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WxWatcher007

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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Just now, stormtracker said:

I’d evacuate myr  on north.  My mom is 45 miles inland and the media has her thinking she is going to be swept out to sea. 

i think that's definitely something that needs to happen. and if southern stretches have to go hopefully those people have the sense to go to Atlanta instead of GSP, Charlotte, etc

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's usually (if not always) a losing proposition. EM's have to evacuate far more people than will be affected so no matter what happens, a group (sometimes very large group) will be pissed off and complain. But dealing with mad citizens is far better than dead ones and safe than sorry is best practice. I would never want that job. No way no how. 

The other half of the equation, besides mad citizens, is if you evacuate prematurely and it winds up being unnecessary, then the next time there is a big storm people might be inclined to ignore the orders and wind up getting killed.  There will be people who decide to ride this one out, even with the evacuation order.

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5 minutes ago, biodhokie said:

From experience, the road system of coastal South Carolina sucks, badly. If you're near Charleston you get I-26 which gives you 4 lanes if you're doing all lanes away from the coast, otherwise you're left to evacuate on US road systems which vary from 2-laners to 4-laners through towns. On top of that, most of the area is either densely populated (because coast) or poor so if you're organizing people to bus out, that takes time. Just food for thought as to probably why a large swath of SC is being told to evac.

edit: and I agree that there's politics at play as well.

Consider too the limitations imposed by the ICW. There a *ton* of bottlenecks when it comes to moving people to/from the coast quickly. It's arguably just as bad as getting people off the OBX, only there are more of them. 

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’d evacuate myr  on north.  My mom is 45 miles inland and the media has her thinking she is going to be swept out to sea. 

Damn, that's just wrong man...lol. Make sure that doesn't happen...

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Not sure if posted but here's the latest dropsonde. Pressure likely around or just below 940mb now given the wind. 

 

Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 19:27Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) 
Storm Number: 06
Storm Name: Florence (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: Third flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this system
Observation Number: 32 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

Part A...
 

Date: Near the closest hour of 19Z on the 10th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 25.3N 60.8W
Location: 541 statute miles (870 km) to the SSE (154°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (U.K.).
Marsden Square: 079 ( About )
 
Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.
941mb (27.79 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 25.8°C (78°F) 75° (from the ENE) 13 knots (15 mph)
925mb 154m (505 ft) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 25.2°C (77°F) 95° (from the E) 14 knots (16 mph)
850mb 898m (2,946 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 22.1°C (72°F) 95° (from the E) 12 knots (14 mph)
700mb 1,580m (5,184 ft) Height extrapolated since sonde was released within 25mbs below this level.

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 19:18Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...
 
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center.

Highest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 25.27N 60.80W
- Time: 19:18:41Z

Lowest altitude where wind was reported:
- Location: 25.27N 60.81W
- Time: 19:22:17Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 100° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 13 knots (15 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 95° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 10 knots (12 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 719mb to 941mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 85° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 14 knots (16 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 33668
 

Part B: Data for Significant Levels...
 

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
941mb (Surface) 26.4°C (79.5°F) 25.8°C (78°F)
850mb 22.2°C (72.0°F) 22.1°C (72°F)
719mb 18.6°C (65.5°F) About 13°C (55°F)
 
Significant Wind Levels
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
941mb (Surface) 75° (from the ENE) 13 knots (15 mph)
931mb 90° (from the E) 16 knots (18 mph)
899mb 110° (from the ESE) 12 knots (14 mph)
850mb 95° (from the E) 12 knots (14 mph)
818mb 95° (from the E) 10 knots (12 mph)
804mb 110° (from the ESE) 10 knots (12 mph)
772mb 80° (from the E) 10 knots (12 mph)
719mb 115° (from the ESE) 7 knots (8 mph)

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I have family in Rocky Point, NC which is about 40 or some miles NNE or Wilmington. I sent a message earlier today asking what they are planning on doing. I have not heard back. I am thinking being NNE of Wilmington is not a good location to be right now. 

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1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Panic has started on the community Facebook. Stores here are running out of water (seriously, I was just at Walmart and it was crazy). People in this region are nuts! 

My wife just got back from Sams club, said the same thing.

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2 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Panic has started on the community Facebook. Stores here are running out of water (seriously, I was just at Walmart and it was crazy). People in this region are nuts! 

Yeah, a friend just posted a shot of a Kroger in the RVA area. 

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm bummed that OCMD isn't being evacuated. Means a cat 5 up the bay probably isn't happening. 

I'm not LOL. Would like to keep my beach house for another few years at least.

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm bummed that OCMD isn't being evacuated. Means a cat 5 up the bay probably isn't happening. 

Bob.  You're sick.  Get Help. :D

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4 minutes ago, EB89 said:

I have family in Rocky Point, NC which is about 40 or some miles NNE or Wilmington. I sent a message earlier today asking what they are planning on doing. I have not heard back. I am thinking being NNE of Wilmington is not a good location to be right now. 

NC Gov said on TWC that he was considering inland evacuations of flood prone areas as well. 

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

I'm not LOL. Would like to keep my beach house for another few years at least.

I didn't know you had one there. You should have chased that blizzard in January to get some good year round use of it :P

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7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I'm a bit surprised at the spread that remains.  We really want a NC landfall for impacts up here.

 

My first thought as well. That's a very wide cone for d3-4 spread. Should narrow significantly in 24 hours. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

My first thought as well. That's a very wide cone for d3-4 spread. Should narrow significantly in 24 hours. 

5:00 p.m. NHC guidance will probably still stay farther north than the mean of those runs. There may be quite a spread, but it's pretty clear which ones are getting more weight. 

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Man...Euro sure is doubling down on the more southerly track, while simultaneously opening up on the cone a bit.  I'll be super curious to see how the ridge sets up in reality.

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Hogan declared a state of emergency for MD. Before ppl get angry, this just puts national guard on notice to help if need be. Southern part of the state could see major flooding, so a good call I think.


.

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hogan declared a state of emergency for MD. Before ppl get angry, this just puts national guard on notice to help if need be. Southern part of the state could see major flooding, so a good call I think.


.

And honestly with the rain this week, anything from Florence could ramp up the chances of flooding around the state. 

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I’m thinking people that don’t track snowstorms as a hobby are the most prone to panic over a potential hurricane. Their are still a number of different tracks to consider for this storm. If you are not on the coast it’s no time to panic.  We will have a pretty good idea where inland flooding is most likely by Wednesday night. I agree with the evacs of the coast because those preparations take a long time. I’ve been waiting for my 5 day snowstorm enough times to know that the models can and will change. By d2 the details will be mostly ironed out and then the people can start panicking. 

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