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WxWatcher007

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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That's a scary place to go to bed at night. On normal nights I'd be worried about some strange anomaly, Rogue Wave or local tsunami. No way would I ever spend the night at that place.

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40 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

People this dumb deserve to have their house washed away, just saying.

Dm7tCHSUYAAvQH5.jpg:large

That is begging to get destroyed. How high would peak wave action be? Like to the wood balcony on the third , yellow bldg?

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Well, I more meant just how close the house is to the ocean. Even if we assume the water is already up a bit, it's not a good sign when your house is nearly flooding before the storm even arrives. That house is not going to survive.

That's North Topsail Beach.  Those houses were originally the second row back from the ocean.  The original ocean front houses were razed following extensive erosion.  They've spent several million dollars to try to save these dozen or so homes largely because the mayor of the town owns one of them.  It's an exercise in futility.  I suspect this storm will make that clear...

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Looks like 00z GFS and GGEM track Florence far enough west of us when moving north early next week that we dont get much besides some showers 

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Even with the weakening still looks like a beast on visible.  

Yeah, and the tops are coming back up in the SE quad. Cat3 is a stretch at this point, but she's far from dead. 

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Just now, 5speed6 said:

Yeah, and the tops are coming back up in the SE quad. Cat3 is a stretch at this point, but she's far from dead. 

Yeah, and has been pointed out by many, aside from the small area around the exact landfall point a weak cat 3/cat 2 vs a strong cat 1 isn't that big of a difference impact wise.  We all knew starting a couple of days ago this probably wasn't going do high end wind damage like say Andrew in Florida or Irma in the Carribean. 

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21 minutes ago, H2O said:

0z Euro has a track taking the leftovers by fairly close next week

Verbatim, the Euro is actually a really good whack on Tuesday morning.  A line of heavy showers bringing down 60mph gusts.  Shear and a bit of CAPE for the little spinny things. 

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Not to downplay this at all but a note to self, never trust intensity forecasts again, should have learned that last year with Irma.

The flooding from this will be the big story, I don't think people understand the full extent of that yet.

 

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10 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I thought so too at first glance, but you can see the sand bags extending farther along the coast and not just that one residence.

I'm guessing those sand bags are semi-permanent and not there because of Florence. I just looked at the Google Maps satellite view, and in image (whenever it was taken) those sandbags are there already...

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3 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

Not to downplay this at all but a note to self, never trust intensity forecasts again, should have learned that last year with Irma.

The flooding from this will be the big story, I don't think people understand the full extent of that yet.

 

FFS -- this is crap and just stop. NHC was always transparent in that it could weaken approaching landfall. models never should be taken verbatim, especially in this unique setup. if you believed it was going to hold cat 4 until the coast, then that's your damn fault. 

this storm is dangerous regardless of what its category is, and as a weather enthusiast, who has been around for a while, i'm surprised you are even making a note of this to yourself. 

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2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I'm guessing those sand bags are semi-permanent and not there because of Florence. I just looked at the Google Maps satellite view, and in image (whenever it was taken) those sandbags are there already...

Not surprising considering they built those houses literally on the beach. What an eff up. Mother nature will claim those soon enough.

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

FFS -- this is crap and just stop. NHC was always transparent in that it could weaken approaching landfall. models never should be taken verbatim, especially in this unique setup. if you believed it was going to hold cat 4 until the coast, then that's your damn fault. 

this storm is dangerous regardless of what its category is, and as a weather enthusiast, who has been around for a while, i'm surprised you are even making a note of this to yourself. 

 The forecast the NHC actually out at one point was a CAT 4 at landfall. As of yesterday a CAT 3. The GFS and EURO both advertised as much for quite sometime.

So yes, its wrong.

Again, I am not downplaying this storm at all. I am just stating fact on intensities being wrong.

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25 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Verbatim, the Euro is actually a really good whack on Tuesday morning.  A line of heavy showers bringing down 60mph gusts.  Shear and a bit of CAPE for the little spinny things. 

No doubt . Wpc's notes the potential ..

"Weather Highlights/Hazards... Florence will spread a large area of significant rainfall northeastward next week despite its acceleration ahead of an approaching cold front. Flooding may be a concern along the I-81 to I-95 corridors but will be a function of forward speed. Back to the west, as troughing finally moves out of the northwest, a cold front will usher in cooler fall air to the High Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Tue-Wed and then to the east coast next Thursday as ex-Florence should race well into Atlantic Canada then."

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