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WxWatcher007

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

What's left of Flo's eye looks to be coming ashore now around Top Sail Beach/Surf City area. Have a decent blow up of convection now rotating through that region on the north and east portion of the eye-wall. 

Looks much better then it did last evening. It definitely tightened up over the last few hours. I'm chasing those 70 degree temps and low DP I see on my point and click next week. 

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11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

What's left of Flo's eye looks to be coming ashore now around Top Sail Beach/Surf City area. Have a decent blow up of convection now rotating through that region on the north and east portion of the eye-wall. 

Gusting over TS pretty frequently now even without much precip. I didn’t realize it at the time but my anemometer broke in the first band. Bummer, but I’ll press on. At least I got my landfall location right in my prediction a few days ago lol.

Just now, dailylurker said:

Looks much better then it did last evening. It definitely tightened up over the last few hours. I'm chasing those 70 degree temps and low DP I see on my point and click next week. 

It really has. Winds aloft are quite strong away from the center so as showers roll through we get good mixing. Should really pick up here in the next few hours. 

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50 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Looks much better then it did last evening. It definitely tightened up over the last few hours. I'm chasing those 70 degree temps and low DP I see on my point and click next week. 

Thought it looked better as well this morning. Not the beast we were seeing on some of the model runs though. Which is a good thing? No? Don't want to start another morality crusade by some. :lol:

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51 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Thought it looked better as well this morning. Not the beast we were seeing on some of the model runs though. Which is a good thing? No? Don't want to start another morality crusade by some. :lol:

People choose to live in Wilmington, NC. It’s their own damn fault if their houses get ripped from the ground and the surge creates salt ponds from the holes left where there once stood beautiful homes.

Meh.

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so looks like both the pier cam, and the shoals cam are both down. shame, would be nice to see how they fared this morning with the sun up. 

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

so looks like both the pier cam, and the shoals cam are both down. shame, would be nice to see how they fared this morning with the sun up. 

In the occasionally hilarious comment stream on that live feed, a few folks mentioned that those solar cells ringing the FPS pier should kick in as backup power once they've charged up a bit later this morning...

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3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Pretty impressive that the Wilmington radar is still up.

they reported a gust of 105mph around 730

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Piercam went out at about 630pm last night (the one I posted). I would be shocked if the pier survived. Low tide was at 445pm and waves were almost reaching the deck. Would have been interested to see high tide, but the good stuff always seems to happen under the cover of darkness or when the cam is gone.

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Just now, mappy said:

i hope he left?

He did.  We finally convinced him Wednesday.  He is only 11' ASL so I don't have a good feeling about his house once the winds switch and with up to 30" of rain.

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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Gusting over TS pretty frequently now even without much precip. I didn’t realize it at the time but my anemometer broke in the first band. Bummer, but I’ll press on. At least I got my landfall location right in my prediction a few days ago lol.

It really has. Winds aloft are quite strong away from the center so as showers roll through we get good mixing. Should really pick up here in the next few hours. 

hope youre staying safe!

Just now, LP08 said:

He did.  We finally convinced him Wednesday.  He is only 11' ASL so I don't have a good feeling about his house once the winds switch and with up to 30" of rain.

that's good. homes can rebuilt, lives cannot. 

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19 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

This is something that DT would not like to see!

 

That's an interesting chart.  I wonder exactly how it is put together.  I find it hard to believe that the Euro was that much of an outlier when the GFS was doing it's loop-de-loop off of the Outer Banks for so many runs while the Euro was sending Flo into NC/SC.  Perhaps because the timing was off? 

Speaking of the Euro - it is insistent on bringing a line of gusty storms through here overnight Mon into Tues.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018091400_102_493_241.thumb.png.98c1020548defc9e49105285bf7f5940.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2018091400_102_493_379.thumb.png.8d7e97e58aaf50ddd2d4e44a7504d5a3.png

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39 minutes ago, LP08 said:

He did.  We finally convinced him Wednesday.  He is only 11' ASL so I don't have a good feeling about his house once the winds switch and with up to 30" of rain.

Given the wind forecast a few days ago, it was smart to leave. Imagine if this hit as a category four..

36 minutes ago, mappy said:

please be careful @WxWatcher007

 

Thanks! I’m a few miles north of the river so I think I’ll be ok, but the rain forecast is now a whopping 25”. Expecting some flooding but I won’t be driving around so that reduces the risk a lot. Where can I see real time river info?

19 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

This is something that DT would not like to see!

 

Yikes. lol 

Gusting to 51 now. Expecting more as we get into consistently heavier banding.

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Given the wind forecast a few days ago, it was smart to leave. Imagine if this hit as a category four..

Thanks! I’m a few miles north of the river so I think I’ll be ok, but the rain forecast is now a whopping 25”. Expecting some flooding but I won’t be driving around so that reduces the risk a lot. Where can I see real time river info?

Yikes. lol 

Gusting to 51 now. Expecting more as we get into consistently heavier banding.

here you go:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ILM

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Cranky being a crank with that chart. It covers the entire period from 8/31. Most of that error was built up during the initial RI period when the storm went much further north than forecast. After that, it was clearly better.

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6 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Cranky being a crank with that chart. It covers the entire period from 8/31. Most of that error was built up during the initial RI period when the storm went much further north than forecast. After that, it was clearly better.

That's true

Interesting as well, you can play the data. 

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12 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Cranky being a crank with that chart. It covers the entire period from 8/31. Most of that error was built up during the initial RI period when the storm went much further north than forecast. After that, it was clearly better.

Good point, I would have to see where we can pull the data but I believe the FV3-GFS was also very good and also showed a very similar landfall location to the ECMWF which has now verified. Good signs that the new GFS may be a significant upgrade in forecast accuracy.

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38 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Cranky being a crank with that chart. It covers the entire period from 8/31. Most of that error was built up during the initial RI period when the storm went much further north than forecast. After that, it was clearly better.

Turns out, that chart was for the intensity error.  For that, yeah, it seems like the Euro was off.  For track, the GFS (AVN in these graphics) and HWRF generally did a nice job.  And, least surprising, don't use the canadian or nogaps.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/al062018/

mae.thumb.png.7120d17a3ebd79360dd1f491c7238994.png

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AKQ issues TOR for locations just south of VA Beach:

Quote

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1017 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern Currituck County in northeastern North Carolina...
  The southeastern City of Chesapeake in southeastern Virginia...
  The south central City of Virginia Beach in southeastern
  Virginia...

* Until 1045 AM EDT.
    
* At 1017 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Corolla, or 11 miles east of Currituck,
  moving west at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Knotts Island around 1030 AM EDT.
  Currituck around 1040 AM EDT.
  Moyock around 1045 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Sligo,
Snowden, Munden and Maple.

 

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