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General Severe Weather Discussion 2018


weatherwiz
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9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I'm pretty meh for tomorrow around here. Looks pretty blah with very weak wind fields. Looks a lot better for Ekster and Legro. 

I'm thinking the extreme western part of the state may be able to get in on some action although hi-res stuff weakens things rather quickly. I'll be in Danbury tomorrow so hopefully something happens. Seems like they have had about 20 thunderstorms this summer.

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33 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I'm pretty meh for tomorrow around here. Looks pretty blah with very weak wind fields. Looks a lot better for Ekster and Legro. 

Shear FTL down south. 

It's even pretty meh up here (effective shear around 25-30 kts). But I'm betting we end up closer to 35 and get some organization up here.

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27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Shear FTL down south. 

It's even pretty meh up here (effective shear around 25-30 kts). But I'm betting we end up closer to 35 and get some organization up here.

The 12km NAM has somewhat better low level shear which was interesting but it seems like it's on its own with a funky looking 850hpa jet. 

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2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The 12km NAM has somewhat better low level shear which was interesting but it seems like it's on its own with a funky looking 850hpa jet. 

that model seems to want to overdo the LLJ at times...or quite a few times. Also sometimes it seems like it goes a bit more aggressive with 700-500 lapse rates 

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What algorithm does bufkit use for it's precipitation generation? I was looking at IXD (Olathe, KS) and NAM bufkit was showing heavy rain like 10:00 PM and completely saturated profile. Looks to me like the best chance for anything was during the morning and then the front moves through and didn't see much for lift overnight. NWS though did have 10% chance for overnight but bufkit was going aggressive. MOS too did have some decent probs I guess. I haven't really used MOS heavily enough to know how good it is with those precip/thunder outputs. 

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4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

8 yards lolol....the width of a decent size house....how does that even count lol?

I mean I can see how they would just measure the flattened corn, and it's hard to tell how large the outer circulation was without damage, but yeah maybe give it something a little longer than a typical Brady first down scramble.

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30 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Also kudos to the HRRR for nailing the bow echo that blew through The County this morning.

good call on the shear too for up your way...30-40 knots of bulk shear and 0-6km shear. Looks good up your way for some nasty stuff. May even have to watch any discrete storms too.

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Not as impressed down this way anymore. I think we'll see some storms but a bit of dry air above 850 and just meh wind fields. Ample CAPE though and some inverted-v looks...maybe we can muster up a few stronger storms. we'll see.

Tomorrow night NAM NEST has a decent line move through here though 

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what are the soundings like ?

just the physical observation (satellite) and sfc obs together give the appearance of CAP/CIN'ed shut tighter than a bull's as at fly time no matter how much CAPE there is... 

but, maybe we just need an exceedingly high convective threshold ?  

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22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what are the soundings like ?

just the physical observation (satellite) and sfc obs together give the appearance of CAP/CIN'ed shut tighter than a bull's as at fly time no matter how much CAPE there is... 

but, maybe we just need an exceedingly high convective threshold ?  

Here is a point-and click from western CT from the 12z NAM NEST:

2018080712_NAMNST_009_41.58,-73.22_sever

 

Here is from one central-ish ME

2018080712_NAMNST_004_45.59,-68.67_sever

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56 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not as impressed down this way anymore. I think we'll see some storms but a bit of dry air above 850 and just meh wind fields. Ample CAPE though and some inverted-v looks...maybe we can muster up a few stronger storms. we'll see.

Tomorrow night NAM NEST has a decent line move through here though 

 

28 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Not much CIN out there now that we're like 90/75 lol

Some storms - and maybe an isolated wet microburst given about 1200 j/kg of DCAPE. 

I think down SNE way it's going to be more of the typical "air mass" type thunderstorms (though there is a little bit of a convergence zone from N NJ into W MA). Given the forecast soundings any of those air mass storms could drop a wet microburst like Ryan said.

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