TheCloser24 Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 KNYC AFD: BUFKIT profiles show some veering within first 10 kft above surface, S-SW for Long Island, NYC and more SE-SW to the north with stronger magnitude, more bulk shear. Total bulk shear 35-40 kt from 0-6km. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and during the day this will become more surface based and increase to 1500-2000 J/kg. Certainly some potential for a few thunderstorms to be strong with a marginal risk for severe weather across much of the region for local damaging winds and a brief tornado possible where there is the most veering of low level winds and highest helicity, particularly parts of the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 I love mornings like this. It is one of life's simple pleasures to sit under the eaves with a cup of joe and look out over the slate-gray water, listening to the gradually rising grumble of approaching thunder and the occasional sibilant puffs of wind through the trees. Good stuff. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Well the NAM, ARW, and NMM all have a pretty nice bow developing in Canada and moving into parts of NNE Saturday night. That EML plume does advect into the region, and both the NAM and GFS have at least a subtle shortwave (GFS more subtle) gliding down through ME. I'd be more inclined to lean towards the D word, except that relative inflow into the convection weakens as the ridge builds in and mid level flow becomes more northerly than westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 The other key difference, the NAM has dewpoints in VT of 77 Saturday, the GFS 67. So that makes a difference of 4500 J/kg or 1000 J/kg. I would say a split of the difference, leaning towards low 70s dews is a fair forecast and more than enough to generate some strong convection Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Fun to look at but may be a fantasy, the NAM has IZG at 79/72 with 3400 J/kg CAPE. At 03z Sunday! But that is about the magic number T/Td to sustain a nasty bow overnight in these parts. The July 1995 derecho, SYR was 82/76 just ahead of it. July 4/5 1999 saw a lot of near 80/near 70 readings (IZG 80/68, LCI 79/70, etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 2 hours ago, OceanStWx said: The other key difference, the NAM has dewpoints in VT of 77 Saturday, the GFS 67. So that makes a difference of 4500 J/kg or 1000 J/kg. I would say a split of the difference, leaning towards low 70s dews is a fair forecast and more than enough to generate some strong convection Saturday night. I see chance probs in the grids for staurday night, Be interesting to see if something gets going if it can stay together to the coast coming out of the NW or we get 7-10'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 I see SPC has gone slight risk Central and Northern ME and marginal for Southern Maine for Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Holy loud thunder. It's pitch black to my West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 12 minutes ago, alex said: Holy loud thunder. It's pitch black to my West Might even have a little hail in it. Freezing levels are a little high (13.8 kft on the 18z special RAOB), but I would say some dimes possible in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Might even have a little hail in it. Freezing levels are a little high (13.8 kft on the 18z special RAOB), but I would say some dimes possible in that. It did. Fairly large chunks but not a lot of them. Pretty wild wind and thunder though. And now we have no power. Grrrrr.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 1 minute ago, alex said: It did. Fairly large chunks but not a lot of them. Pretty wild wind and thunder though. And now we have no power. Grrrrr.... Might have melted off all the small stuff and only left the larger stones as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 I like trends on the CAMs so far today. Pretty high confidence for this range (1 in 3 or 1 in 2 chance) of at least a compact bowing segment moving through parts of NNE. Could be a nice short duration, high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 29, 2018 Author Share Posted June 29, 2018 Could be quite interesting tomorrow night across NNE...NAM Nest has shown a decent looking squall line for a few runs. This is WAY out there but next weekend could have some big potential if we can get things to time properly and get an EML advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Looks like we may catch a piece of that cell here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 Looks like we may catch a piece of that cell here We missed out on a cell that went over sebago.Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 29, 2018 Share Posted June 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: We missed out on a cell that went over sebago. Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Was meh, Some lightning and a few rumbles, 0.26” in the tipper though in 20 mins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 Not meh here for sure. Just finally got my power back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 11 hours ago, alex said: Not meh here for sure. Just finally got my power back That was a stout cell that went thru your area earlier, The one here we just got clipped by ias it tracked off tom my ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 SPC goes with enhanced for NNE later today/tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: SPC goes with enhanced for NNE later today/tonight. I just saw that. Wonder if we can get an MCS to dive more southward than southeastward and get us in the Lakes Region? I doubt it but will have to watch upstream this PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 38 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I just saw that. Wonder if we can get an MCS to dive more southward than southeastward and get us in the Lakes Region? I doubt it but will have to watch upstream this PM Sign me up for things going south. We had our share last night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 30, 2018 Author Share Posted June 30, 2018 Derecho composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: I just saw that. Wonder if we can get an MCS to dive more southward than southeastward and get us in the Lakes Region? I doubt it but will have to watch upstream this PM New cell growth should tend to grow towards the CAPE axis, which will be in your direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 Looks like several MCVs rounding the ridge, so any of them is really a threat to trigger new MCS. SPC likes the middle one, but that convection is currently weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 The middle MCV definitely put out some good gravity waves, so a potent feature for sure. The lead MCV really stabilized parts of Ontario, you can see no Cu at all once the debris cleared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 On 6/29/2018 at 11:05 AM, OceanStWx said: The other key difference, the NAM has dewpoints in VT of 77 Saturday, the GFS 67. So that makes a difference of 4500 J/kg or 1000 J/kg. I would say a split of the difference, leaning towards low 70s dews is a fair forecast and more than enough to generate some strong convection Saturday night. If it's any help... here we are 24-hours later and the GFS verified somewhat too wet at KMPV, KRUT ... KVSF... Those NWS are putting up upper 50s to 64-ish type numbers... So far, we'll see if it surges toward dark. One thing I've been toying with in my mind re the heat potential down our way has been... "If" the NAM proves too robust with those sequential MCS' serving to pool/processed air mass helping to goose the GOM PP and thus, sending a pseudo BD down our way might be in trouble I mean you know this crap ...just sayn' I'll tell ya, it's a fascinating albeit tedious course work, but these hot air masses come with all kinds of angles for exploratory cause/effect relationships, huh - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If it's any help... here we are 24-hours later and the GFS verified somewhat too wet at KMPV, KRUT ... KVSF... Those NWS are putting up upper 50s to 64-ish type numbers... One thing I've been toying with in my mind re the heat potential down our way has been... "If" the NAM proves too robust with those sequential MCS' than the pooling/processed air mass helping to goose the GOM PP and send a pseudo BD down our way might be in trouble I mean you know this crap ...just sayn' I'll tell ya, it's a fascinating albeit tedious but these hot air mass come with all kinds of angles for exploratory cause/effect relationships, huh - Yeah, the moisture is definitely pooling along the warm front vs south. 70 dews up at SLK, but upper 50s at ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, the moisture is definitely pooling along the warm front vs south. 70 dews up at SLK, but upper 50s at ALB. I have to be honest... one thing that's a head scratcher for me is the fact that the heights are ballooning like the cap cloud over an h-bomb detonation. We learned in 102 (ish) met that when heights rise ...that tends to limit convection... Then later of course, we learn about DVM and NVA and all the fun stuff thats come with ridges... But, the impetus being, this is a rising/growing/burgeoning ridge scenario... This is not a static one that features geostrophic W/NW flow aloft under a torrid DP jet below... So, what am I missing... I guess to be fair, we are not really transporting much strobe lightning, rain/hail this far S... But, that axis that runs from eastern Ontario/lower Quebec to off shore Maine might be "too lit up" ...and that's creating an unlikely lvl cold pulse into coastal lower New England...? Maybe the GFS' coarser resolution and different overall convective sequencing is dumb luck in this case ? Oh boy ... we'd love to see that though..down our way. A couple Met friends and I were discussing that in a separate circuit, just how long it has been since we've seen one of those NW-SE moving MCS over NH at night...where it's insane lightning and 'vil crawlers that terminate into wild positive multi-pulsers. In the 1990s there were a few of those.. It's like it's been once in 20 years now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I have to be honest... one thing that's a head scratcher for me is the fact that the heights are ballooning like the cap cloud over an h-bomb detonation. We learned in 102 (ish) met that when heights rise ...that tends to limit convection... Then later of course, we learn about DVM and NVA and all the fun stuff thats come with ridges... But, the impetus being, this is a rising/growing/burgeoning ridge scenario... This is not a static one that features geostrophic W/NW flow aloft under a torrid DP jet below... So, what am I missing... I guess to be fair, we are not really transporting much strobe lightning, rain/hail this far S... But, that axis that runs from eastern Ontario/lower Quebec to off shore Maine might be "too lit up" ...and that's creating an unlikely lvl cold pulse into coastal lower New England...? Maybe the GFS' coarser resolution and different overall convective sequencing is dumb luck in this case ? Oh boy ... we'd love to see that though..down our way. A couple Met friends and I were discussing that in a separate circuit, just how long it has been since we've seen one of the NW-SE moving MCS over NH at night...where it's insane lightning and 'vil crawlers that terminate into wild positive multi-pulsers. In the 1990s there were a few of those.. It's like it's been once in 20 years now.. You’re absolutely right, with heights rising there is a window here. It’s really edge of the EML or bust. Certainly low 60s dewpoints won’t cut it today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 30, 2018 Share Posted June 30, 2018 Convection starting to fire in extreme Upstate NY. On its current heading it would be coming through the White Mtns. Are the upper level winds such that as the complex moves east it tends to round the bend and move more south or would it stay on its due SE course? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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