Typhoon Tip Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: You’re absolutely right, with heights rising there is a window here. It’s really edge of the EML or bust. Certainly low 60s dewpoints won’t cut it today. That's the best way to describe it, yeah. I guess a race of sorts. Seems at least spatially as though the NAM and the like ...they must be hedging the EML outpaces the suppression before it really gets impossible to penetrate. What a f*n behemoth of a ridge though... that thing is a marvel to watch. We close off a 594 dm node nearby, then... it grows! Expanding to envelop such a large area, while painfully slowly, it regrogrades... Not before the week is claimed in Hades. Whatever we get over the then 24 hours, it seems that might be it until this thing breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Convection starting to fire in extreme Upstate NY. On its current heading it would be coming through the White Mtns. Are the upper level winds such that as the complex moves east it tends to round the bend and move more south or would it stay on its due SE course? Some CAMs have even shown a SW movement towards the highest CAPE. With a lack of strong forcing it may end up being more of a CAPE eater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 I’ve got my eye on convection west of Ottawa. That’s firing on the leading edge of lift from the MCV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 10 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I’ve got my eye on convection west of Ottawa. That’s firing on the leading edge of lift from the MCV. Now that I can loop the NNY convection it seems to be moving more ESE. I'll focus more on what is upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Now that I can loop the NNY convection it seems to be moving more ESE. I'll focus more on what is upstream. My guess is the N NY stuff is tied to the advection of the EML. Kind of percolating at the edge of the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 Got a laugh out of BTVs updated 733pm AFD .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 733 PM EDT Saturday...Well, it`s been a facepalm kind of evening in regards to the convective potential as we`ve been waiting and waiting and waiting for something to fire, but alas, nothing really did. After perusing all the available data, our trusty SOO dug deep into the forecast soundings and found ONLY the FV3 showed a slight break in the cap this afternoon which is exactly when a few isolated storms developed. After that, the cap just returned and we`ve been quiet ever since. So with that in mind, I`ve backed way off on the t-storm potential overnight, but did leave in very low chance PoPs along the Canadian border as there are a few showers trying to get going, though they probably just won`t. Rest of the forecast remains unchanged for Sunday and Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 Mm. Never liked the heights climbing the ladder in this. We were intrinsically going the wrong way with major backdrop indices while relying on one or two to compensate - you get what you buy. we'll see if any nocturnal radiative cloud top cooling can help punch any holes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 Quite the light show on the cell by Berlin. It's continuous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 Just got a tornado warning on it actually 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 Looks like a few storms were able to get going... but not many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said: Quite the light show on the cell by Berlin. It's continuous. That was visible down in Wells, ME. Checked the radar and was surprised. Expected it to be much closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 1 hour ago, eekuasepinniW said: Quite the light show on the cell by Berlin. It's continuous. Took a video of it. Incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 13 hours ago, yoda said: Got a laugh out of BTVs updated 733pm AFD That didn’t work out so well. Storms were quite widespread after midnight. Definitely no enhanced risk, but we probably had G40 at 3 AM when the main MCS blew through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 11 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said: Quite the light show on the cell by Berlin. It's continuous. 9 hours ago, alex said: Took a video of it. Incredible It was a nice show. I was shooting that cell in NH, then caught another nice one just north of Belgrade around 1:30 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 There was an mcs last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 23 minutes ago, qg_omega said: There was an mcs last night? A pretty good light show, non-severe though. Storms lined up from at least BTV to BGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 Any damage from that tornado warned cell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 31 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Any damage from that tornado warned cell? It had hail, so probably some wind somewhere. Otherwise, I doubt there was any tornadic damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 Only had 0.05" last night and like 7 miles north had over an inch. Multiple reports in N/NE VT of over 2" of rain last night. Must've really lit up overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted July 1, 2018 Share Posted July 1, 2018 Screen grab from last night's backyard storm chase with a friend. I shot this video from Starr Farm beach on Lake Champlain! So magical with the bullfrogs croaking and the fireflies flashing, along with the beautiful sound of thunder rolling over the lake. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 2, 2018 Share Posted July 2, 2018 Obviously a bit early but the NWS likes our chances for some severe this coming Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 2, 2018 Share Posted July 2, 2018 On 7/1/2018 at 10:13 AM, OceanStWx said: It was a nice show. I was shooting that cell in NH, then caught another nice one just north of Belgrade around 1:30 AM. That one included a ground-shaking blast at our place that reduced our dog to a quivering ball of terror, but had little rain. Then 75 minutes later came a quieter TS that brought most of the 0.48" I dumped out of the gauge at 7 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted July 2, 2018 Share Posted July 2, 2018 Just now, tamarack said: That one included a ground-shaking blast at our place that reduced our dog to a quivering ball of terror, but had little rain. Then 75 minutes later came a quieter TS that brought most of the 0.48" I dumped out of the gauge at 7 AM. Glad your getting some rain. Every night its all to my north. Friday fropa looks too early for any severe here in C NH but still 4 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 2, 2018 Share Posted July 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Glad your getting some rain. Every night its all to my north. Friday fropa looks too early for any severe here in C NH but still 4 days away June ended with 90% of average, and since it's my 2nd rainiest month (5.30", 0.35" less than OCT), that meant significant rain. Getting 2"+ from 6/28 to 7/1, immediately in front of very warm temps, puts the garden into high gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2018 Author Share Posted July 2, 2018 Look at this sounding across SE ND tomorrow evening lol. Going to be some vicious supercells tomorrow. Over/under the largest hail size either reported or able to be estimated via radar? I'll go with 4.50'' EDIT: Although the mid-level shear isn't particularly strong enough to support that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 2, 2018 Author Share Posted July 2, 2018 Just noticed something...on the bottom left of the hodo there is something that says critical angle. What does that refer too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 2, 2018 Share Posted July 2, 2018 i approve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 7 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Look at this sounding across SE ND tomorrow evening lol. Going to be some vicious supercells tomorrow. Over/under the largest hail size either reported or able to be estimated via radar? I'll go with 4.50'' EDIT: Although the mid-level shear isn't particularly strong enough to support that You'll like this one from northeast Iowa a few days ago. Not sure if it verified lol. And the low-mid level flow isn't terrible for such an unstable forecast sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 3, 2018 Author Share Posted July 3, 2018 Holy ****..that's like top 5 highest CAPE I've ever seen modeled lmao. I think a few times I've seen like 12,000 modeled across IA before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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