weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2018 Author Share Posted July 15, 2018 11 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice boom and light show. Wiz dropped the ball, completely missed this. Not really. Watched it for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 8 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Not really. Watched it for a few days. Usually you James rapid post if clouds approach the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 15, 2018 Author Share Posted July 15, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Usually you James rapid post if clouds approach the state. it sucks I haven’t had the time to really post the past few years but next year that should be different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 Maybe depressed of the lack of activity post May TOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Maybe depressed of the lack of activity post May TOR. Yeah it's been pretty dead outside of like one or two other decent events but they were mostly north of here. I didn't even get the chase (so far) to do any chasing around. When my friend was down late May/early June there was nothing at all in the Northeast and the couple days there have been stuff I was working. But we'll see what happens next spring. If this job becomes full time I'll get a week of paid vacation and I won't have school to deal with anymore either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 No chance of anything decent Wednesday? 3k NAM looks to bring a decent line through associated with a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: No chance of anything decent Wednesday? 3k NAM looks to bring a decent line through associated with a cold front. You mean Tuesday? Tuesday looks decent. I think we could see potential for a few embedded wet microbursts but I'm wondering if flash flooding will be the biggest concern...even with relatively dry grounds. PWATS surge to >2.5'' ahead of the front and the front becomes aligned parallel to the upper-level flow so that will really slow things down. Despite the poor lapse rates high dewpoints should help with decent updrafts and any pockets of stronger heating and steeper low-level lapse rates will help with the localized potential for strong-to-damaging wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: You mean Tuesday? Tuesday looks decent. I think we could see potential for a few embedded wet microbursts but I'm wondering if flash flooding will be the biggest concern...even with relatively dry grounds. PWATS surge to >2.5'' ahead of the front and the front becomes aligned parallel to the upper-level flow so that will really slow things down. Despite the poor lapse rates high dewpoints should help with decent updrafts and any pockets of stronger heating and steeper low-level lapse rates will help with the localized potential for strong-to-damaging wind gusts. Ugh thanks yes Tuesday my bad. The sooner the dews are gone the happier I am lol hoping for a good storm when that happens too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 Hopefully some rains tomorrow for everyone. As usual in convective season there will likely be haves and have very littles when you get a line of storms Unfortunately it doesn’t look overt damaging or severe as the parameters are fairly meh in SNE. Probably a few isolated gusts and trees down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hopefully some rains tomorrow for everyone. As usual in convective season there will likely be haves and have very littles when you get a line of storms Unfortunately it doesn’t look overt damaging or severe as the parameters are fairly meh in SNE. Probably a few isolated gusts and trees down frcst up here is anywhere from 0.25" to 2"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: frcst up here is anywhere from 0.25" to 2"+. CAMs have a pretty solid line moving through the area in the afternoon tomorrow. So at the moment it is looking like a widespread wetting rain, but maybe not widespread 2" stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: CAMs have a pretty solid line moving through the area in the afternoon tomorrow. So at the moment it is looking like a widespread wetting rain, but maybe not widespread 2" stuff. Where does the line form is my worry back here in Central NH. Looks good further SE but Im worried that Im too far NW to get into the heaviest stuff. So many fronts have had bad timing up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Where does the line form is my worry back here in Central NH. Looks good further SE but Im worried that Im too far NW to get into the heaviest stuff. So many fronts have had bad timing up here. My gut feeling is that if you miss the line, it's because you got nocturnal leftovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: CAMs have a pretty solid line moving through the area in the afternoon tomorrow. So at the moment it is looking like a widespread wetting rain, but maybe not widespread 2" stuff. good. Maybe I'll throw down next round of fert tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: My gut feeling is that if you miss the line, it's because you got nocturnal leftovers. nocturnal emissions are never good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: nocturnal emissions are never good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 50 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: CAMs have a pretty solid line moving through the area in the afternoon tomorrow. So at the moment it is looking like a widespread wetting rain, but maybe not widespread 2" stuff. yeah I think torrential downpours is greater threat than severe...there will be some wind damage and such but nothing atypical than what we usually get from these setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 27 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: yeah I think torrential downpours is greater threat than severe...there will be some wind damage and such but nothing atypical than what we usually get from these setups And such? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: And such? it's a phrase. there'll be pockets of wind damage...maybe even an isolated area of widespread damage if there happens to be a microburst. Most of the downed trees will probably be rotted trees that Bambi pissed on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: yeah I think torrential downpours is greater threat than severe...there will be some wind damage and such but nothing atypical than what we usually get from these setups Both the NAM and GFS are hinting at a H7 jet of around 50 knots in the prefrontal trough region (up in NNE) during the afternoon. That could make things a little more interesting than an isolated severe set up. But freezing levels near 14,000 ft and mean flow generally parallel to the front will definitely mean heavy rain for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Both the NAM and GFS are hinting at a H7 jet of around 50 knots in the prefrontal trough region (up in NNE) during the afternoon. That could make things a little more interesting than an isolated severe set up. But freezing levels near 14,000 ft and mean flow generally parallel to the front will definitely mean heavy rain for some. NNE definitely has a shot at something more interesting than down this way. NNE also closer to the better jet dynamics at 500. Seems like we sort of crap out the dynamics down this way as the afternoon progresses. Strongest height falls also look to occur across NNE. Maybe SE NH or SW ME could be in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 47 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: it's a phrase. there'll be pockets of wind damage...maybe even an isolated area of widespread damage if there happens to be a microburst. Most of the downed trees will probably be rotted trees that Bambi pissed on These super wet cells have a pretty good propensity for micro bursts. There will definitely be areas of wind damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 16, 2018 Share Posted July 16, 2018 Slight risk for portions of the region. Hope everyone likes their microbursts wet and sloppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 16, 2018 Author Share Posted July 16, 2018 39 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Slight risk for portions of the region. Hope everyone likes their microbursts wet and sloppy. Pretty impressed by the 12z guidance on the look of the squall line. i still think it ends up fizzling as it propagates down into SNE but the slight risk area looks good for a few microbursts. Despite the decent CAPE/low-level moisture down this way I think the weakening upper-level dynamics hurt...also...I wonder if a more westerly sfc wind perhaps knocks the potential down a bit down this way? But we'll see what happens and whether the mid/upper level dynamics lacking become a player. This is the exact topic I am doing for senior research and I gotta get this going ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 Quite the difference between the NAM and NAM Nest. The later has decent (for our standards) mid-level lapse rates but gets much more heating and as a result has very steep low-level lapse rates along with backed llvl flow. Moderate cape too and great shear. Would suggest a decent wind damage event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 Latest hi-res is really interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 Well both the HREF and HRRR are showing QPF amounts today on the order of 5+ inches for their max areas. So that is keying on the potential for someone today. Maybe another SW NH area flash flood day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 I'm liking Southern ME and SW NH and Central MA for today, Not sold up here on anything severe but won't rule out some strong storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 17, 2018 Share Posted July 17, 2018 pwats approaching 2.5. If we can slow the steering to around 20kt, watch out for outdoor pets flowing down rivers and streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2018 Author Share Posted July 17, 2018 Would anyone mind posting the observed 12z soundings for Albany and OKX? Not loading on my phone for some reason. Although I’ll be headed to work soon. I might even be able to chase today depending on how long this meeting goes and I get my forecasts done!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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