ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 00Z ECMWF is not looking looking pretty for the Carolinas. Looking like a NC/SC border hit around hour 156. Running inland along the NC/SC border at 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: 00Z ECMWF is not looking looking pretty for the Carolinas. Looking like a NC/SC border hit around hour 156. Running inland along the NC/SC border at 168. Yeah that would devastate Wilmington and myrtle beach but would be a miss here in greenville. Too far south moving the wrong direction. Now only 5 more days until we actually know more about the reality of the modeled death ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, shaggy said: Yeah that would devastate Wilmington and myrtle beach but would be a miss here in greenville. Too far south moving the wrong direction. Now only 5 more days until we actually know more about the reality of the modeled death ridge. Cuts almost due North between 168 and 192 looks like it passes almost directly over Greensboro or Winston Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 0z Euro at hour 162,big wind gusts/rain up through the piedmont on this run.Landfall at Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Not pretty for NC. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090700/north-carolina/acc-total-precipitation/20180916-1200z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090700/north-carolina/gusts-3h-mph/20180914-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090700/north-carolina/gusts-3h-mph/20180914-0600z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018090700/north-carolina/gusts-3h-mph/20180914-1200z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Move 150 miles south, drop the mb by 40, and I will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 The big take away is that pretty much all the models except the GFS have a landfall or very near miss over NC in some capacity next Thursday......that is still a solid week out but I gotta admit to being a tad bit nervous at the model agreement.....it really does remind me a lot of Isabel that was a similar beeline WNW track that was pretty set in stone...that's one of the few storms that I knew was gonna hit 3-4 days out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Oh Lordy Jesus... Is all i'm sayin.. But, Maybe fun.. they said.. Until it isn't,, after a week or two without power.. (and your gas runs out for your generator). Wilmington, (like when Floyd happened) will become a ISLAND for a WEEK.. No way in or out.. With the explosive development We've had.. This will be a real test, to see if all that water goes "somewhere".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 minute ago, SENC said: Oh Lordy Jesus... Is all i'm sayin.. But, Maybe fun.. they said.. Until it isn't,, after a week or two without power.. (and your gas runs out for your generator). Wilmington, (like when Floyd happened) will become a ISLAND for a WEEK.. No way in or out.. With the explosive development We've had.. This will be a real test, to see if all that water goes "somewhere".. 7 days away so no worries yet. Got a loooooooong time to go before the details get settled out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Oh boy here we go... She's starting to look healthier on the IR with a possible eyewalk forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Oh boy here we go... She's starting to look healthier on the IR with a possible eyewalk forming Hopefully she’ll walk it out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Replying to SENC's quote below from other forum: "Besides If We get "wacked" I know some pretty cool places to set up.. Sat on "Sheep Island" during Fran, THAT was a experience!" Fran was my first major hurricane experience. I rode it out only 500 yards from the Intracoastal waterway in Scott's Hill. It was awesome and will always have a special place for me...despite the other majors I've experienced since or hope to document in the future. That said, I'm very interested in hearing about your own incredible Fran encounter, as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Replying to SENC's quote below from other forum: "Besides If We get "wacked" I know some pretty cool places to set up.. Sat on "Sheep Island" during Fran, THAT was a experience!" Fran was my first major hurricane experience. I rode it out only 500 yards from the Intracoastal waterway in Scott's Hill. It was awesome and will always have a special place for me...despite the other majors I've experienced since or hope to document in the future. That said, I'm very interested in hearing about your own incredible Fran encounter, as well! Fran was a beast....we gusted to 106 in Greenville, I will never forget sitting on the porch with winds gusting into the 90-100 mph range and watching hundreds of flashes as transformers blew all over the city.....that and the trees coming down everywhere and wondering if the carport/roof was going to stay on the house lol. To bad it was a night hit for us.....they are easier to take in the light. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 5am: W at 275 degrees, 25.1N 11am: W at 270 degrees, 25.0N Better watch that trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 The 12z NHC track continues the shift SW. Carolinas in the sites now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Unless it pulls an Irma and just keeps trending west and south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Wow said: Unless it pulls an Irma and just keeps trending west and south. yea was thinking the same thing. a few pics from the nhc forecast and model plots for irma popped up on my timehop today and it showed crazy agreement over the sc upstate 120hrs or so out, and we all know how that ended up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 In the past I thought wunderground had maps that showed historical storm tracks that passed within a 100 miles of a current storms location. Unfortunately I haven't been able to find those maps anymore. Is there another site out there that has that info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 GFS carved to the EURO. Direct hit just south of OBX moves inland torward Southern Virginia. Bye Bye OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 That would be devastating for the OBX, ENC, and SEVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Just by watching model trends I am beginning to believe this will end up being much more concerning and will end up being devastating for a lot of North Carolina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: Just by watching model trends I am beginning to believe this will end up being much more concerning and will end up being devastating for a lot of North Carolina. Every model now has landfall near NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Yeah major changes from yesterday helping my uncle prepare a few of our properties near the coast this weekend. Just in case.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 7, 2018 Author Share Posted September 7, 2018 54 minutes ago, Steven_1974 said: In the past I thought wunderground had maps that showed historical storm tracks that passed within a 100 miles of a current storms location. Unfortunately I haven't been able to find those maps anymore. Is there another site out there that has that info? crankyweatherguy @crankywxguy 3m3 minutes ago Florence, regardless of end game, will be highly unique onto itself. Slated to be at 25N/55W tomorrow night. Here are all storms that hit that area. Only a couple come close . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Someone needs to start a Florence thread. That ridge isnt gonna allow her to curve in time. If any trend that's available and can help Carolina coast it's a more SW trend. Of course our gain will be our neighbors to the south lost. Hate seeing Ridges set up like they have the past 7 plus days and beyond anytime of the year. But espeacilly during the peak of Hurricane season. Worst fears from late last week on the long range model forecast are appearing to come to fruition. Complaining about heat and high dew points is about to become the least of our worries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 7 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said: Replying to SENC's quote below from other forum: "Besides If We get "wacked" I know some pretty cool places to set up.. Sat on "Sheep Island" during Fran, THAT was a experience!" Fran was my first major hurricane experience. I rode it out only 500 yards from the Intracoastal waterway in Scott's Hill. It was awesome and will always have a special place for me...despite the other majors I've experienced since or hope to document in the future. That said, I'm very interested in hearing about your own incredible Fran encounter, as well! Sheep Island is a "spoil Island" on the Lockwood Folly Inlet, about 200' in elevation.. Actually if you look at the google Maps, it kinda sets like Bald head just inside the inlet.. You need a john boat to get there from sunset Harbor, (where I lived).. Waves like I've never seen in My life, watching the East end of Holden beach get DESTROYED.. My "sunglasses" were sand blasted.. seriously.. Waves & storm surge, indurating the West end of Oak island & the East of Holden was something to observe.. Like a massive flash flood all at once.. in minutes. Honestly, I was young & dumb.. Beer & liquor & My buddies that ,WE took,, & "took that bet" were betting We would become Darwin Award Nominees.. We were lucky we didn't loose the boat, being Aluminum, We sunk the dern thing, carried the outboard uphill, so we could get back across the sound.. Winds We experienced were every bit Cat2/3 solid... Waves I observed looked like "white water" but were probably in the 20~30 foot range.. EASY, (it look like Tsunamis continuously).. A LOAD ROAR from the waves.. That Island was SHAKING! On top of that "JET Sound" from the Wind(s).. It got downright HAIRY except from the beer/liquor & dope, I'm still surprised We survived the experience.. yea, We "huddled" and drink those last drops & PRAYED.. Honestly you don't want to experience something like that on a "Spoil Island", even in a "protected area" it really kinda sucks, I had sand everywhere.. even up inside places I never thought of.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 GGEM Takes it into Savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 7, 2018 Share Posted September 7, 2018 Went ahead and started a Florence thread. Hopefully it's for naught and not an historical thread we come back and read years latter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 8, 2018 Author Share Posted September 8, 2018 We now have TS Isaac. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 11, 2018 Author Share Posted September 11, 2018 Interesting... Dare County hurricane history since 1985. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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