Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

WxWatcher007

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

So why isn’t everyone trying to poke holes in the Euro’s stall-and-crawl-and-maintain-strength solution like they were with the GFS just a day or so ago? To me, that the GFS sniffed that out at very long leads is more impressive than strong the relative location of the currently expected landfall correct.

:clap:

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

:clap:

im' guessing you missed the posts where MN transplant explained that the GFS was right for the wrong reasons. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, mappy said:

im' guessing you missed the posts where MN transplant explained that the GFS was right for the wrong reasons. 

No, I saw them.

But I missed the ones that said the euro was wrong .......... for whatever reason.

I'm of the opinion that 5 days out they have to be blended (as you said) and that any of them individually has to be viewed with skepticism.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

No, I saw them.

But I missed the ones that said the euro was wrong .......... for whatever reason.

I'm of the opinion that 5 days out they have to be blended (as you said) and that any of them individually has to be viewed with skepticism.

lol not sure anyone said the euro was wrong.. or right ;) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, mattie g said:

So why isn’t everyone trying to poke holes in the Euro’s stall-and-crawl-and-maintain-strength solution like they were with the GFS just a day or so ago? To me, that the GFS sniffed that out at very long leads is more impressive than strong the relative location of the currently expected landfall correct.

lol you're such a smart ass. You know exactly why people were poking holes in the GFS solution a few days ago. 

Now before I lob my criticism and risk a dtk/met smackdown, it's important to note two things. First, despite what some weenies might think, all of the guidance has gotten significantly better over the last two decades when it comes to both tropical track forecasting and intensity prediction. It's a real scientific marvel. We are all a lot safer because of the ability of the models to give us significantly more lead time to prepare for these events. Second, the GFS has actually done very well in the forecast track of Florence while the Euro has struggled, particularly in the longer range. Probably also important to note just how much error there has been with everything even inside 72 hours.  

y2npSwl.png

All that said, that GFS has had some really glaring moments when it comes to tropical track prediction in the last decade. In high stakes situations, it's reputation, deserved or not, has been to be off on an island. Sandy, Joaquin, and even Lane this year all come to mind and I have no doubt that there are more where it was just off or late to the consensus track. 

There's a reason the pros don't jump with every model run, and I think we see a bit of an extreme here because there are inexperienced people (myself included) who don't grapple with the technical details of a model that make the difference in a given run. We often look for immediate trends and simplistic resolution of difficult forecasts. That's why it's important often times to blend guidance and look to understand the overall environment first before analyzing whether a model is on the right track. 

We're not critical enough with the Euro. That much is true. Particularly in winter. It's why I constantly joke about weenies kneeling at the altar of the Infallible Euro. But I don't think we can discount the reputation the GFS has had when it comes to important moments. I'm encouraged by the para GFS. After a rough start, I think it has been really good. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

No, I saw them.

But I missed the ones that said the euro was wrong .......... for whatever reason.

I'm of the opinion that 5 days out they have to be blended (as you said) and that any of them individually has to be viewed with skepticism.

Agenda driven forecasters are terrible, from DT to Bastardi.

So with that,  I agree.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are elements where the GFS and the Euro actually came together.  So, it may not be fair to say that either were perfectly right.  Though, I think we should all be in awe that the models sniffed out a historic track well in advance, even if some of the later time-period elements were (and still are) in doubt.

 

Here, you can see the outflow channel to the east.  I'm really interested in seeing how this storm holds together once it has stalled.  I know the models aren't suggesting it, but I would guess that there would be a pretty significant weakening.

Capture.JPG

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018091200_48_35_444.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

lol does that say 93 inches

Yes it does.  It includes nearly 32" in 12 hours.  And that's after 39" has already fallen.  I'm not sure if the Ukie is really showing that or if something went wrong with the weather.us map making algorithm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

DT's head must have exploded. Ever since yesterday's 12Z Euro caved to the GFS stall and crawl solution he has been no where to be found. Shame. I actually love his videos. 

Florence is looking impressive this morning. She is regaining her symmetry and the core is expanding. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, cae said:

Yes it does.  It includes nearly 32" in 12 hours.  And that's after 39" has already fallen.  I'm not sure if the Ukie is really showing that or if something went wrong with the weather.us map making algorithm.

It won’t be tha high but there could be a few big localized numbers if the eyewall stalls in the same place for 2 days. In the 40+ range

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

There are elements where the GFS and the Euro actually came together.  So, it may not be fair to say that either were perfectly right.  Though, I think we should all be in awe that the models sniffed out a historic track well in advance, even if some of the later time-period elements were (and still are) in doubt.

 

Here, you can see the outflow channel to the east.  I'm really interested in seeing how this storm holds together once it has stalled.  I know the models aren't suggesting it, but I would guess that there would be a pretty significant weakening.

Capture.JPG

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018091200_48_35_444.png

Yesterday before the coastal scrape idea took hold, I thought we'd see a landfall at 145mph. A bit higher than the NHC forecast, but I figured the shear would be overmodeled and continental dry air wouldn't be an issue. Now, I've come off that position but I think you'd agree that even with significant weakening, this is going to be pretty bad in the SE especially along the coast. I always say this but the evolution of this one might be the most interesting I've seen. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yesterday before the coastal scrape idea took hold, I thought we'd see a landfall at 145mph. A bit higher than the NHC forecast, but I figured the shear would be overmodeled and continental dry air wouldn't be an issue. Now, I've come off that position but I think you'd agree that even with significant weakening, this is going to be pretty bad in the SE especially along the coast. I always say this but the evolution of this one might be the most interesting I've seen. 

I wouldn't want to be in, or own property in, southeast NC.  They are going to get it all - surge, winds, rain.  I have a bit more skepticism that this really impacts SC significantly outside of the rainfall.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, mappy said:

im' guessing you missed the posts where MN transplant explained that the GFS was right for the wrong reasons. 

Fair point.

But is that necessarily better than being wrong for the right reasons?

(I'm not defending the GFS - just saying we tend to treat the very real difference in performance between the Euro and the GFS as much bigger than it really is. I'm mostly talking about the DT's of the world, and the weenies who've heard that the "EURO is king!" and think that means its infallible and that the GFS is worthless.)

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Fair point.

But is that any better than being wrong for the right reasons?

LOL touche 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’d be worried about GA getting caught off guard at this point. 

We’re getting completely shut out this weekend too lol

Depends where you mean by "We're"  its not over for allot of places .... (depending where it goes) still allot of flooding could take place...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said:

Depends where you mean by "We're"  its not over for allot of places in the Mid Atlantic.... (depending where it goes) still allot of flooding could take place...

Barring a total whiff by all the models (its possible), I would say that from Richmond North their will be little no effects from the storm.  Maybe some showers and thunderstorms, but we have been doing that song and dance for the last three months.  If the remnants come through sometime next week we could see an inch or two rain, but that is nothing compared to some of the rainfall we have had this year.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I wouldn't want to be in, or own property in, southeast NC.  They are going to get it all - surge, winds, rain.  I have a bit more skepticism that this really impacts SC significantly outside of the rainfall.

I'm really worried some of those barrier islands will see so much surge that they will just disappear forever.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am still holding out hope for this area. Isabel and Fran hit in the same area and there was some stuff even up in New Jersey.

I think this whole stall thing is still very much uncertain. How long does it stall before it finally moves on out? I don't think the models have that figured out and some of this is still at 5+ day lead times.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I'm really worried some of those barrier islands will see so much surge that they will just disappear forever.

I vacation at Bogue Banks/Emerald Isle yearly and they have built it up  a lot over the years. Tons of million dollar homes right on the water and no protection. Looks like ground zero. They are in for a world of hurt. Its really sad to think about.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just want to repost this here because it could be helpful. 

16 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

There’s also a syntopic scale gradient wind threat up into the  Mid Atlantic due to Florence’s large circulation and 1028 mb HP over ME, causing persistent onshore flow which will also likely produce coastal flooding and heavy rain well away from the center—Eastern VA, Eastern MD, Eastern NC and DE all appear at risk in this regard.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

There are elements where the GFS and the Euro actually came together.  So, it may not be fair to say that either were perfectly right.  Though, I think we should all be in awe that the models sniffed out a historic track well in advance, even if some of the later time-period elements were (and still are) in doubt.

 

Here, you can see the outflow channel to the east.  I'm really interested in seeing how this storm holds together once it has stalled.  I know the models aren't suggesting it, but I would guess that there would be a pretty significant weakening.

 

 

I 100% agree.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

I vacation at Bogue Banks/Emerald Isle yearly and they have built it up  a lot over the years. Tons of million dollar homes right on the water and no protection. Looks like ground zero. They are in for a world of hurt. Its really sad to think about.

 

 

I have been going to Indian Beach the last couple years (Just got back last week actually).  They are in for a world of hurt if they get the brunt of this storm.  There really is no defense from the Ocean there.  I am just hoping they miss the worst parts of the storm.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Question for the experts:  I thought the original concern with the GFS stall solutions was not necessarily that the system was stalling (hurricanes sometimes do that), but that the GFS showed Florence intensifying while sitting over the same area of ocean for several days.  E.g. this run from Monday.

IOaLSIj.gif

My understanding was that in the real world, there would be significant upwelling under the storm that would cool the sea surface and limit intensification.  The GFS (and FV3, from what I understand) might not capture this because there is no coupling between their atmospheric and ocean models.  Is that right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, cae said:

Question for the experts:  I thought the original concern with the GFS stall solutions was not necessarily that the system was stalling (hurricanes sometimes do that), but that the GFS showed Florence intensifying while sitting over the same area of ocean for several days.  E.g. this run from Monday.

IOaLSIj.gif

My understanding was that in the real world, there would be significant upwelling under the storm that would cool the sea surface and limit intensification.  The GFS (and FV3, from what I understand) might not capture this because there is no coupling between their atmospheric and ocean models.  Is that right?

DT claims that fv3 is now coupled.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×