Solak Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 And so it begins... NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 50m50 minutes ago A Special Tropical Weather Outlook has been issued on the system near the Bahamas. While development is not expected, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over southern Florida and the Bahamas through this weekend. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 Hoping it ends just as calmly. Another season like last year and there wont be any Carribbean Islands to visit. I'd vote for weak systems that toss a little rain up here about once a month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Heading down to Man of War Cay in the Abaco chain of the Bahamas on Wednesday. Forecast isn't looking so good. Hopefully the shower/thunderstorm activity is spotty and winds don't kick up. Also, end of the recent GFS run has a tropical storm making landfall in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 GFS has a TS/Cane move up into the GOM and hit LA at the end of the run......so within a month we went from tracking snow threats to TC threats...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 El trop e cal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 13, 2018 Author Share Posted May 13, 2018 NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 44m44 minutes ago Low pressure moving northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next few days. Regardless of development, rainfall will be enhanced across FL and the NE Gulf Coast https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Yep between this GOM low and the SER sliding east the SE is going to be seeing a lot of deep tropical moisture headed inland over most of the SE..... The 12Z was wet and thats ignoring the Cat 3 hurricane it has at the end of the run lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 Just about all the models have some kind of decently strong tropical low in the GOM/Florida area by day 10. Normally you wouldn't think much this time of the year but the GFS/CMC/Euro/ICON all have the storm day 8-10ish. With the pattern already being wet this could pose a problem if there is a more organized tropical low in that time frame hitting areas already getting 3-6" of rain leading up to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 17, 2018 Share Posted May 17, 2018 On 5/13/2018 at 6:35 PM, downeastnc said: Yep between this GOM low and the SER sliding east the SE is going to be seeing a lot of deep tropical moisture headed inland over most of the SE..... The 12Z was wet and thats ignoring the Cat 3 hurricane it has at the end of the run lol.... A few analogs to wet May.. 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959 1987, 1991x2, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2009, 2010, 2012 A lot of hurricanes off the SE coast a few months later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted May 22, 2018 Share Posted May 22, 2018 Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 730 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad surface low pressure area has formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east of the coast of Belize. This low and an upper-level trough are producing widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula. While environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some gradual subtropical or tropical development is possible later this week while the system moves slowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and much of Florida during the next several days. For more information on the heavy rain threat, please see products issued by your local weather office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 800 AM EDT on Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted May 22, 2018 Share Posted May 22, 2018 Two in two weeks... Sign of things to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 MOB raising some eyebrows over this system. SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...An upper ridge weakens while slowly shifting eastward across the eastern states to the east coast through Friday night as an upper trof advances from the northern/central Plains and begins to move into the eastern states. This transition is of importance as it influences a weak upper trof which initially exists from the Sabine River valley into the northwest Gulf and results in this weak trof becoming somewhat better defined while shifting slowly eastward to the north central Gulf and southern Mississippi River valley. The ramifications of the position of this upper trof will be to play a big role in the movement of a surface low expected to develop over the south central or southeast Gulf, and favor a general northward movement of this potential feature. Development of the surface low looks probable, so the big questions are when and where the system develops. As noted earlier the upper trof will likely favor a northward movement with this system, but depending on where it develops (south central or southeast Gulf), this will determine if the surface low moves towards the north central or the northeast Gulf. There are some environmental limitations on this potential system, such as somewhat drier air noted in the water vapor loop over the Gulf, but the configuration of the surface low will likely be tropical (warm-core). The National Hurricane Center currently has a 40% chance for tropical cyclone development over the eastern or central Gulf during the period, and will continue to monitor this as closely as possible. While there are uncertainties with timing and movement of the anticipated surface low, confidence is increasing for very high pops as well as for potential flooding threats. Following upon guidance and WPC QPF amounts, have issued a Flood Threat graphic which will begin from late Thursday and continue through late Sunday (the LONG TERM period). Have gone with a Significant Threat Area generally south of Highway 84 where areas of flash flooding will be possible and an Elevated Threat Area further to the north where isolated to areas of flash flooding will be possible. Heavy surf is likely along with a moderate risk of rip currents through Friday then likely becoming high by Friday night. At least minor coastal flooding could begin as early as late Thursday, with the potential for coastal flooding impacts increasing through Friday night. /29 LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...The forecast depends entirely on the timing and movement of the anticipated Gulf system. Should this system materialize as anticipated, a movement to the north central or northeast Gulf coast looks most likely based on the influence of the upper trof as alluded to in the SHORT TERM section. A plausible solution (from a consensus of guidance) has the system moving to the north central/northeast Gulf coast in the Saturday into Sunday night timeframe. As mentioned earlier, the National Hurricane Center has a 40% chance for tropical cyclone development with this system and will closely monitor. It is too early to be able to assess potential wind impacts, but confidence has increased for flooding potential and a Significant to Elevated Threat of flooding follows through at least Sunday. In addition, the pattern supports likely to categorical pops through most of the period. A high risk of rip currents and heavy surf is likely through at least the weekend along with coastal flooding impacts. May also need to assess the potential for severe (tornadic) storm development, but unable to delve into any specifics right now as this will depend heavily on the timing/movement of the system. /29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 90L sure looks like its going to be the first named storm of the year.....that combined with the Bermuda High could turn the hose on much of the SE over the next 7-10 days. Locally the river here is only a few feet from flood stage given the rainy pattern we have already been in..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 Ukie and the GFS are more east with the guidance,bringing a 997-1000 low up towards the big bend of Florida.Euro is more west bring it into New Orleans area.Both show some sort of stall though once inland so heavy rain could hit somewhere. *6z GFS did shift west though close to Mobile,could be a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 Found an IR loop that updates every five minutes... Interesting note is that the center appears to be moving ENE https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-abi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 6, 2018 Author Share Posted July 6, 2018 Closer to home... NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 33s34 seconds ago A tropical depression is likely to form and stall or meander near the coast of North Carolina through the weekend. Interests along the Carolina coast should monitor the progress of this system. More info available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Going to the outer banks the week after next. The weather lover in me says bring on the storms, but the rest/relaxation side says keep them away. Edit: Looking at the models it looks like storms (if they develop) should be pushed westward out-to-sea. But id we got some gulf development that could be directed toward us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 2 hours ago, Solak said: Closer to home... NHC Atlantic OpsVerified account @NHC_Atlantic 33s34 seconds ago A tropical depression is likely to form and stall or meander near the coast of North Carolina through the weekend. Interests along the Carolina coast should monitor the progress of this system. More info available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 … Downeastnc and our parents will be at Bath on the river all next week. Me and my 2 yr old will join them beginning if the week and then when my wife gets done with work on Tuesday she comes and gets me and we go to kitty hawk through Friday. 96L is a huge fly in the ointment. Gfs is bullish and the rest meh on development. Regardless with a low off the coast rip currents will keep us out of the ocean for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Wouldnt be surprised to see advisories at 5pm for a TD off the NC coast. The broad low level circulation has tightened up all day and the current increase in storms is close to the center. Totally not digging the "no floater available" issue at the moment..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 6, 2018 Author Share Posted July 6, 2018 Gonna spin the weekend away offshore... Brad PanovichVerified account @wxbrad 51s51 seconds ago Tropical Depression #3 has formed and will becomes a #Chris this weekend and linger for the next 5 days. #ncwx #scwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 There is a trough of tropical entities off the SE coast. If you watch one might as well watch the other two. Gom/FL FL to SC. SC to NE eventually but still around Bermuda. There is still a very board anticlyclone aloft. Seen that tonight with the East coast seabreeze. Some kind off broad scale trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted July 6, 2018 Share Posted July 6, 2018 Rough surf and rip currents either way you look at it. Glad we vacationed this past week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 7, 2018 Share Posted July 7, 2018 We went ahead and canceled our kitty hawk trip. No way I'm going in the water with the rip current risks and it's not worth the money if we can't get in the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted July 8, 2018 Share Posted July 8, 2018 I'm in Duck right now on the first night of a week vacay. Wanted to cancel but not refundable unfortunately. No rain yet but windy as all get out. Hope this thing spins away in a few days so we see at least a couple of good days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 8, 2018 Share Posted July 8, 2018 It's really not that bad, i'm in Wilmington and barely had any wind or rain. There are plenty of visitors walking on the beaches and swimming. models like this one are trolling my emotions though...pretty sure it is not going to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 8, 2018 Share Posted July 8, 2018 15 hours ago, SN_Lover said: It's really not that bad, i'm in Wilmington and barely had any wind or rain. There are plenty of visitors walking on the beaches and swimming. models like this one are trolling my emotions though...pretty sure it is not going to verify. Yeah, that is pretty much in dream land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted July 8, 2018 Share Posted July 8, 2018 Current "Sea~State" on the Beaches.. Rip current advisories are up.. Careful, IF you plan on coming down in the next few Days, (Especially OBX beaches) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted July 8, 2018 Share Posted July 8, 2018 15 hours ago, SN_Lover said: It's really not that bad, i'm in Wilmington and barely had any wind or rain. There are plenty of visitors walking on the beaches and swimming. models like this one are trolling my emotions though...pretty sure it is not going to verify. WUT? You musta posted before the "White-out" rain(s) & Storms yesterday afternoon... 15 hours ago, SN_Lover said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 8, 2018 Share Posted July 8, 2018 37 minutes ago, SENC said: WUT? You musta posted before the "White-out" rain(s) & Storms yesterday afternoon... I'm near your area and only way those showers were close to whiteout were if you were driving going 70mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 26, 2018 Share Posted August 26, 2018 Models finally starting to hint at some development down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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