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WxWatcher007

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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6 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Given how many tornadoes Ivan dropped around this area, that experience was remarkably underwhelming for me. I'd much rather get in on some generalized gusty shower action than watch TV footage of a wedge tornado near Opal, VA. :)

 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Were there really wedges?

I believe this is the date you are referring to.  Looks like a snoozefest.  

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20040917

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

 

I believe this is the date you are referring to.  Looks like a snoozefest.  

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20040917

everything is a god damn snoozefest to you

@WxWatcher007 there were quite a few tornadoes in VA on 9/17 2004

1 EF3, many EF2s and rest EF1/0

Dulles Airport had damage

EF3 in the Remington Area, flipping a car

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5 minutes ago, mappy said:

everything is a god damn snoozefest to you

@WxWatcher007 there were quite a few tornadoes in VA on 9/17 2004

1 EF3, many EF2s and rest EF1/0

Dulles Airport had damage

EF3 in the Remington Area, flipping a car

An EF4 could plow by him and he'd complain with zzzzzzzzzz

Thanks for that post... I'd forgotten about the EF3 and didn't realize Dulles Airport suffered damage

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Back end of the 12z GFS is pretty busy - N FL and Baja both take a strong TS, maybe Cat 1.  And more to follow if you buy the final frame.

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12 minutes ago, yoda said:

An EF4 could plow by him and he'd complain with zzzzzzzzzz

Thanks for that post... I'd forgotten about the EF3 and didn't realize Dulles Airport suffered damage

KIAD 172212Z 19013G37KT 1 1/2SM +FC -TSRA BR BKN009 BKN015CB OVC031 24/23 A2967 RMK TORNADO B11 N MOV N AO2 PK WND 20037/2208 OCNL LTGCG OHD TS OHD MOV N P0047
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9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Does anyone have the current track of Flo compared to the last cone of probability? Seems to me that she is maybe running farther north outside of the cone at this point.

This is from another member in the southeast forum

 

She is about to run right out of the north side of the NHC cone lol.....it doesnt imply the NHC track is wrong down the road.....just that its wrong right now.....I cant figure out how to link a loop of her with the NHC track overlay from CIMSS.....so do it yourself :)

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=06L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

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7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Does anyone have the current track of Flo compared to the last cone of probability? Seems to me that she is maybe running farther north outside of the cone at this point.

There is no question this is happening.  Does it mean anything? Il leave that to the pros.  The weather channel app has a satellite view of the storm with the NHC cone.  You can clearly see the eye of Florence north of the cone.

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6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Does anyone have the current track of Flo compared to the last cone of probability? Seems to me that she is maybe running farther north outside of the cone at this point.

Definitely is.

But not sure it means much. Something to watch though.

 

 

 

 

hurricane.JPG

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7 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

This is from another member in the southeast fourm

 

She is about to run right out of the north side of the NHC cone lol.....it doesnt imply the NHC track is wrong down the road.....just that its wrong right now.....I cant figure out how to link a loop of her with the NHC track overlay from CIMSS.....so do it yourself :)

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=06L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

 

4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

There is no question this is happening.  Does it mean anything? Il leave that to the pros.  The weather channel app has a satellite view of the storm with the NHC cone.  You can clearly see the eye of Florence north of the cone.

 

1 minute ago, Mdecoy said:

Definitely is.

But not sure it means much. Something to watch though.

Thank you all. May be nothing more then a wobble and it will readjust down the road a touch. But if not I think this could possibly be putting the outer-banks in the cross-hairs once again.

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

 

Thank you all. May be nothing more then a wobble and it will readjust down the road a touch. But if not I think this could possibly be putting the outer-banks in the cross-hairs once again.

cranky mentioned this on twitter, and i've seen it mentioned a few times by some red taggers. but florence as a lean to it, on the NNW side. It seems to be following that lean, almost a pull in the upper left quadrant area. been doing it all day. 

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Just now, Mdecoy said:

Is the death ridge building as quickly as they thought? Still cloudy and showery over the area. Does that mean anything? Maybe its not nowcasting time yet.

guess the break in the clouds haven't made it up to you yet... sun has been in/out here for a couple hours now. 

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5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

 

Thank you all. May be nothing more then a wobble and it will readjust down the road a touch. But if not I think this could possibly be putting the outer-banks in the cross-hairs once again.

The storm could also be gaining strength again.  The stronger hurricanes tend to have an easier time gaining latitude all else being equal.

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

guess the break in the clouds haven't made it up to you yet... sun has been in/out here for a couple hours now. 

I am actually in Springfield VA south of DC now, we have had some breaks in the last few hours. But seems to be clouding back up with more to the west.

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

cranky mentioned this on twitter, and i've seen it mentioned a few times by some red taggers. but florence as a lean to it, on the NNW side. It seems to be following that lean, almost a pull in the upper left quadrant area. been doing it all day. 

Funny you mentioned that. I was kind of noticing that myself.

1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

The storm could also be gaining strength again.  The stronger hurricanes tend to have an easier time gaining latitude all else being equal.

Looking at the latest loops and Flo looks a little rough. The eye is definitely having a rough time at this point. Might be the prelude to a ERC? But it doesn't look to be the case from my amateur eyes.

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I thought this was interesting coming out of Morehead City.  I thought they would have higher guest there than 85 MPH

 

 WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force
      wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 55-70 mph with gusts to 85 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Thursday morning
          until Saturday evening

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3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I thought this was interesting coming out of Morehead City.  I thought they would have higher guest there than 85 MPH

 

 WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force
      wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 55-70 mph with gusts to 85 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Thursday morning
          until Saturday evening

It looks like the official forecast has the eyewall missing them by at least 50 miles. That could be a factor. Still seems rather low.

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5 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I thought this was interesting coming out of Morehead City.  I thought they would have higher guest there than 85 MPH

 

 WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force
      wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 55-70 mph with gusts to 85 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Thursday morning
          until Saturday evening

The winds are going to cause some damage but its not going the be the story of this storm.  If it takes that SW jog along the Carolina coast the Storm Surge is going to be catastrophic.  I think the there will be some wind damage right along the coasts but the storm surge and flooding from heavy rain will be the story.  

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5pm Advisory:

 

5:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12
Location: 30.9°N 72.5°W
Moving: NW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 949 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

 

I'm assuming the drop in winds is because the storm is regenerating?

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