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WxWatcher007

2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

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The official start of the season is just around the corner, and in my last act as a resident of this region I am starting the 2018 thread. The last few years have brought some interesting tracking moments, but nothing much (as usual) to show for it along I-95. Last year was a historic season, with numerous and consecutive major hurricanes threatening the US. I was actually able to chase a PTC (the only one that didn't become a tropical storm lol) in Virginia Beach and recorded sustained minimal TS winds and a gust to 45. 

This season, the forecast is uncertain. After some bullish seasonal forecasts early on, the picture is more muddled with the potential of a developing Nino during the peak of the season, and the MDR seeing some of the coldest SSTs we've seen in quite some time. I don't usually place much stock in seasonal forecasts, especially when there are ENSO question marks, but my guess is we see a near to above normal season, which may be centered toward the peak given the current SST setup. We'll see. 

Quote
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1045 AM EDT Fri May 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the Bahamas is
associated with an upper-level low pressure system and a surface
trough.  The system is forecast to move westward over the Florida
peninsula on Saturday with no significant development.  Locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over portions of the
Bahamas and southern Florida through this weekend.  Please monitor
products from your local weather office for more details.  No
additional Special Outlooks on this system will be issued unless
conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Pasch/Blake

 Not much going on here, but it's preseason and our first lemon.

Visible looks impressive, but there's not a whole lot of beauty under the hood. There's a lot of dry air with this one as it tries to pop a surface low. Other than that, not much on the horizon, but the next month or two becomes homebrew season so watch out for those stalled fronts. 

Looking forward to chasing another system this season. 

5aece59c03eb4_ScreenShot2018-05-04at6_53_59PM.png.dc5019f207b032d55071b573d818de37.png

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Will be cool to watch this from a distance! Know nothing about tropical, so I should hopefully learn a lot from you guys :)

 

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16 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

We'll see where this is in 10 days ..

gfs_z500_mslp_atl_53.png

I'm not biting :P 

On 5/4/2018 at 11:35 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Looking at early indicators and I’m already set to jump- is the reaper active for tropical season or just the winter?

Hahaha it's too early to jump  

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

 

It's still there..instead of "way out in fantasy land" .... We've moved up to just fantasy land LOL. 

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_44.png

I'm pretty surprised the GFS hasn't let go yet, but heck if something is going to pop it's going to be there :lol: 

2018128atsst.png

2018128at.jpg

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Gefs signaling for possible northern gulf low formation at the 100 hour ish time frame ...probably weak but might allow for eventual deep moisture to pull north to us. 

Gefs

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

Op 

gfs_z500_mslp_us_18.png

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On 5/5/2018 at 12:45 AM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I think this holds true this year. February and May 2018 have shown a new placement of the Atlantic Tropical Ridge: Northwest. Previous placement for recurvature is much weaker now. 
 

 

Seems true more or less every year since 2015. The lack of strong hurricanes at the proper longitude is the only reason the NE has avoided a hurricane strike since then IMO. Irma was close - a few pieces were derailed by the maritimes LP.

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Liking what I've been seeing on the Euro and GFS today. NHC taking note. SSTs don't look great for tropical but the big deal with this is the tropical tap opening up more than any wind. 

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131939
TWOAT 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
340 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending
from western Cuba across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the
Florida Straits, and much of the Florida Peninsula is associated
with a broad surface low and trough interacting with an upper-level
low. This system could acquire some subtropical or tropical
characteristics while it moves slowly northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. Regardless of subtropical
or tropical cyclone formation, this system will enhance rainfall
across portions of Florida and the northeastern Gulf Coast during
the next few days. For more information on this system, please see
products issued by your local weather office. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 11 AM EDT
Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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11 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

What ever happens with the tropical system down off the Yucatan late next week looks to make a bee line for us . Here's Gfs and Euro H5

 

 

Was just looking at that....Gfs and Para try to merge the trop system with a front moving thru the area.  This has been pretty consistent on the GFS.  8 days away and a long shot it plays out exactly like that but with a saturated ground the potential impacts are pretty high.

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15 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Check out this moisture plume....coming from wayyy...wayyy deep in the tropics. 

18z Gfs 

 

That's a decent fetch for some heavy rains.  We just need to orient that a tad more NW -> SE and nudge it further west.  Decent signal for another round of locally heavy rain though.

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern
Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated
with the interaction of a large upper-level low with a weak surface
trough.  While environmental conditions are expected to be
unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some
gradual development is possible later this week while the system
moves into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba
and Florida over the next several days.  For more information on
the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local
weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 800 PM EDT tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

 

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At the risk of a dtk beat down, I really hope they’re able to work out the issues with tropical cyclone genesis on the FV3-GFS.

To be fair, I’m only looking at the Atlantic basin in this pre-season with the experimental model, but  in the last few weeks it’s been the worst tropical model I’ve ever seen. Apparently it was excellent last season.

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1 hour ago, Bosswx said:

Look at the fv3 gfs would be catastrophic for that area...Doubt it will happen though?...:o:huh:

It reminds me of the old CRAS model showing 24-36” of powder from Key West to Bangor in the dead of March lol

edit: but seriously, I think the environment is entirely unsupportive of such a solution. 

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29 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Hey who likes my new avatar? Can anyone remember what it is? Lol

Joaquin as portrayed by the GFS? 

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1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Hey who likes my new avatar? Can anyone remember what it is? Lol

What a catastrophe that was lol. You can't believe in snow or tropical around here until the bands are dumping on you and Radarscope is lit up like a Christmas tree. 

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38 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Nope, but you’re close- it is a GFS fantasy storm. :-)

Hmm... Maria maybe?

Edit: see you posted the answer. I guess I was still close timing wise though 

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