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General Severe Weather Discussion 2018


weatherwiz
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3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Watch the mesolow/warm front tomorrow....

Models are showing a fantastic chance for rain showers and thunderstorms tomorrow late morning into the early afternoon hours.  Possible chance at a tornado as well as potential for damaging winds, over 58mph.  Even the models show convective wind bursts near 5omph in a line of storms that develop south of Long Island around 8am tomorrow morning.  They develop into SNE and head into Cape Cod with damaging wind potential.  If I was the SPC I would highlight a slight risk for SNE, especially east of a Hartford, CT to Springfield, MA line.

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4 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Models are showing a fantastic chance for rain showers and thunderstorms tomorrow late morning into the early afternoon hours.  Possible chance at a tornado as well as potential for damaging winds, over 58mph.  Even the models show convective wind bursts near 5omph in a line of storms that develop south of Long Island around 8am tomorrow morning.  They develop into SNE and head into Cape Cod with damaging wind potential. If I was the SPC I would highlight a slight risk for SNE, especially east of a Hartford, CT to Springfield, MA line.

No Slight as yet, but they did highlight that area for Marginal wind/tor risk. Still might get upgrade to Slight in the morning, definitely possible... But I think I agree with leaving things at Marginal til morning, it avoids any chance of having to do a messy backtrack/downgrade if tomorrow starts looking, well, marginal again. Personally I've hardly had the time tonight to look at models for myself, so I must defer to your and their better judgement...

We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We don't often get these kind of multiple-day streaks of successive severe weather threats here in southern NE, but this was actually hinted at quite well by the GFS well over a week ago. I remember thinking I was seeing an awful lot of chances for Northeast severe showing up, most of them at the very end of its range, past the time we normally consider the Goofus to be useful, but damned if that hasn't panned out as advertised... Maybe not in the specifics, but definitely as a trend and pattern. Bring it on!

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Meh. Just been threw one. It’s all fun n games until your neighbor says he was home with his 6 month old, hid in a closet, and feared for their lives as trees came crashing down all around, one on his roof. I’m just getting the time to cut the maple that fell in the front, today. Unnecessary stress and work for a few minutes of a weather weenie rub n tug. But I get it, I still rub a few out to hurricanes. 

The power of these things is surreal up close though. Seeing videos or pics doesn’t even do it justice. 

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32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Meh. Just been threw one. It’s all fun n games until your neighbor says he was home with his 6 month old, hid in a closet, and feared for their lives as trees came crashing down all around, one on his roof. I’m just getting the time to cut the maple that fell in the front, today. Unnecessary stress and work for a few minutes of a weather weenie rub n tug. But I get it, I still rub a few out to hurricanes. 

The power of these things is surreal up close though. Seeing videos or pics doesn’t even do it justice. 

Was there a confirmed tornado in CT yesterday?

i know some of the cells were close...haven’t yet checked BOX info

I want nothing to do with them.  I have no idea how people can live in an area where they are common.  I would lose it.

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17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Was there a confirmed tornado in CT yesterday?

i know some of the cells were close...haven’t yet checked BOX info

I want nothing to do with them.  I have no idea how people can live in an area where they are common.  I would lose it.

Not sure, was speaking about the May 15 Southbury to Oxford CT tornado that went right overhead. I prob had a better chance of winning Mega Millions...safe to say I will never experience that again living here. 

As weather nerds, we appreciate the awe of fascinating events, but sometimes lives are lost. Like the guy in Danbury who was mowing his lawn and for some reason didn’t seek shelter in time so he hid in his truck....then a tree fell on it, killing him. 

I think that’s one advantage I/we have being a weather hobbyist. I can warn the wife to not leave work with severe approaching or to leave a bit earlier in the morning if snow incoming, etc, just being more pinpoint on details then the average guy. I mean, it has to have an advantage, otherwise the wife would think all this posting is pointless. 

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A significant low is developing over NJ and PA this morning seen on visible satellite imagery.  This will enhance low-level turning in the atmosphere and allow the potential for destabilization across the region east of the I95 corridor.  Tornado and damaging winds seem likely threats, while tornadoes are a less likely threat at this time, but winds could be strong to damaging as low enhances low-level jet.

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I tell you what, there have been some really interesting cloud features down here this morning. I watched a few suspicious lowerings out over the Sound from the top of East Rock, and when I came home a very pregnant black cloud came right over me with an impressive area of vertical motion and a tight cyclonic motion. Didn't drop anything, but probably a good thing we didn't get more destabilization this morning. Sky actually reminded me a lot of the Revere tornado when it went over my office. I still remember seeing that thing come down for about twenty seconds before disappearing into the rain.

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I tell you what, there have been some really interesting cloud features down here this morning. I watched a few suspicious lowerings out over the Sound from the top of East Rock, and when I came home a very pregnant black cloud came right over me with an impressive area of vertical motion and a tight cyclonic motion. Didn't drop anything, but probably a good thing we didn't get more destabilization this morning.

Stay safe.

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