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WxWatcher007

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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5 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

The two concerns I have is one, historic Ellicott City, and two, my family is supposed to be in Richmond for my pregnant wife's grandmother's 100th birthday. So, we're watching this closely. And no, I don't live in historic Ellicott City, but looking at the potential rain totals from this storms should have them worried right now. 

I wouldn't focus too much on those maps being posted right now (these are only possibilities in a whole range of outcomes, not a 100% possibility) It could be anything from this to a miss to something in between.

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I remember from last season that the GFS ensembles were acknowledged to have too small a spread. Does anyone know if that has been addressed in the interim?

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Reason for pause? So if it does develop slower (and it looks rather unhealthy, currently)...what the GFS spit out wouldn't necessarily happen, right? (Wonder if this would favor more OTS tracks eventually?)

Screenshot_20180908-220816_Chrome.jpg

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

That is awesome! Here is the gif:

image.png.c0eee4c1f7e47618ec026163b03748df.png

 

Cool! I tried to post gif and it wouldn't let me. Need to get app to compress gifs to fit this forum specs I guess. Thanks for posting. 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Its working on the first posted one now Clskinsfan

Yeah. It appears if you post the link it will auto populate. Someone mentioned earlier we are in good practice for the winter. I need to remember that :)

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DT

Next update 12am or so... it will be audio with maps...

As a meteorologist and a long time weather weenie we like big historical events like hurricanes or blizzards and they get a lot of attention. For the most part blizzards are not big deal properly and dont kill lots of people.

Stalling and dying hurricanes over land masses can and do produce tornadoes and widespread flooding which can become quite severe. The fact of the matter is that some of the people readin this Facebook page ...will by September 20th will have gone through hell. Some might lose family members ...some might lose Farms... Vineyards.... orchards... homes ..

Like I said the.... **** is about to go sideways

<iframe src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/post.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FWxRisk%2Fposts%2F1856207157759867&width=500" width="500" height="280" style="border:none;overflow:hidden" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowTransparency="true" allow="encrypted-media"></iframe>

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20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Reason for pause? So if it does develop slower (and it looks rather unhealthy, currently)...what the GFS spit out wouldn't necessarily happen, right? (Wonder if this would favor more OTS tracks eventually?)

Screenshot_20180908-220816_Chrome.jpg

If it develops slower and is weaker then it would favor a further south track. Strong storms are the ones that push poleward.

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24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Reason for pause? So if it does develop slower (and it looks rather unhealthy, currently)...what the GFS spit out wouldn't necessarily happen, right? (Wonder if this would favor more OTS tracks eventually?)

Screenshot_20180908-220816_Chrome.jpg

I disagree with him. I think the rate of intensification has been on track with the NHC forecast. Things are supposed to take off in the next 12-24 hours. 

23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That is awesome! Here is the gif:

HMMM. Well. That didnt work. So here is the link to the gif

glfstrsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif

 

 

 

Nice gif. The SSTs only tell part of the story. TCHP is good near the SE coast and there are a number of warm eddies along the path of Florence. 

JBJ4KBN.jpg

8 minutes ago, AcePuppy said:

zYSrsrG.png

That's something.

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Looks like everyone gets to over analyze the latest cloud to flare up or slight for the next 24 hours and make grandiose claims about sniffing out a trend.

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

That's something.

Seeing the 0z cane models tightly clustered after new data ingest is definitely interesting. I also agree that intensification and strength is not going to be a problem. A full 5 days over prime temp open ocean is more than enough time. I'll bet vis satellite tomorrow will end that discussion. 

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like everyone gets to over analyze the latest cloud to flare up or slight for the next 24 hours and make grandiose claims about sniffing out a trend.

In the end it will not do anything we think it will do.  

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That's a bad look for HAT. 3 days of hurricane force winds. Jeeze.

I'm torn. Have a house here in Northern Virginia. A house in the Northern Outer Banks region. And my business is property insurance claims. I'm not sure what to root for or what to root against.

I would think the GFS stall/loop would upwell enough of the Atlantic to kill the winds relatively more quickly than modeled. Maybe not. These storms are strange animals. I've been through several and their aftermaths. Worked every major storm since 2003. Even Katrina. Nothing is ever as uniform as suspected. So many little local nuances and anomalies. Thankfully we have a great subform that doesn't jump and hug every model output. We all know and understand things will change. At least we have something to look at. The weather has been absolutely awfully boring for a very long time.

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Reason for pause? So if it does develop slower (and it looks rather unhealthy, currently)...what the GFS spit out wouldn't necessarily happen, right? (Wonder if this would favor more OTS tracks eventually?)

Screenshot_20180908-220816_Chrome.jpg

Pretty wild that dude has the same last name as me

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Stalling at 123...ridge in the Atlantic was further east...not sure it’s going to do it

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

GFS is definitely slower than 12z euro but it's wobbling right towards land at hr102.

0z is weaker with the atl ridge than 18z. Should end up east. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

0z is weaker with the atl ridge than 18z. Should end up east. 

Yea, this sucks.

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