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2018 General Tropical Discussion


Solak
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42 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I'm not pulling for a direct hit from a hurricane (like the euro shows); but the GFS would be great. It keeps the storm just off shore spinning until it eventually pulls down nice cool air to the north. Basically the storm would help break this terrible hot pattern we're in.  

Or the subsidence around the storm would bake us with bright blue skies and temps in the 90's. That's the way it was the day after fran hit. 

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24 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Or the subsidence around the storm would bake us with bright blue skies and temps in the 90's. That's the way it was the day after fran hit. 

True, but as long as we can keep it east of us eventually it will transition from tropical to extra-tropical and we may get the cool air pulled down. But still far out. This storm may still stay farther out to sea.   

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Overachieving

835 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FIRST OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

Recent satellite imagery indicates that Florence is still
strengthening and is now a major hurricane.  Maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h).  This increase in
intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued with the 1100 AM
AST (1500 UTC) advisory package.

5:00 AM Discusssion

INIT  05/0900Z 21.4N  44.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 22.2N  46.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  06/0600Z 23.2N  48.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  06/1800Z 24.2N  50.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  07/0600Z 24.9N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/0600Z 25.6N  54.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  09/0600Z 26.8N  56.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  10/0600Z 28.7N  58.2W   85 KT 100 MPH

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DT in a recent video mentioned how the setup is similar to isabel so i decided to bring up an upper air map for comparisons sake.

Image result for hurricane isabel upper air

(hopefully it isnt a massive image)

gfs-ens_mslpa_atl_19.png

Florence at roughly the same location on the GEFS ensembles, notice the high over the NE. That's what will likely block Florence from recurving early enough to recurve OTS without affecting land. Over the next few days we need to watch very closely how the models place that ridge. Personally I believe Florence will, at the very least, get close. I really hope the cool water and dry air prevents strengthening because OBX may experience hurricane force conditions.

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2 hours ago, shaggy said:

Or the subsidence around the storm would bake us with bright blue skies and temps in the 90's. That's the way it was the day after fran hit. 

yeppers, Brutal after Fran..., HOT, HOT, HOT... That was just after We got sliced by Bertha the month & 1/2 before..

We'll Gotta go check & do quick Maint. on My Generator.. (It's only has .04 hours on it, (brand new really).. Knowing the Cape Fears good luck, we'll get "whacked"..

Maybe I'll get good Picture Footage & Obs for you Inland peeps from here this year..

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Gotta love a good clickbait :lmao:

If Hurricane Florence makes landfall as a Cat 3-5, prediction path AP04 could result in Charlotte experiencing a direct hit by a hurricane – something we haven’t experienced since Hurricane Hugo devastated our city back in 1989.

http://www.charlottestories.com/hurricane-florence-could-hit-the-carolinas-next-week/

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47 minutes ago, Solak said:

Gotta love a good clickbait :lmao:

If Hurricane Florence makes landfall as a Cat 3-5, prediction path AP04 could result in Charlotte experiencing a direct hit by a hurricane – something we haven’t experienced since Hurricane Hugo devastated our city back in 1989.

http://www.charlottestories.com/hurricane-florence-could-hit-the-carolinas-next-week/

Someone should be seriously reprimanded for allowing that to be published.  Good grief!!  They could have reworded the article and said exactly the same thing in a more wx pc format.  "While models are uncertain in this timeframe and the exact track is yet to be determined, it is worth noting that the last time Charlotte experienced hurricane conditions was....xyz.  We'll keep you posted as new details are available."

Ugh!

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5:00PM - 130mph Cat 4

INIT  05/2100Z 22.7N  46.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 23.5N  48.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 24.5N  49.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 25.2N  51.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 25.5N  52.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 26.0N  55.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 27.0N  57.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 29.0N  60.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

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45 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Storm still moving as far to the eastern edge of the cone as possible to boot, moving almost NNW at the moment.......gonna take a unprecedented track to get a US landfall especially with the storms current heading....

 

What the models keep saying will happen and what actually is happening don't seem to match up to well. No model even hinted at a cat 4 and she is just out there doing what she wants. If that ridge is as strong as modeled you would have to see a sharp left turn and stay that way for a while to get it to the east coast.

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22 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

She is weakening, which means a better chance of heading more westward. The models are now showing it heading further west before turning north. The Euro, ICON, and CMC all show it hitting NC. Right now I would not bet it heading out to sea and not hitting the east coast.

Also, it's dead in here. 

Wait till next week, it'll pick up big time if she comes close to us.

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That CMC run is about as worst case for eastern NC as it gets track wise.....has Emerald Isle in the north and east eyewall the entire time, crushed Jacksonville down to Topsail then moves inland and had Greenville and New Bern in the north and then east eyewalls the entire time...this would put 10-15 ft of water up the Neuse and Tar rivers, then it stalls and rains out over central and eastern NC....ugh.  

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The key with the Canadian is the low that it spins up off the FL/GA coast. This allows some weakness and Florence "chases" it inward. The ridge then builds in and completely blocks it from going north. Right now, not putting much stock in it. No other models have that feature showing up.

Lots of fun tracking coming. (And long hours)

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