Orangeburgwx Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 2 hours ago, shaggy said: Models finally starting to hint at some development down the road. Yeah but notice that set up? Identical to the freight train last year with Irma and Jose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: Yeah but notice that set up? Identical to the freight train last year with Irma and Jose No reason to look at anything beyond the models showing some agreement at a system or 2 getting going in the tropics. This season has been lackluster and to just have a system on a model is good for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted August 28, 2018 Share Posted August 28, 2018 When both the EURO and GFS agree... You know it is time to monitor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 29, 2018 Share Posted August 29, 2018 10 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: When both the EURO and GFS agree... You know it is time to monitor Both agree any cape verde systems look like fish systems at the moment. There is some sniffing around the idea of something around the Bahamas but nothing too organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 1, 2018 Author Share Posted September 1, 2018 Saturday morning AFD (RAH) The bigger question remains what happens with the tropics through the period, as the medium-range models cannot seem to agree the ECMWF has a tropical system hitting the northern Gulf coast mid-week, while the GFS hints at a system approaching the Mid-Atlantic coast over the weekend. Will wait to see if they start to agree more before over- analyzing the "what if`s" of each scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 1, 2018 Share Posted September 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, Solak said: Saturday morning AFD (RAH) The bigger question remains what happens with the tropics through the period, as the medium-range models cannot seem to agree the ECMWF has a tropical system hitting the northern Gulf coast mid-week, while the GFS hints at a system approaching the Mid-Atlantic coast over the weekend. Will wait to see if they start to agree more before over- analyzing the "what if`s" of each scenario. 06Z GFS is further southwest with Florence again compared to the 00z. Add the huge shift west from the euro overnight and keep those trends going and we will at least have something to track in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 1, 2018 Share Posted September 1, 2018 3 hours ago, shaggy said: 06Z GFS is further southwest with Florence again compared to the 00z. Add the huge shift west from the euro overnight and keep those trends going and we will at least have something to track in the long range. New England is long overdue for a landfall from a Hurricane (maybe Bob 1991 the last) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted September 1, 2018 Share Posted September 1, 2018 Soon to be Invest 07L in the gulf? An orange on the NHC 5-day. 12Z EC and 18Z GFS not so nice to New Orleans at 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 1, 2018 Share Posted September 1, 2018 1 hour ago, AbsolutZero said: Soon to be Invest 07L in the gulf? An orange on the NHC 5-day. 12Z EC and 18Z GFS not so nice to New Orleans at 84hrs. Thanks for posting! The NAM and Canadian also show possible development. Who knows.....we sure have been lacking to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Euro and ukmet both show more westward track with florence while gfs is a clear recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Florence, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southeastern and central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters, including the Straits of Florida, are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. This weather system is expected to move west-northwestward across the remainder of the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so and little, if any, development is expected during that time due to strong upper-level winds. However, the current unfavorable upper-level wind pattern is expected to gradually change and become more conducive for a tropical depression to form over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. This disturbance will spread locally heavy rains across much of the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the Keys during the next day or two. See products from your local weather forecast office for more information. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 2, 2018 Author Share Posted September 2, 2018 National Hurricane CenterVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 4m4 minutes ago NHC is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven located near the Central Bahamas and northern Cuba. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast. Here are Key Messages for this advisory and go to http://hurricanes.gov for info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2018 Share Posted September 2, 2018 Thats a bit closer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 3, 2018 Author Share Posted September 3, 2018 The 5:00 AM advisory didn't have Gordon reaching 45mph for another 36 hours ---but here we are 3 1/2 hours later.... SUMMARY OF 830 AM EDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 80.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 The CMC has Florence making landfall and the Euro is on track to hit about were the CMC did.....the GFS turns it north east of Bermuda but I know where I would put my money lol.... Euro has it still offshore but it is moving WNW/NW the last two frames and if there was another frame would be darn near on top of the CMC position...crazy agreement from them actually though they get there different ways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 Going back and looking closer the Euro has it hauling ass west really....if you connect the dots on the last two frames that thing is scooting WNW at best and it would take it slamming on brakes to not come in over NC and moving inland boot.... Run this on loop and it takes a hell of a hard turn to the west just south of Bermuda....is very Isabel like..... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2018090300&fh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 3, 2018 Author Share Posted September 3, 2018 Well, this is a little different. Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 12m12 minutes ago 12z ECMWF forecast track for #Florence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 3, 2018 Share Posted September 3, 2018 Flo hits the 591-594 death ridge at day 7/8 and is forced west/southwest,that could be a N Florida/Ga/SC hit. If the strong death ridge is there it has to go west/southwest it's not turning north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 3, 2018 Author Share Posted September 3, 2018 Talk about polar opposites... crankyweatherguy @crankywxguy 21m21 minutes ago FLO: The Court Jester now heads SW at rapid motion into Florida while the GOOFUS rips out to sea well east of Bermuda. I have my reasons for ignoring models until a specific point in time....I think you now see why. All Thoughts & listed blogs: http://www.stormhamster.com/resource.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Things are heating up for the tropics. Gordon coming in the Gulf, and too early to count out Flo. She coukd head out to sea or be a SE threat. Just have to keep watching. And looks like more threats are coming. The train is hooking up and about ready to leave the station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 With the euro caving last night to a full on recurve I think it's time to start looking at the trailing system that is starting out much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 19 minutes ago, shaggy said: With the euro caving last night to a full on recurve I think it's time to start looking at the trailing system that is starting out much further south. Euro has been caving a lot the last couple of years. It seems like it has lost a step since the upgrade a few years back. I know someone will pop in with the verification stats, but watching tropical systems and winter events, it seems to cave to the GFS more than it used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 33 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Euro has been caving a lot the last couple of years. It seems like it has lost a step since the upgrade a few years back. I know someone will pop in with the verification stats, but watching tropical systems and winter events, it seems to cave to the GFS more than it used to. Euro hasn't been king of late We still have time to see what Florence is going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 1 hour ago, Cold Rain said: Euro has been caving a lot the last couple of years. It seems like it has lost a step since the upgrade a few years back. I know someone will pop in with the verification stats, but watching tropical systems and winter events, it seems to cave to the GFS more than it used to. Agreed, I don't put as much weight into it as I once did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 I'm still thinking that once it hits the death ridge it will be forced west... Even as a Cat. 1 I don't see it punching through the barrier to head north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 ...FLORENCE BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON... ...NO THREAT TO LAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 42.5W ABOUT 1240 MI...2000 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 One thing to note is the slight bobble northward 5am movement: WNW (290 degrees) 11am movement: WNW (295 degrees) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: I'm still thinking that once it hits the death ridge it will be forced west... Even as a Cat. 1 I don't see it punching through the barrier to head north Needed this to stay weak and south through the first several days and instead it has become a hurricane. This one is not likely going to be any sort of problem for the east coast if these trends continue. We needed a weak storm to have it threaten the east coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 6 hours ago, shaggy said: With the euro caving last night to a full on recurve I think it's time to start looking at the trailing system that is starting out much further south. Even starting further south the trailing system at least very early on looks most likely to be a fish storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2018 Share Posted September 5, 2018 GFS came way back west and now misses just a few hundred miles offshore, the Euro also is back with a large hurricane hitting central SC up to Charlotte a la Hugo though not as strong obviously and from a much further north track....still the rainfall in the mts would be very bad I imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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