OceanStWx Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Poopy diapers > tornado survey... Was part of the survey from the air? i was re-reading this thread from the 4th...wild night. No. They note part of it was inaccessible. 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 35 miles would be the second longest on the ground in NH after 2008...I think Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 All I can see from the radar data, is a broken S signature. But I'm not sure I would ever warn on the velocity couplet there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 I'm pretty sure there's a climate signal for early morning clouds/rain thunder and humidity followed by midday clearing prior to severe weather events in southern new England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: No. They note part of it was inaccessible. Yes. Yeah I’m no expert on this stuff but when I saw that “part of it was inaccessible” I asked myself, “then how can you say continuous”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm pretty sure there's a climate signal for early morning clouds/rain thunder and humidity followed by midday clearing prior to severe weather events in southern new England That all misses us. We may start with mid level clouds , quickly clearing by mid AM. This is mainly pike south threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2018 Author Share Posted May 15, 2018 This year is reminding me of 1998!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 39 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah I’m no expert on this stuff but when I saw that “part of it was inaccessible” I asked myself, “then how can you say continuous”? "Nearly continuous" Meaning it wasn't continuous. The story I've heard is that all the trees were mainly down to the NE or E, with a few to the NW. So in my opinion, either it was a tornado where the few to the NW were, OR this was straight line wind with a few randomly tossed trees based on local factors of tree weaknesses, etc. I mean it's all possible. The environment was fair for QLCS tornadoes, mainly west of NH, so it's not crazy that one happened. But 35 mile long one? Of course the beam is 11,000 ft above radar level near the CT River (about 9,000 ft from ENX) and still over 7,000 ft in Merrimack Co. These types of tornadoes are unlikely to be very deep mesos, but a long track one certainly would be (a la NH 2008). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 As for tomorrow, the HREF has a nice swath of pretty siggy updraft helicity tracks from eastern NY to western New England. I think I would lean more towards a strong focus near the warm front vs. an exact location based on the CAMs right now, but it's a nice signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This year is reminding me of 1998!!!! Best derechos that year, and the only high risk ever in NE. Hope you're right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2018 Author Share Posted May 15, 2018 25 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: "Nearly continuous" Meaning it wasn't continuous. The story I've heard is that all the trees were mainly down to the NE or E, with a few to the NW. So in my opinion, either it was a tornado where the few to the NW were, OR this was straight line wind with a few randomly tossed trees based on local factors of tree weaknesses, etc. I mean it's all possible. The environment was fair for QLCS tornadoes, mainly west of NH, so it's not crazy that one happened. But 35 mile long one? Of course the beam is 11,000 ft above radar level near the CT River (about 9,000 ft from ENX) and still over 7,000 ft in Merrimack Co. These types of tornadoes are unlikely to be very deep mesos, but a long track one certainly would be (a la NH 2008). How often do you see QLCS tornadoes track that long of a distance? It’s extremely rare...especially around these parts. Remember the day of the fake Rolland tornado? There was a series of tornadoes which was counted as multiple tornadoes but in realty it was just one cell which produced multiple times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: Best derechos that year, and the only high risk ever in NE. Hope you're right! Wiz was 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wiz was 2 His sig says he's 27. Anyway, it probably resides in his memory the way July '89 does for me (I was 5 then), and I still remember the Hamden tornado pretty vividly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 15, 2018 Author Share Posted May 15, 2018 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wiz was 2 I was 9 and I remember that summer like it was yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: How often do you see QLCS tornadoes track that long of a distance? It’s extremely rare...especially around these parts. Remember the day of the fake Rolland tornado? There was a series of tornadoes which was counted as multiple tornadoes but in realty it was just one cell which produced multiple times? They could under the right conditions. 2008 was a hybrid QLCS of sorts (began as a lone supercell). It is possible it produced multiple tornadoes with wind damage in between, but QLCS tornadoes tend to be brief, and regenerate to the S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Foggy AM drive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I lived through the 1980 ... at the time "F3" tornado that bored a tunnel right down the heart of Kalamazoo Michigan. In fact, ...my home was literally 6 standard city blocks (.5 miles) south of the vortex' closest pass and could be heard.. The reason I mentioned earlier in the thread, there may be a climate signal for morning showery rains/thunder ...clearing, followed by a severe threat toward later afternoon and evening ... is because I have seen a particular synoptic evolution related to that behavior play out, time and time again. It happened on that faithful day, May 11 1980.. It happened more recently on June 1, 2011. There are also many under the radar events, ... pun most certainly intended, such as June 10 1987, and the compact destructive derecho event that raged havoc down the Mohawk Trail all the way to Boston's N. Shore. And, out of pure moral obligation to historical facts transcending the horror of fiction, June 9 and a set up that led to the incredible "F4" (which is a distinction available to a goodly session of debate in my mind considering the concrete slabbing left in its wake..) that struck Worcester in 1953. What did all of these have in common? There was some kind of warm frontal passage in the morning hours, followed by opening ceilings and a huge gulp of diabatic heating straight into a pooled theta-e/rich atmosphere that because of circumstance of being near-ish a warm frontal curved trajectory of winds... set up an SRH anomaly. This type of setting is quick conducive to rotating updrafts... a key component in organizing sustaining convective structures as many of us know. Throw in some lapse rates/height falls (even subtle) ...with a mid level evacuation/divergence (acceleration .. wind max/short wave...etc..) and tornado testicles with furies hangin to the floor! That's certainly true in the Plains...but, we obviously have other physical parametrics to consider...such as ... backed winds gulping in LI cool stablizing ocean influence... topographical this that and other thing... It's an intriguingly well timed set up when comparing the current obs and predictive measures against histories... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I know from memory that Memorial Day weekend can fire up good severe in western NE but this threat is as seasonally early as anything I can recall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Cyclone-68 said: I know from memory that Memorial Day weekend can fire up good severe in western NE but this threat is as seasonally early as anything I can recall? There has been a few. We had a decent event in early 2013 that produced a weak tornado in Stoughton. We also had a good one Mem weekend 2009 that produced 2" hail in Duxbury. I actually saw the stones on the ground and grabbed a pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 There's also the freak EF1 on 2/25/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 5/8/09 there was a tornado in Sunderland that picked up a tobacco barn and deposited it across the road. It was embedded in a heavy rain event... definitely not your classic severe set up. Much like 2/25/17 these type of events don't really count per the question that was asked... As far as moderate to strong instability events this early I can't remember too many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There has been a few. We had a decent event in early 2013 that produced a weak tornado in Stoughton. We also had a good one Mem weekend 2009 that produced 2" hail in Duxbury. I actually saw the stones on the ground and grabbed a pic. Come to think of it that severe thunderstorm I had two years ago in FEBRUARY is still one of the most amazing things I’ve seen happen. Just hoping a lot of folks get a good show today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 33 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: I know from memory that Memorial Day weekend can fire up good severe in western NE but this threat is as seasonally early as anything I can recall? We already had pretty high end severe in NNE up this way 10 days ago with that Tornado Watch. Hail, severe wind damage, tons of power outages, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 Hard to believe today's forecast given its 60* with a very cool breeze coming through the windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We already had pretty high end severe in NNE up this way 10 days ago with that Tornado Watch. Hail, severe wind damage, tons of power outages, etc. And a long track EF1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I started a thread for this since Wiz is too busy filling out his lineup card Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 I moved most of today's posts into Hubbs Thread. Unfortunately, I moved posts that were from before he started it so the earliest post gets the thread credit. @CT Rain is the winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted May 15, 2018 Share Posted May 15, 2018 1st wave was a dud. not a drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 17, 2018 Author Share Posted May 17, 2018 Gotta watch Monday/Tuesday timeframe too. Potential may be just west of here but something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 On 5/17/2018 at 3:02 PM, weatherwiz said: Gotta watch Monday/Tuesday timeframe too. Potential may be just west of here but something to watch Maybe some elevated convection for Long Island/ part of the south coast late Tuesday night/ early Weds morning as MLCAPE ramps up. Too bad we couldn't muster any instability tomorrow during the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2018 Share Posted May 21, 2018 Memorial Day itself looks like a very active day with HHH ahead of the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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