing

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6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

aaaand like that http://www.vaemergency.gov/hurricane-evacuation-zone-lookup/ is down. Unimpressive.

Can use this https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5797524b9a58440c8dbc06816e060492 direct link to perform the lookup. Posting it just in case board members need it and cant get to the vaemergency site.

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5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

942mb 12z Thurs.  Not very likely

Why is that not likely?  It is at 939 right now.. the water only gets warmer over the gulf stream.. not much shear out there..

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10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

 


aaaand like that http://www.vaemergency.gov/hurricane-evacuation-zone-lookup/ is down. Unimpressive.

 

 

At the press conference they admitted it's down and (rewinds DVR) offered up the following to check your zone:

 

http://bitly/knowyourzoneva

 

I'll add it's a shortened link to what @biodhokie posted just above.

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Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Exactly.

Oh... so you are saying it is underdone.. well yeah.. at the same time... it will probably go through cycles.. and there has never been a cat 5 to landfall in that part of the world.. so I think 942 is fair.. 

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2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

The 18z gfs still has a mind of its own as it stalls SE of Hatteras.

I don't get it, I'm guessing it's the byproduct of an uncoupled OP GFS? I wonder what the para gives us.

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