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General Severe Weather Discussion 2018


weatherwiz
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57 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Just had a cloud to ground strike very close by and the storm is gone wth:!!!!!! Now I know why they say lightning can strike far away from the storm...

the CG's on the backside are the worst b/c they're typically +CG strikes (I believe) which are the most dangerous. But that's exactly what happened here. I'm still freaked out. 

I parked my car on the street in front of my house and as I get out I hear thunder off to the west-southwest and I wondered if something else popped. I checked the radar and saw it was (guess anyways) from a cell over Middletown. I debated on taking up the trash can but figured I'd do it later since I have to go back outside. 

I walk into my house and as soon as I close the door I saw an incredibly bright flash which lasted a couple seconds and instantly heard the crash. The house shook. I sort of peered out windows to see if I could notice anything hit but didn't see anything. I tried going outside a few times but as soon as I stepped foot outside I ran back in. After I'm done working I'll take a walk around. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

the CG's on the backside are the worst b/c they're typically +CG strikes (I believe) which are the most dangerous. But that's exactly what happened here. I'm still freaked out. 

I parked my car on the street in front of my house and as I get out I hear thunder off to the west-southwest and I wondered if something else popped. I checked the radar and saw it was (guess anyways) from a cell over Middletown. I debated on taking up the trash can but figured I'd do it later since I have to go back outside. 

I walk into my house and as soon as I close the door I saw an incredibly bright flash which lasted a couple seconds and instantly heard the crash. The house shook. I sort of peered out windows to see if I could notice anything hit but didn't see anything. I tried going outside a few times but as soon as I stepped foot outside I ran back in. After I'm done working I'll take a walk around. 

Just read positive strikes can happen 20 to 30 miles away from the storm.. Definitely had to be that.. pretty cool learn something every day Thanks Paul :)

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My friend from Walpole, NH took some video from the July 28th. He was really intrigued by some lowering on the right hand side. The aspect of this time lapse with the amazing look of the structure begins around 26 seconds

 

He also said in the photo that if you look at the lowering on the risk you see something dark lurking in the rain and was wondering if that could have been the beginning of the microburst? 

 

38434133_1477322202368562_89145486797931

 

He also mentioned a few things about the damage...said that the trees on County Rd fell in the opposite direction than the trees on Kingsbury Rd. He said when he was on Barnett Hill he felt a wind shift as well...I think that 

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11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

My friend from Walpole, NH took some video from the July 28th. He was really intrigued by some lowering on the right hand side. The aspect of this time lapse with the amazing look of the structure begins around 26 seconds

He also said in the photo that if you look at the lowering on the risk you see something dark lurking in the rain and was wondering if that could have been the beginning of the microburst? 

He also mentioned a few things about the damage...said that the trees on County Rd fell in the opposite direction than the trees on Kingsbury Rd. He said when he was on Barnett Hill he felt a wind shift as well...I think that 

That was the beginning of the cell that turned into the bow that raced across most of southern NH. Looks like a fairly classic evolution from a HP supercell into a bowing complex.

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Had a couple of scans of 20 knots Vr shear, but NROT pretty meh on it. 

The terminal radar at JFK picked it up quite well! Saw Ryan’s tweet and I also learned something on Radarscope! You can do a capture of the animation. So I played with it and was able to see what Ryan posted. Wish it would let me upload it but I can only do 1.95mb ughhh. I’ll figure something out 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The terminal radar at JFK picked it up quite well! Saw Ryan’s tweet and I also learned something on Radarscope! You can do a capture of the animation. So I played with it and was able to see what Ryan posted. Wish it would let me upload it but I can only do 1.95mb ughhh. I’ll figure something out 

TJFK did have a great view. Maybe even a little donut in reflectivity. 

TDWR data can be a bit noisy/jumpy, but there was definitely a pretty solid 50 knot delta V anyway.

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10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

TJFK did have a great view. Maybe even a little donut in reflectivity. 

TDWR data can be a bit noisy/jumpy, but there was definitely a pretty solid 50 knot delta V anyway.

Guess there’s some damage reports right where that couplet was. Numerous trees and wires downed 

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Queens, wow, wasn't expecting that! I wasn't even watching the radar after the daylight stuff moved thru... Thought it was all over. Kinda stunned, actually... Completely missed it.

 

That said, there were small-scale spin-ups along the southern fringe of the day's convection all along, Ansonia was just the most prominent of several examples... Assumed there was a boundary down there along the coast, probably seabreeze related... So I shouldn't really be surprised. Interesting stuff!

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tomorrow looks very interesting for SNE. That triple point tracks right across the region. With all the shear in place, add in a little extra turning with the low and high dews, low lcl’s.. I’d expect some nice looking cells 

Guidance is all over with that. And then you have to see if that’s overdone too. But yeah, could be interesting if things go right. 

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The potential is certainly intriguing and certainly needs to be watched. It's such a difficult forecast and I have had several people ask me about tomorrow with some people traveling and having outdoor activities. 

Does anyone remember a similar type of setup several years back? Want to say like 2012 or 2013 or something? Not the day that produced the tornadoes (I don't think we had any this day) but an MCV tracked like right over CT but it happened just a bit too early (late morning) and we weren't able to sufficiently destabilize. But even like strong convective showers had weak rotation lol.

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