Juliancolton Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 4 hours ago, weatherwiz said: What I said was I will not just pull over if I'm doing 70-75+ (especially when speed limit is only 55) b/c the person behind me wants to do 80...90 mph. This logic always boggled my mind. Who decided that your level of breaking the speed limit is acceptable, but any further is so egregious as to require citizen policing? If you're doing 20 over, and knowingly cause even worse speeders to try dangerous maneuvers to get around you, you've really surrendered all moral high ground... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Got some EML air lurking nearby on Tuesday. Worth watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Big, big severe wx outbreak tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Big, big severe wx outbreak tomorrow Nice glad to see you deleted that Meh response to Ryan you posted last night. W and CCT under the gun 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice glad to see you deleted that Meh response to Ryan you posted last night. W and CCT under the gun Lol that’s funny. With the EML in place especially southern areas watch for some elevated stuff making it to the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: Lol that’s funny. With the EML in place especially southern areas watch for some elevated stuff making it to the coast. Certainly does look like the threat extends to the south coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Certainly does look like the threat extends to the south coast. Seems timing might be an issue and of course we deal with our marine air friend but we will have to see what tomorrow brings, NAM can be severe happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Seems timing might be an issue and of course we deal with our marine air friend but we will have to see what tomorrow brings, NAM can be severe happy. As always, the usual caveats apply. Seems like our best severe events are with W or WNW flow. I don't expect anything crazy around here with this but a few boomers may be in the offering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 33 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Lol that’s funny. With the EML in place especially southern areas watch for some elevated stuff making it to the coast. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 What's impressive this morning is that the EML looks even more legit. NAM and GFS close to 8c/km with mid level lapse rates. The SREF also is bumping up the CAPE - especially over CT - and now has some pretty impressive sig tor probabilities showing up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 May be one of those days when Danbury up through Litchfield gets baseballs while the marine influence tamps things down on the immediate coast. Still, impressive to see LRs greater than 8 C/km. When was the last time we saw that? 6/11? As an aside, looking at the scale above, I see it maxes out at 12 C/km. I didn't know that was even possible. I thought parcels rising dry adiabatically (sic?) was closer to 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Most important factor in tomorrow's setup: is Wiz working a baseball game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoth said: May be one of those days when Danbury up through Litchfield gets baseballs while the marine influence tamps things down on the immediate coast. Still, impressive to see LRs greater than 8 C/km. When was the last time we saw that? 6/11? As an aside, looking at the scale above, I see it maxes out at 12 C/km. I didn't know that was even possible. I thought parcels rising dry adiabatically (sic?) was closer to 10. The last time was maybe 7/15/95? Lapse rates 6/1/11 were only around 7.5 I believe. Maybe one of the events in 2002 approached 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 HREF is going pretty nuts tomorrow across the northeast, albeit convection from today is certainly a factor. Certainly don't see lapse rates that close to dry adiabatic this far east very often at all, and when they are juxtaposed with rather strong shear -> higher end severe possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 What a day shaping up for pike south tomorrow. Many years have passed since we’ve had such a high end setup like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 SPC discussion raises possibility of derecho and upping to moderate risk in the MA today. Precursor of things to come tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 So is Wiz heading west tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 21 minutes ago, yoda said: So is Wiz heading west tomorrow morning? I will be in the Danbury area b/c I'm doing my charter broadcast but as far as going chasing doubt it. I'm hanging out with someone tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 In enhanced risk now for tomorrow that was fast!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 160+ ULJ streak right along the US/Canadien border too...ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 If the directional shear component was better, this could have been a contender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 There’s a big Tor potential. Could be an infamous day in our SNE annals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Not expecting much in my area. Enjoy it where it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a big Tor potential. Could be an infamous day in our SNE annals I don't see it. Maybe from a storm interaction or some locally backed winds for whatever reason. The 6z NAM was concerning with the tor potential but all the other models veer the low level winds after the morning. You're left with straight hodographs. Any tornado potential is definitely very isolated. If something changes - like a mesolow or something that can serve to back low level winds like the 6z NAM had then I'll be more interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: I don't see it. Maybe from a storm interaction or some locally backed winds for whatever reason. The 6z NAM was concerning with the tor potential but all the other models veer the low level winds after the morning. You're left with straight hodographs. Any tornado potential is definitely very isolated. If something changes - like a mesolow or something that can serve to back low level winds like the 6z NAM had then I'll be more interested. The purely unidirectional component aloft and why flow is aligned with the front screams linear storm mode. Maybe some discrete ahead of it...can't rule out winds staying a bit backed in the Valley but I think we'll see multiple lines of storms. However...the NAM/GFS do increase the LLJ like right over SNE late afternoon so if somehow the sfc winds are more SW or S it could get a tad interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 One worry is the steepest lapse rates move out too quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: One worry is the steepest lapse rates move out too quick Euro with a 7/10 split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro with a 7/10 split I feel like this is our biggest killer in these setups...its not that the EML plume weakens or mixes it's that the plume of best EML air moves out to sea before anything can happen with it. Tough to gauge...this is something that isn't modeled extremely well. I did notice though that between the 9z SREF and 15z SREF it appeared the plume was moving east a bit quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Euro with a 7/10 split I wouldn't worry about a global models QPF output since they can't explicitly resolve storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I wouldn't worry about a global models QPF output since they can't explicitly resolve storms. I was actually looking at RH fields and 5H temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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