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General Severe Weather Discussion 2018


weatherwiz
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I was never truly intrigued by this setup but some of the overnight guidance has gathered my attention. The forcing looks alot better to me than it had (something we lacked heavily last week). I do think that LFC’s are kinda high though but perhaps the benefit of forcing will help parcels accelerate from the LCL to the LFC and we can make a few things happen. 

I also think we could see a FF threat develop across SW CT

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6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Interesting set-up today. Wonder if western CT can get in on something good.  Currently chilly up here in southern NH, doubt we get anything this far north.

You mean its not HHH to the Canadian border? Been cold rain/showers the last day or so and that looks to continue up here.

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1512.html

 Mesoscale Discussion 1512
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0210 PM CDT Tue Oct 02 2018

   Areas affected...Northern New Jersey...Southeast New York...Southern
   New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021910Z - 022115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A wind damage threat and marginal tornado threat will be
   possible this afternoon from northern New Jersey northeastward into
   southern New England. Weather watch issuance can not be ruled out
   across the region.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a warm front located
   from southeast New York extending eastward across Connecticut.
   Convection is developing near the boundary in southeast New York
   along the leading edge of a band of large-scale ascent evident on
   water vapor imagery. Ahead of the convection, surface dewpoints in
   the New York Vicinity and in far southern New England are generally
   in the mid to upper 60s F which is contributing to the development
   of weak instability. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs at Boston
   and New York City have moderate to strong deep-layer shear with 0-3
   km storm relative helicity around 250 m2/s2. This may be enough for
   a marginal tornado threat with cells that interact with the warm
   front. Wind damage will also be possible but the threat should
   remain isolated due to the weak instability.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 10/02/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   41577202 41127296 40347445 40547504 40957514 41397476
               41947349 42567242 42177174 41577202 
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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Sure was. Plus nROT above 1.5...yikes

Yep, very impressive cell. Hook wrapped all the way round, forming a doughnut-hole BWER for at least one scan. Still a strong storm, which might cycle again, but it's out in the Sound now, and it's getting dark...

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So... That supercell yesterday produced something like 4 tornadoes from just over the NY state line on out to Long Island, including one that tracked from New Canaan to Norwalk... And nobody comments?

Yeah, I get it that some people just want to move on to winter, but damn... I expected a little more excitement.

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