TalcottWx Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It’s more than that. CAPE has been there, but there has been lots of ridging or subsidence east of ORH. When heights rise, That is a killer. Great for the beaches but not lawns. It’s been better lately. A bit of splitting hairs though. That ridging and subsidence is sort of what I mean in regards to wind direction. That's what put them in dry spot in first place. Sort of same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 20 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: A bit of splitting hairs though. That ridging and subsidence is sort of what I mean in regards to wind direction. That's what put them in dry spot in first place. Sort of same thing Well it’s not really wind direction though. At least for surface. Anyways looks like wet weather enroute starting Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well it’s not really wind direction though. At least for surface. Anyways looks like wet weather enroute starting Saturday. I refer back to some of Tip's long posts about the 'marine infested layer' that seems to manifest itself on the south and southwest wind directions. Often resulting in a easily distinguished evaporation of cu growth in our severe events. I'm still hoping we see an elevated event with second by second lightning at some point this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I refer back to some of Tip's long posts about the 'marine infested layer' that seems to manifest itself on the south and southwest wind directions. Often resulting in a easily distinguished evaporation of cu growth in our severe events. I'm still hoping we see an elevated event with second by second lightning at some point this winter. But 2000J isn’t marine layer. We’ve had nasty heights too. That’s been a trend last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: But 2000J isn’t marine layer. We’ve had nasty heights too. That’s been a trend last few years. Doesn't the position of the ridge lend itself to having a surface direction somewhat off the water no matter what with a situation like that? Even if winds are weak it will be onshore. If you get stiff winds, almost always S or SW with a big ridge that boasts solid CAPE? Of course it differs with the WAR location. You can have the CAPE but it seems like there is definitely some ultra small scale aspect of this that inhibits thunderstorm/cu growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 2 hours ago, sbos_wx said: Doesn't the position of the ridge lend itself to having a surface direction somewhat off the water no matter what with a situation like that? Even if winds are weak it will be onshore. If you get stiff winds, almost always S or SW with a big ridge that boasts solid CAPE? Of course it differs with the WAR location. You can have the CAPE but it seems like there is definitely some ultra small scale aspect of this that inhibits thunderstorm/cu growth We’ve had plenty of days with SW winds and storms. Especially this time of year. But when you move into an environment that is torched aloft, subsidence instead of lift, you kill anything moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 10, 2018 Author Share Posted August 10, 2018 4 hours ago, sbos_wx said: Doesn't the position of the ridge lend itself to having a surface direction somewhat off the water no matter what with a situation like that? Even if winds are weak it will be onshore. If you get stiff winds, almost always S or SW with a big ridge that boasts solid CAPE? Of course it differs with the WAR location. You can have the CAPE but it seems like there is definitely some ultra small scale aspect of this that inhibits thunderstorm/cu growth This can sort of go in hand with what Scott is saying but alot of the problem too is upper-level support...or in this case lack of. With the higher heights out that way it's unlikely you'll get into the better upper support...or it will be tough for the upper-level support to progress east. IMO, the marine layer gets used a little bit too loosely...especially this time of year. When it comes to convection I think upper-level support plays a substantial role in the evolution and degree of sustainability. This is what I am doing for my senior research...wich I have only scrapped the surface at starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted August 10, 2018 Share Posted August 10, 2018 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: This can sort of go in hand with what Scott is saying but alot of the problem too is upper-level support...or in this case lack of. With the higher heights out that way it's unlikely you'll get into the better upper support...or it will be tough for the upper-level support to progress east. IMO, the marine layer gets used a little bit too loosely...especially this time of year. When it comes to convection I think upper-level support plays a substantial role in the evolution and degree of sustainability. This is what I am doing for my senior research...wich I have only scrapped the surface at starting Severe season is fading...you can attack your research soon while us pros concentrate on winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 10, 2018 Share Posted August 10, 2018 18 hours ago, CoastalWx said: But 2000J isn’t marine layer. We’ve had nasty heights too. That’s been a trend last few years. I'm not really part of this conversation ... .so, taken with a grain' - But 2000 as a number ... doesn't really determine much - I figure you know this ... but many don't. If there is 3000 J over the Capital District down throughout White Plains and NYC and so forth, but because the air mass may be passing from ACY -CON as a mean trajectory ... that 3000 J may only be 2000 J in that region and points SE. Now ... if the threshold(s) for the spectrum of convection, ranging from ... just CU to TCU to CB to severe wielding CBs, requires 2000 ...2500 ... 3000 ...3000+ etc... that's how that contamination from the Shelf water pass-over over of the air mass can throw a mitigation into the works. He mentioned my name in deference to taint ... I'm just describing that picture a bit here - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 10, 2018 Author Share Posted August 10, 2018 there is some room for a strong or severe thunderstorm overnight and through tomorrow afternoon right around where the warm front gets...might stay offshore but some models bring it into southern CT. Something to watch b/c instability will be there just south of the front with some decent shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 10, 2018 Share Posted August 10, 2018 6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not really part of this conversation ... .so, taken with a grain' - But 2000 as a number ... doesn't really determine much - I figure you know this ... but many don't. If there is 3000 J over the Capital District down throughout White Plains and NYC and so forth, but because the air mass may be passing from ACY -CON as a mean trajectory ... that 3000 J may only be 2000 J in that region and points SE. Now ... if the threshold(s) for the spectrum of convection, ranging from ... just CU to TCU to CB to severe wielding CBs, requires 2000 ...2500 ... 3000 ...3000+ etc... that's how that contamination from the Shelf water pass-over over of the air mass can throw a mitigation into the works. He mentioned my name in deference to taint ... I'm just describing that picture a bit here - Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted August 10, 2018 Share Posted August 10, 2018 Here in NYC for a little family vaca. Local forecast here sounds pretty awful with a mention of tornadoes in the afd for tomorrow. Whatever happens, kind of a bummer for my girls' first time in the city.Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 Warm front cutting the region tomorrow with soup air ... even a splash of sun here and there. Low LCLs. Watch that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Warm front cutting the region tomorrow with soup air ... even a splash of sun here and there. Low LCLs. Watch that Decent energy diving into the MA. Scattered severe and training type storms seem possible with the diffluent flow, though I suspect the best goes up through the HV, as per usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoth said: Decent energy diving into the MA. Scattered severe and training type storms seem possible with the diffluent flow, though I suspect the best goes up through the HV, as per usual. Mm, predicated on the assumption that the sun can penetrate through and heat at least some... this is worse than an April back-door pounding my god this schit is perniciously fisted in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 Sun is out warming up quick hoping for something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm, predicated on the assumption that the sun can penetrate through and heat at least some... this is worse than an April back-door pounding my god this schit is perniciously fisted in Suns been out much of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 12, 2018 Share Posted August 12, 2018 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Suns been out much of the day Looks like storms coming in from the east the next couple hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 A few interesting cells south of LI. Definitely an isolated spout/spinner risk near the coast today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 13, 2018 Author Share Posted August 13, 2018 Watch for several hailers tomorrow. Maybe even a few cells producing severe hail (1-1.50''). Sort of shocked we aren't in at least a marginal. But I think tomorrow is a bit active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 14 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Watch for several hailers tomorrow. Maybe even a few cells producing severe hail (1-1.50''). Sort of shocked we aren't in at least a marginal. But I think tomorrow is a bit active What are the freezing altitudes? The general synopsis: I tend to think not with heights so high... Doesn't mean you can't ... but, sustaining updraft through a sub-freezing pressure level is how you get hail ... with heights so high it's hard to imagine the glaciation depths being that massive. As this trough opens up, it's nadir is all of 582 dm, and filling as it goes, not falling. I've been hammering this but it's an odd atmospheric rarity to sustain cut-off features at mid and upper levels with heights that high to begin with - both a plausible atonement to the state of everything but ... and a course for a digression no one apparently wants to admit or have. Excluding that being a ominous sign for a moment ... this looks like green tinted rain curtains more than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 14, 2018 Author Share Posted August 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: What are the freezing altitudes? The general synopsis: I tend to think not with heights so high... Doesn't mean you can't ... but, sustaining updraft through a sub-freezing pressure level is how you get hail ... with heights so high it's hard to imagine the glaciation depths being that massive. As this trough opens up, it's nadir is all of 582 dm, and filling as it goes, not falling. I've been hammering this but it's an odd atmospheric rarity to sustain cut-off features at mid and upper levels with heights that high to begin with - both a plausible atonement to the state of everything but ... and a course for a digression no one apparently wants to admit or have. Excluding that being a ominous sign for a moment ... this looks like green tinted rain curtains more than anything else. Freezing levels are right around 10,500' or so today with the (weakening) cold pool moving pretty much overhead. We do have some modest 0-6km shear too. I was thinking we could see something similar to that of western PA yesterday where they had a few 1'' hail reports. Some decent breaks of sun (at least in Danbury) so I think we should generate enough instability. Already 300-500 J of hail CAPE per mesoanalysis and we should end up with between 1000-1500 J of MLCape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Freezing levels are right around 10,500' or so today with the (weakening) cold pool moving pretty much overhead. We do have some modest 0-6km shear too. I was thinking we could see something similar to that of western PA yesterday where they had a few 1'' hail reports. Some decent breaks of sun (at least in Danbury) so I think we should generate enough instability. Already 300-500 J of hail CAPE per mesoanalysis and we should end up with between 1000-1500 J of MLCape. Great call on the hail Wiz https://twitter.com/bobmaxon/status/1029382823508148225 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 14, 2018 Author Share Posted August 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Great call on the hail Wiz https://twitter.com/bobmaxon/status/1029382823508148225 wow didn't realize things were popping up already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 14, 2018 Author Share Posted August 14, 2018 NAM is very interesting for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Great call on the hail Wiz https://twitter.com/bobmaxon/status/1029382823508148225 Not to be the recognition/accolade police but he said, "...Severe hailers" Pea sized hail ? ...doesn't cut it. I still don't see severe hail as a primary event threat today... This is a wind and deluge issues, although honestly I'm a bit surprised that continuous lightning took place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to be the recognition/accolade police but he said, "...Severe hailers" Pea sized hail ? ...doesn't cut it. I still don't see severe hail as a primary event threat today... This is a wind and deluge issues, although honestly I'm a bit surprised that continuous lightning took place. Well you said no hail at all so yea great call Wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 I'd really love to get one of these storms. Looks like the Providence to Boston force field is fully operational right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 If one looked at the radar, or vis sat, you'd think not much for eastern portions. But if you look at some of the mesoanalysis and upper level stuff, certainly looks like there will be heavy rain even in east this evening. Better forcing should move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 3 hours ago, weatherwiz said: NAM is very interesting for Friday. Indeed.. KBOS sounding at 00z SAT is nice... but ML Lapse Rates of 5.5 C/KM and 0-6km shear of 25-30 kts may temper what looks to be a decent threat for severe KBAF at 18z FRI looks really nice, but 25 kts shear is meh and 0-1km SRH is around 80 m2/s2... KORH at 00z SAT also looks nice, but 25 kts 0-6km shear and just above 5.0 C/KM ML Lapse rates make it meh Still, if models can pick up some more shear, could be a nice chase day for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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