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General Severe Weather Discussion 2018


weatherwiz
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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Here's a question I've always had but never found an answer. On bufkit in the hodograph section, on the bottom left of the hodograph there is an output for Cape and Helicity...does anyone know what level the Cape is measured in? is it surfaced-based (I'm guessing it is not sfc-based output) mixed-layer, or most-unstable? If i had to guess I would guess mixed-layer. I even tried playing with the llc values on the right to see if that would adjust Cape values but it only does so with helicity 

I believe it is outputting CAPE in the same layer you are calculating shear. So if you have 0-6 selected, it's CAPE in that layer.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I believe it is outputting CAPE in the same layer you are calculating shear. So if you have 0-6 selected, it's CAPE in that layer.

That's what i was thinking but the value doesn't seem to change when you adjust the level. Unless for some odd reason it's the same CAPE values at each level lol. I'll try a different model too...was just using the 15z HRRR for BDL

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12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This sucks...my camcorder's dead and i can't find my charger. I won't have time after work either to go buy one and then get to BDL from Branford before the storms come :angry: Maybe I'll just go to a golf course in WeHa or something. 

There’s a good chance there’s no storms at either place :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a good chance there’s no storms at either place :lol:

nah I think we'll see a line of thunderstorms move through the state. Just a few embedded strong-to-severe thunderstorms (particularly west and north-central CT). We have stronger flow working in aloft, decent height falls, the instability. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

nah I think we'll see a line of thunderstorms move through the state. Just a few embedded strong-to-severe thunderstorms (particularly west and north-central CT). We have stronger flow working in aloft, decent height falls, the instability. 

I dunno. Everything looks widely scattered. I don’t see anything indicating a line . Head to NW Mass 

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I dunno. Everything looks widely scattered. I don’t see anything indicating a line . Head to NW Mass 

the HRRR, NAM Nest, and RPM all been pretty consistent with a line (perhaps broken) moving through the state. Best chance for any severe is certainly up around NW MA though but I definitely won't make it there. I might not even be able to make it to BDL b/c traffic from HFD to BDL at 6:00 when I get into HFD area will be horrific. Unless I take back roads from WeHa to Bloomfield and catch 91 there

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RAP/HRRR continue to really suggest enlarging hodographs as we move into the evening as stronger winds aloft move in. Also looks like a surge of higher theta-e air moving into western areas with a push of higher low-level moisture. that could help keep instability up there even for a few hours after sunset. Too bad lapse rates are awful but if some cell can get some updraft enhancement it will have lots to work with. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

RAP/HRRR continue to really suggest enlarging hodographs as we move into the evening as stronger winds aloft move in. Also looks like a surge of higher theta-e air moving into western areas with a push of higher low-level moisture. that could help keep instability up there even for a few hours after sunset. Too bad lapse rates are awful but if some cell can get some updraft enhancement it will have lots to work with. 

They sure do.

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8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

They sure do.

It's really becoming quite intriguing, especially when you take into account the consistency hi-res models have on activity moving into the state...this coincides with combination of best shear/instability (well maybe weakening instability but still sufficient). 

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

With moist low levels and steep low level lapse rates, you do get buoyancy in those lower levels for stretching/mix down potential. So while mid level lapse rates would be nice, we don't need 40+ kft towers for strong storms today.

Yeah good point...these low-level lapse rates are quite steep so won't take much for strong wind gusts. Even some Td's of 71-73 not far SW...that alone will help compensate a bit for crappy mid-level lapse rates.

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Quote

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Gray ME
300 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018

The National Weather Service in Gray Maine has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  South central Coos County in northern New Hampshire...
  Northeastern Grafton County in northern New Hampshire...
  North central Carroll County in northern New Hampshire...

* Until 330 PM EDT.
    
* At 300 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Bethlehem, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Lincoln around 320 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Hart's
Location, Carroll and Livermore.

This also includes...
  Crawford Notch State Park, North Twin Mountain, Mount Eisenhower,
Mount Garfield, and Mount Isolation.

 

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TOR warning for Lincoln, NH and environs - storm looks to be coming straight down Rt 116 from Kinsman's Notch.  Would losing 1,000+ ft elev in a dozen miles keep a funnel from touching ground, or have no effect?

Nice line of showers moving into central Maine from the mts, though all the pretty colors separated and went N & S of the home front - doubt if we got more than a tenth or so.

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2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

TOR warning for Lincoln, NH and environs - storm looks to be coming straight down Rt 116 from Kinsman's Notch.  Would losing 1,000+ ft elev in a dozen miles keep a funnel from touching ground, or have no effect?

Nice line of showers moving into central Maine from the mts, though all the pretty colors separated and went N & S of the home front - doubt if we got more than a tenth or so.

It may intensify it as it stretches and tightens. 

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