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WxWatcher007

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

nah, can't say that. look at what the models just did. GFS went south, Euro goes crazy with a hell of a stall, then literally moves SOUTH along the coast into SC. 

I am sure there is going to be a lot of monday morning quarterbacking on what cities/states did right/wrong, but lets save it for after the storm. 

The only thing governments can do wrong with this storm is to not prepare.

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

I’m of the opinion that we put people in place to make these tough decisions and that it’s better to be safe than sorry

Bold.

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5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

All day the scenario has been west , southwest and now south/southwest. I could be wrong but where I come from that's a trend, regardless of the final outcome and the reason. But I'm guessing a strong ridge is responsible for this.

Sorry if I came across the other way, the SW/W/SSW movement is 100% a trend and it is what looks to be happening. I just think that frankly the EURO track would have tossed if the GFS had done the same thing.

GFS had just moved towards the EURO solution and now we have two distinctly different solutions presented, again. 

heck, 3 if you count the CMC. What did the UKIE look like today?

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5 minutes ago, frd said:

That's cool. I hope this winter we shovel more snow !  

And, I am not sure, but possibly the GFS does better with the Northern Stream dominated systems at times . I have read that over the years. Each has had hot hands and the GFS does score a coup over the might Euro at times.   

GFS does better with northern stream/progressive flow. Euro likes to over amplify shortwaves in the midrange with that type of pattern. I'll say this though, if we have a nino type year with a southern stream then I'll hug the euro in the med-short range all day long. 

Even with Flo the euro has been superior with landfall location and coastal impacts. Assuming that todays guidance is closer to reality of course. 

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Zones still have "tropical storm conditions possible" for Friday into Saturday for some of our region -- mainly DC area and south

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Afternoon AFD from LWX re Florence:

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Hurricane Florence is poised to make landfall along the North
Carolina coast early Friday morning. Shortly thereafter, Florence
will stall somewhere over North Carolina or Virginia, but uncertainty
still remains in exactly where. For our area, the primary threat
from Florence will be the potential for a prolonged period of heavy
rainfall across the region. With uncertainty remaining around the
exact track of Florence after landfall, it is a bit early to
highlight a specific area for heavy rain potential, however the
threat for significant rainfall and flooding is there for the
weekend into early next week, so continue to monitor the latest
forecast for new information.

Strong easterly flow to the north of the system will also raise
coastal flooding concerns along the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal
Potomac. Currently the strongest winds associated with Florence are
expected to stay off to the south of our area. However, there could
still be a threat for downed trees given saturated soil and at least
some wind. We will continue to post updates as new data and
information becomes available to us. The official track forecast
(and plenty of other information about the storm) is available on
the National Hurricane Center`s website.

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1 minute ago, Subtropics said:

This will shift back north. This trend in the wrong way in the 3 day range is standard stuff in winter.

May I ask why you feel that this will shift back north?  

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

May I ask why you feel that this will shift back north?  

I'll eat crow if this storm stops on the breaks and dives SW or even shoots due west. That type of thing just doesnt really happen at 35N. First time for everything though I guess?

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Just now, yoda said:

May I ask why you feel that this will shift back north?  

Just my two cents, seems strong canes almost always end up going further north than modeled, and, for me, seems like strong ridging north of us is often modeled stronger than reality proves.

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37 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

The evacuation orders in va beach are certainly looking foolish right now.

True but the initial part of this Euro run gets it up closer to Va tidewater than 0z and yesterday’s 12z I believe before it heads to the Georgia Dome. :) Is it still called that??

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Euro has the stall and SW movement in a bit of a different place, but it doesn't really change the overall forecast that this has the most impact on the Wilmington area and has no impact up here.

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1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

True but the initial part of this Euro run gets it up closer to Va tidewater than 0z and yesterday’s 12z I believe before it heads to the Georgia Dome. :) Is it still called that??

Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The 'Dome is no more. 

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2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I mentioned this on Twitter. How can this still be the forecast for rain?

I'm not sure I understand your question? 

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6 minutes ago, mappy said:

 

They seem to be out to lunch with this for our subforum.  This looks like the Euro runs from this weekend when it had the storm moving NNW after landfall. 

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2 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

I mentioned this on Twitter. How can this still be the forecast for rain?

Yeah, I'm skeptical of the northern extent of those 8"-plus numbers, especially if the southern solutions verify. Seems like the whole swath should be canted more west. 

Then again, NWS tends to lag the prevailing model guidance, so...

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

They seem to be out to lunch with this for our subforum.  This looks like the Euro runs from this weekend when it had the storm moving NNW after landfall. 

    This is the WPC forecast issued very early this morning.   At that time, WPC didn't want to deviate too much from previous thinking, but I think they *have* to make adjustments in the afternoon package.

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3 minutes ago, 5speed6 said:

Yeah, I'm skeptical of the northern extent of those 8"-plus numbers, especially if the southern solutions verify. Seems like the whole swath should be canted more west. 

Then again, NWS tends to lag the prevailing model guidance, so...

When wpc qpf updates, I definitely expect much lower rainfall up here.

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Just now, 5speed6 said:

Yeah, I'm skeptical of the northern extent of those 8"-plus numbers, especially if the southern solutions verify. Seems like the whole swath should be canted more west. 

Then again, NWS tends to lag the prevailing model guidance, so...

There's another way to look at it.  They are pros.  Their interpretation of model data doesn't necessarily match ours.

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Just now, high risk said:

    This is the WPC forecast issued very early this morning.   At that time, WPC didn't want to deviate too much from previous thinking, but I think they *have* to make adjustments in the afternoon package.

Ah ha, didn't realize this product was issued so early in the morning, makes sense. 

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2 minutes ago, mappy said:

I'm not sure I understand your question? 

Well, no guidance is now showing the most rain falls (outside of where she comes on shore) in our region. None of them. And yet that rainfall map shows the most rain falls in the eastern half of NC and the eastern half of Va. Why? Makes no sense.

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Just now, wasnow215 said:

Well, no guidance is now showing the most rain falls (outside of where she comes on shore) in our region. None of them. And yet that rainfall map shows the most rain falls in the eastern half of NC and the eastern half of Va. Why? Makes no sense.

1. was made this morning via WPC

2. was posted pre-Euro

3. nothing is set in stone, and I am sure they will make appropriate adjustments

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2 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

They seem to be out to lunch with this for our subforum.  This looks like the Euro runs from this weekend when it had the storm moving NNW after landfall. 

This is definitely overdone based on the new guidance, but it is a map through Tuesday.  If the High weakens and the remnants move North after the "Stall and Jog" then perhaps we could see rain Sunday night into Tuesday.  But if the High Pressure wins out then this NWS map is out to lunch.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There's another way to look at it.  They are pros.  Their interpretation of model data doesn't necessarily match ours.

Of course. And they're less likely to change their thinking based on a single model run, as the past few pages illustrate.

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1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Well, no guidance is now showing the most rain falls (outside of where she comes on shore) in our region. None of them. And yet that rainfall map shows the most rain falls in the eastern half of NC and the eastern half of Va. Why? Makes no sense.

It's a graphic from very early this morning when model guidance still was suggesting heavy rainfall to the east of the current track. They don't update their graphics every minute of every day. 

And it does make sense given prior model guidance. The new model guidance obviously will necessitate adjustments. 

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