General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

[ct_yankee]

Kinda surprised SPC actually put out an MD for our area, usually they ignore these low but definitely not zero risk situations. LOL 5% watch probability:

Areas affected...Portions of NJ into Long Island and southern
   Connecticut

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 252138Z - 252345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasionally weakly rotating storms are expected over the
   next few hours. Overall severe threat is very low.

   DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, currently anchored along a warm
   front, have occasionally showed transient, weak low to mid-level
   rotation across portions of central/eastern New Jersey into the NYC
   area and far southern Connecticut. Though lapse rates are quite poor
   throughout the troposphere (i.e 5-5.5 C/km), sfc-850 mb moisture is
   quite deep, contributing to MLCAPE of up to 1000 J/kg along/south of
   the front. While effective bulk shear values are rather modest given
   the marginally unstable atmosphere (30-40 knots across the
   discussion area), favorable low-level directional shear remains in
   place, with effective SRH values exceeding 250 m2/s2 over Long
   Island, with nearly 350 m2/s2 0-3km SRH noted by recent KOKX WSR-88D
   VWP data. Low-level flow is slightly more veered closer to PHL, with
   latest KDIX VWP data suggesting both 0-3km and 0-1km SRH exceeding
   150 m2/s2. 

   The favorable low-level shear, combined with the moist/marginally
   buoyant airmass, may promote semi-discrete storms in the area to
   continue weakly rotating on an occasional basis, particularly across
   portions of Long Island and southern Connnecticut, where storms may
   more favorably traverse the warm front and ingest available
   low-level streamwise vorticity. Still, given the marginally buoyant
   airmass and expected lackluster potential for stronger rotation, the
   severe threat appears quite low.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/25/2018

 

 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, ct_yankee said:

Kinda surprised SPC actually put out an MD out for our area, usually they ignore these low but definitely not zero risk situations. LOL 5% watch probability:

Areas affected...Portions of NJ into Long Island and southern
   Connecticut

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 252138Z - 252345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasionally weakly rotating storms are expected over the
   next few hours. Overall severe threat is very low.

   DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, currently anchored along a warm
   front, have occasionally showed transient, weak low to mid-level
   rotation across portions of central/eastern New Jersey into the NYC
   area and far southern Connecticut. Though lapse rates are quite poor
   throughout the troposphere (i.e 5-5.5 C/km), sfc-850 mb moisture is
   quite deep, contributing to MLCAPE of up to 1000 J/kg along/south of
   the front. While effective bulk shear values are rather modest given
   the marginally unstable atmosphere (30-40 knots across the
   discussion area), favorable low-level directional shear remains in
   place, with effective SRH values exceeding 250 m2/s2 over Long
   Island, with nearly 350 m2/s2 0-3km SRH noted by recent KOKX WSR-88D
   VWP data. Low-level flow is slightly more veered closer to PHL, with
   latest KDIX VWP data suggesting both 0-3km and 0-1km SRH exceeding
   150 m2/s2. 

   The favorable low-level shear, combined with the moist/marginally
   buoyant airmass, may promote semi-discrete storms in the area to
   continue weakly rotating on an occasional basis, particularly across
   portions of Long Island and southern Connnecticut, where storms may
   more favorably traverse the warm front and ingest available
   low-level streamwise vorticity. Still, given the marginally buoyant
   airmass and expected lackluster potential for stronger rotation, the
   severe threat appears quite low.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/25/2018

 

 

Look at those cells over Long Island. 

[ct_yankee]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Look at those cells over Long Island. 

Yeah, those are a bit more interesting than the rest, semi-discrete and definitely supercellular looking... Heading this way, too.

[OceanStWx]

8 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Dews surging at the south coast. 

Impressive that dews jumped 20 degrees at HVN in 10 hours

[weatherwiz]

Going to make the hike to NH today!!! Hopefully I can leave Danbury by 1:00 the latest. Or maybe southern VT

[weatherwiz]

I wish OKX had did an 18z launch too 

[dryslot]

So there saying there's a chance.

[OceanStWx]

33 minutes ago, dryslot said:

So there saying there's a chance.

Their color scheme is telling. Farther south the MCD graphic is blue. This one is purple, meaning SPC clearly is concerned about tornado potential in this region.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Their color scheme is telling. Farther south the MCD graphic is blue. This one is purple, meaning SPC clearly is concerned about tornado potential in this region.

That's really interesting. Never knew that. So what is the difference between blue and red? 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

That's really interesting. Never knew that. So what is the difference between blue and red? 

Red is a strong preference for tornado watch.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Their color scheme is telling. Farther south the MCD graphic is blue. This one is purple, meaning SPC clearly is concerned about tornado potential in this region.

Yup saw that, We have had some destabilization with the sun being in and out all afternoon, See the temps/dews have increased as well as the winds.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Red is a strong preference for tornado watch.

gotcha...that's what I had thought. 

I like how they do that. 

I am quite surprised at the degree of sun down this way. I just wish we were closer to the better support. 

[ineedsnow]

83/73 ugh nastyyyy

[yoda]

So did Wiz head to NH or no?  Still no warnings up there or watch yet

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

So did Wiz head to NH or no?  Still no warnings up there or watch yet

Nah. By the time I was able to go it was like 2:30-3:00. Might not be in a bad spot in Danbury for some type of action. Stronger instability here but removed from better support

[weatherwiz]

I don’t think we’ll see a watch today. Think it would have already haplened

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don’t think we’ll see a watch today. Think it would have already haplened

Lol we just got a surprise watch down here for some reason

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Lol we just got a surprise watch down here for some reason

 

just saw that. The probs are like extremely low too. Well maybe we will get a watch farther north

[ct_yankee]

Based on radar trends, I'm doubtful we'll see a watch - actually, make that I'm almost certain we won't. I'm not seeing anything much that impresses, and the trend this late in the day can only go downward with loss of insolation... This time of year, if it hasn't happened by 6pm, it's not happening.

[bobbutts]

Does slight risk mean the same thing it always did?  This seems like a real dud compared to others.

[ct_yankee]

29 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Does slight risk mean the same thing it always did?  This seems like a real dud compared to others.

This was always an iffy setup, that could have gone either way. The potential was there, but... The lack of a watch reflects the SPC's understanding that the day would probably underperform. I would expect a downgrade of the Slight with the next outlook issued.

[ineedsnow]

Some rotation in Litchfield  county

[HoarfrostHubb]

A nice line rolling in through this area.

[tavwtby]

Serious lightening show going on right now, winds really picked up too... btw, so glad the site is back!! Didn't know what I was going to do this winter..

[wxeyeNH]

First really good torrential soaking in many months.  Some lightning and thunder  .80" in past half an hour.  After the 1.37" yesterday finally have some water in my pond.  Last water went dry in early July.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Line seems to be sh*ttng the bed west of here as is usually the case by this point in the evening.  At least we'll get more rain to keep everything damp and moldy.  

[tavwtby]

Phone is blowing up with alerts now... was the rotation radar indicated or someone report it?

[CT Valley Snowman]

4 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

Phone is blowing up with alerts now... was the rotation radar indicated or someone report it?

Alerts are for flash flooding.  No longer severe warned.

[tavwtby]

Yeah just saw that... just started pouring as I write...got a good 3" yesterday, so ground can't take much more, nothing like down the coast yesterday tho, damn!!

[#NoPoles]

Get well soon, Ginxy! Thinking of you!