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General Severe Weather Discussion 2018


weatherwiz
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8 hours ago, ROOSTA said:

It's been what seems like an eternity since I posted last.
Greetings, hoping all are in good spirit and health.
The last three months I've been in/out of the hospital. Third time is the charm. I'll tell ya nursing is one of the most  understated, unappreciated needed jobs in the world. I was there so long became friends with many on a first basis. Three surgeries a bypass and stent with my toes still in jeopardy of the knife, figure a new lease on life. Since moving here I've gone from 270 to my low of 150lbs. Pain is relative and only taking pain killers as needed. Opioids scare the ba-gee-bees out of me so I enrolled for cannabis (fingers crossed) no addiction and works better. 


From the news reports today I see many experienced some severe weather, clips of flooded streets and downed trees. I miss New England! The daily thunderstorms here compared to there frankly can't compare. I've had to reevaluate the meaning on severe. Torrential rain, visibilities to feet, down-bursts, outflow boundaries with (40-50mph) gusts just about everyday, 3-6pm like clockwork. It's the lightning that's truly unbelievable with earth-shaking window rattling booms, simultaneous flashes and crackling.
Don't know about anyone else but....
BRING ON WINTER!   

Donnie Baseball! Welcome back, heal well my good friend and if you are ever up here give me a shout.

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8 hours ago, ROOSTA said:

It's been what seems like an eternity since I posted last.
Greetings, hoping all are in good spirit and health.
The last three months I've been in/out of the hospital. Third time is the charm. I'll tell ya nursing is one of the most  understated, unappreciated needed jobs in the world. I was there so long became friends with many on a first basis. Three surgeries a bypass and stent with my toes still in jeopardy of the knife, figure a new lease on life. Since moving here I've gone from 270 to my low of 150lbs. Pain is relative and only taking pain killers as needed. Opioids scare the ba-gee-bees out of me so I enrolled for cannabis (fingers crossed) no addiction and works better. 


From the news reports today I see many experienced some severe weather, clips of flooded streets and downed trees. I miss New England! The daily thunderstorms here compared to there frankly can't compare. I've had to reevaluate the meaning on severe. Torrential rain, visibilities to feet, down-bursts, outflow boundaries with (40-50mph) gusts just about everyday, 3-6pm like clockwork. It's the lightning that's truly unbelievable with earth-shaking window rattling booms, simultaneous flashes and crackling.
Don't know about anyone else but....
BRING ON WINTER!   

Florida does thunderstorms right. I really hope your health takes a turn for the better. You need to enjoy your oasis

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Act II was much the better.  Only got a measly 0.04" from the early afternoon line, then 0.76" between 9 and 10 PM, with nearly all (0.65? 0.7?) coming in the first 15 minutes.  Meh lightning, 1-2 flashes/min, none closer than 8 seconds, but my first opportunity to watch at night.  July precip now 1.90", about 90% of average.

For Roosta:  In October 2007, a month before turning 56, my wife had emergency double bypass surgery - we had less than an hour to worry ahead of time, probably a good thing.  She had essentially no complications - a 2-second A-fib 2 days later that she didn't even feel but that brought nurses on the run.  (And you are so right about that profession!)  Nearly 11 years later there have been no heart issues; can't ask for more than that.  Hope your results are similar.

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.78" up here.  Fell over a 3 or 4 hour period.  Just a dark morning with a flash of lightning every once in a while.  Really needed the rain.  Have not had a bonafide T storm yet this year.  A couple of flashes here and there.   The period coming up looks interesting, lots of tropical downpours and T storms..

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6 minutes ago, HimoorWx said:
Preliminary results have determined that there was an EF-0
Tornado that briefly touched down west of Ashford Lake. Peak winds
were estimated between 80 and 85 mph with an approximate width of
225 yards. The length of the tornado path was about 0.4 miles
long and on the ground for approximately 1 minute. The tornado
touchdown time was around 4 pm.
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16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Too bad DMX doesn't launch balloons.

But the model forecasts didn't suck.

2018071918_NAM_003_42,-92.94_severe_ml.p

I mean really dude.. .did you see those videos? 

I don't think I've ever seen that ... I mean, obviously we've all seen couched mesos before, but those were all independent CB bases and everyone had the finger of god... some of which didn't even have rain shafts!  Just ...tornado up into a TCU

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean really dude.. .did you see those videos? 

I don't think I've ever seen that ... I mean, obviously we've all seen couched mesos before, but those were all independent CB bases and everyone had the finger of god... some of which didn't even have rain shafts!  Just ...tornado up into a TCU

I mean 0-3km helicity near 400, and 0-3km CAPE over 200 J/kg. Add in a moderate overall CAPE environment and you had some intense updrafts to draw that helicity into the vertical.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean 0-3km helicity near 400, and 0-3km CAPE over 200 J/kg. Add in a moderate overall CAPE environment and you had some intense updrafts to draw that helicity into the vertical.

I was at the NE storm conference back in ... geez '97 oh ... man... Anyway, Howard Bluestein was talking about helicity environments so intense that storms can do this.. .it's cool to see it live like that.  But the CU 'zygote' structures are initially rotating ... fascinating. 

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was at the NE storm conference back in ... geez '97 oh ... man... Anyway, Howard Bluestein was talking about helicity environments so intense that storms can do this.. .it's cool to see it live like that.  But the CU 'zygote' structures are initially rotating ... fascinating. 

I was at that conference

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4 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

I was at that conference

I was the one in the crowd that raised hand and asked if there was any correlation between tornado intensity as it relates to visible vortex diameter.   He exclaimed it was a brilliant question - It's about the only thing in college I did worth a schit - heh...

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There is alot of focus on tomorrow morning (and for good reason obviously) but the afternoon and evening can't go without mention. Some indications are there could be a decent-sized area of rather steep low-level lapse rates early tomorrow afternoon. It's going to be quite breezy tomorrow but if we can muster up decent CAPE (like 1200-1500) which is very possible given those steep lapse rates and high llvl moisture/high theta-e it won't take much for some wet microbusts tomorrow. 

Also for the morning...pretty decent H5 jet max progged to arrive very early. If that can time with some convection things may be interesting somewhere. 

To point out...this is all low probability stuff but the potential is certainly there and it's worth noting 

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