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WxWatcher007

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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I'm no expert and this is probably wishcasting at this point but...if Flo is indeed moving slightly to the right of guidance, then maybe there is a chance that it will spend more time over water while doing it's loop around the Great Lakes ridge and not lose as much of its strength, and then come north to our west at a longitude closer to us giving us something more interesting. This is, of course, is assuming it does the loop the way current guidance depicts. 

I'll pipe down if I'm being too extreme. 

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8 minutes ago, George BM said:

I'm no expert and this is probably wishcasting at this point but...if Flo is indeed moving slightly to the right of guidance, then maybe there is a chance that it will spend more time over water while doing it's loop around the Great Lakes ridge and not lose as much of its strength, and then come north to our west at a longitude closer to us giving us something more interesting. This is, of course, is assuming it does the loop the way current guidance depicts. 

I'll pipe down if I'm being too extreme. 

I don't think it is too extreme.

It might not make much difference for us in the long run, but I won't buy this entire stall and crawl down the coast at exactly those points until it happens. I don't think the models even at close range are nailing it and I think we are already seeing a deviation from what they are thinking.

Does that mean its coming up the Ches bay? Nope. Coming to Virginia Beach even? Nope. But I think the evolution of it needs to be watched for changes.

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I81 corridor starting to become a target area for post landfall/exit rains....admittedly, I dont have much confidence with anything past 30hrs with this storm.

Dm7GGAyX0AAoqiM.jpg.2e786486c3bad90e31bb15f873034df2.jpg

 

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1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

I81 corridor starting to become a target area for post landfall/exit rains....admittedly, I dont have much confidence with anything past 30hrs with this storm.

Dm7GGAyX0AAoqiM.jpg.2e786486c3bad90e31bb15f873034df2.jpg

 

I think in the end remnants will make up this way especially along i81 as you pointed out . I'm not sure I buy the far west tracks that take Flo over the apps  . I'd put money( maby just a small amount lol) on the remnant low tracking up the eastern spine .

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25 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Atleast we have the icon on our side....lol

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_38.png

After we move on from here we can start hunting first flakes...I’m sure that will turn out better...I swear every year I come closer to being Ji

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13 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

After we move on from here we can start hunting first flakes...I’m sure that will turn out better...I swear every year I come closer to being Ji

First flakes?  Come on, it's the 2nd week of September... not November 

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Just now, yoda said:

First flakes?  Come on, it's the 2nd week of September... not November 

I know I just want to track something fun..it brings me joy and pain....earliest flakes ever at DCA I think we’re iOct 10th...less than a month 

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9 minutes ago, yoda said:

First flakes?  Come on, it's the 2nd week of September... not November 

The fam up in Canada had rain mixed with snow today.

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1 minute ago, fourseasons said:

The fam up in Canada had rain mixed with snow today.

That's Canada lol.  Which province?  Must be nice up there already temp wise

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I think in the end remnants will make up this way especially along i81 as you pointed out . I'm not sure I buy the far west tracks that take Flo over the apps  . I'd put money( maby just a small amount lol) on the remnant low tracking up the eastern spine .


I thought the same thing....west side of the apps seems too far west...then again, I thought a movement SW after the stall was bunk as well. The longer Flo takes to jog west, after it’s SW slide, the better chance at a pass just to our west or even overhead. Still some wildcards left with this I think.


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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

That's Canada lol.  Which province?  Must be nice up there already temp wise

Edmonton, Alberta area.  Mama Fourseasons texted at the time earlier today that the temp was 0 C and the wind chill at -5 C.

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It is moist out there! If the atmosphere sneezes these days, we get floods in some spots! Rained like crazy in Montgomery County earlier and there is no Flo here!
 


Agreed...I received .18” at 330am in about 15 minutes....got up at 5 to the creek bank full again and roaring.


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