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weatherwiz

General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

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28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Today should about do it for severe season. See ya next May. 

SPC:
 

   On Day 4 (Friday 9-21) however, an initial upper trough is forecast
   to be advancing quickly eastward across the Great Lakes and later
   the Northeast U.S., and adjacent eastern Canada.  This trough will
   be accompanied by a seasonably strong cold front, progged to shift
   across the Northeast and Ohio Valley and shift off the New England
   coast by the beginning of Day 5.  While instability along the length
   of the front -- particularly across New England -- will likely
   remain limited, strong westerly/west-southwesterly flow through a
   deep tropospheric layer may support potential for gusty/damaging
   winds, with a frontal line of convection.  Thus, a severe risk area
   is being included Day 4, from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley
   northeastward into New England.

 

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On 9/22/2018 at 1:12 PM, weatherwiz said:

I couldn't believe we were in a D3 slight for Friday...did not see any potential at all this far east.

With that said...Wednesday looks intriguing 

This is going to be the day 4 slight that works out, after they chucked for Friday.

I was a little (lot?) :drunk: at a rehearsal dinner/welcome party in PSM but I don't remember any severe there.

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32 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

This is going to be the day 4 slight that works out, after they chucked for Friday.

I was a little (lot?) :drunk: at a rehearsal dinner/welcome party in PSM but I don't remember any severe there.

Was surprised  Wednesday is already a slight risk

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1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Was surprised  Wednesday is already a slight risk

Wind fields are actually really impressive. 50 knots below 1 km for a good chunk of New England north of the Pike. Turning isn't great, but there is so much speed shear that helicity is actually fairly high 0-3 km. So classic high shear/low CAPE look. 

Big if is the dewpoint forecast. Models want to surge 70s up into NH, which helps produce a little CAPE anyway. If that busts it could just be a strong cold front.

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11 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

This is going to be the day 4 slight that works out, after they chucked for Friday.

I was a little (lot?) :drunk: at a rehearsal dinner/welcome party in PSM but I don't remember any severe there.

I was clueless on Friday. I also thought we were in the divergent portion of the ULJ which was quite strong. 

Wednesday isn't ideal but the potential is certainly there. I do think the main forcing could lag just slightly but we'll see

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can we get any big uns in SNE?

Your best bet may be today, because on Wednesday the best overlap of parameters is north and west.

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3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Your best bet may be today, because on Wednesday the best overlap of parameters is north and west.

This afternoon looks quite interesting across CT. CAMS get some low-topped action going 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are wedged hard 

HRRR blows one right through Danbury. Hopefully a TOR rips across the lawn of the science building 

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

HRRR blows one right through Danbury. Hopefully a TOR rips across the lawn of the science building 

I wouldn't hold my breath....I have a feeling anything that occurs will be very underwhelming

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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

HRRR blows one right through Danbury. Hopefully a TOR rips across the lawn of the science building 

Respect the Quebec HP and NE flow wedge. Models always rush warm fronts . That being said.. let’s hope they’re right and we do tear a few across the state.

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gee - too bad this warm front wasn't 6 hours further along ... we'd -a had an EOF fest out there prolly -

Already impressive turn around... It was 44 and spittin when I left my driveway this morning ... brrr.  Only thing missing was fireplace aroma...   But, it's managed to erode its way up to 60 despite the overruning mank.  

By the way, is/are there any decent web sources for estimated rainfall other than NWS Boston ?  

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

gee - too bad this warm front wasn't 6 hours further along ... we'd -a had an EOF fest out there prolly -

Already impressive turn around... It was 44 and spittin when I left my driveway this morning ... brrr.  Only thing missing was fireplace aroma...   But, it's managed to erode its way up to 60 despite the overruning mank.  

By the way, is/are there any decent web sources for estimated rainfall other than NWS Boston ?  

TT..  I use this site.  I zoom in.  You can set date ranges  etc.   https://water.weather.gov/precip/

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