CT Rain Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I was actually looking at RH fields and 5H temps. Same though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 Not bad...probs of 0-1km helicity >= 150 m2s2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: I will be in the Danbury area b/c I'm doing my charter broadcast but as far as going chasing doubt it. I'm hanging out with someone tomorrow. TOR warnings will be flying like Red Sox wins in the Great Barrington area tomorrow. Meanwhile Wiz is in a cafe in Danbury futilely whispering sweet nothings to a nubile coed while Sarah Mclachlan warbles faintly in the background. What a fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, TheBudMan said: TOR warnings will be flying like Red Sox wins in the Great Barrington area tomorrow. Meanwhile Wiz is in a cafe in Danbury futilely whispering sweet nothings to a nubile coed while Sarah Mclachlan warbles faintly in the background. What a fail I don't really have the time anymore to just go out and chase. If we get a setup on a day when I'm free I'll do it but if not it's whatever. I'm not really upset about it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 I don't think I've ever seen a 9 C/KM 700-500 lapse rate in the northeast before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 Quite impressed by the 18z NAM thus far. Even looks a bit more backed with sfc flow. Hodos are not as straight...actually long and curved. Looks like (guessing maybe warm front?) some boundary is like right overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Thinking about going to work early tomorrow.. then leaving early for the fun.. would love to see tornado number 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 NE PA that's a hodo. imagine if there was more of a backed sfc flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 The key for parts of WNE is how much clearing we get in the wake of the morning shortwave. The NAM does have subtle height rises and subsidence following it, so that could suppress cloud cover and provide some insolation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 14, 2018 Author Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: The key for parts of WNE is how much clearing we get in the wake of the morning shortwave. The NAM does have subtle height rises and subsidence following it, so that could suppress cloud cover and provide some insolation. It also seems on days with EML advection we clear out not only rather easily but clear out quite nicely. That's just probably b/c of the degree of mid-level dry air associated with it though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The key for parts of WNE is how much clearing we get in the wake of the morning shortwave. The NAM does have subtle height rises and subsidence following it, so that could suppress cloud cover and provide some insolation. Yeah the timing actually looks favorable for some nice clearing midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 36 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It also seems on days with EML advection we clear out not only rather easily but clear out quite nicely. That's just probably b/c of the degree of mid-level dry air associated with it though lol. Well that's the thing. The EML has plenty of dry air, so if you can have some mechanism to suppress clouds (like subby) it should clear out. But if you keep weak height falls or something like that the low level moisture can just percolate at the bottom of that layer. All models have those subtle height rises tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Not sure anyone mentioned, but May 4th has been confirmed as an EF1 in NH 36 mile path. Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Not sure anyone mentioned, but May 4th has been confirmed as an EF1 in NH 36 mile path. Sweet Wow - where'd you see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: Wow - where'd you see that? http://www.wmur.com/article/nws-confirms-tornado-touched-down-in-nh-earlier-this-month/20688101 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 I haven’t seen anything from Gray confirming this though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Wow - where'd you see that? I call BS. I was warning operator that day, and I can buy a tornado near the CT River. The beam is like 7-8 kft there, easy to miss a low level QLCS tornado. But a 36 mile (4th-ish longest New England tornado), I don't think so. My guess (hope?) is that WMUR confused a statement about the length of thunderstorm wind damage with the smaller tornado path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Not the most telling metric ...admittedly, but I don't like the way that hashing for Enhanced risk terminates abruptly where it does on the eastern extent. That just smells like right turning clusters doing that pac-man thing of gobbling toward the source of latent heat inflow while areas NE eat anvil light CAPE-killer rains and occasional orange lightning. And that tends to prove these hashed regions as being NE biased as a standard correction too.. I don't ever ever recall severe verifying N and E of an SPC hashing in this part of the country ... seemingly always the other way. We'll see. Hope I'm pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 I still see no statement on the Grey site or Twitter or FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 2 hours ago, TheBudMan said: TOR warnings will be flying like Red Sox wins in the Great Barrington area tomorrow. Meanwhile Wiz is in a cafe in Danbury futilely whispering sweet nothings to a nubile coed while Sarah Mclachlan warbles faintly in the background. What a fail Or to his friend’s dad while nude hot tubbng. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Gray PNS https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GYX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 35 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I call BS. I was warning operator that day, and I can buy a tornado near the CT River. The beam is like 7-8 kft there, easy to miss a low level QLCS tornado. But a 36 mile (4th-ish longest New England tornado), I don't think so. My guess (hope?) is that WMUR confused a statement about the length of thunderstorm wind damage with the smaller tornado path. 000 NOUS41 KGYX 142212 PNSGYX PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 600 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 The National Weather Service (NWS) in Gray Maine has completed a survey of damage from the storm that affected western New Hampshire during the evening on May 4th. Based on the ground survey, the NWS has determined that the damage was caused by a tornado. The tornado initially touched down in the extreme southeastern corner of Charlestown near Fall Mountain Regional High School and then tracked for about 35 miles east- northeastward to near Route 127 in Webster. While portions of this path were inaccessible, nearly continuous damage was observed as it crossed roadways along the path. The most significant damage was observed in the Town of Warner where winds are estimated to have gusted to between 80 and 100 mph, giving the tornado an E-F1 rating. A more detailed public information statement will be issued Tuesday. $$ Jensenius National Weather Service Gray, Maine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 000 NOUS41 KGYX 142212 PNSGYX PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 600 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 The National Weather Service (NWS) in Gray Maine has completed a survey of damage from the storm that affected western New Hampshire during the evening on May 4th. Based on the ground survey, the NWS has determined that the damage was caused by a tornado. The tornado initially touched down in the extreme southeastern corner of Charlestown near Fall Mountain Regional High School and then tracked for about 35 miles east- northeastward to near Route 127 in Webster. While portions of this path were inaccessible, nearly continuous damage was observed as it crossed roadways along the path. The most significant damage was observed in the Town of Warner where winds are estimated to have gusted to between 80 and 100 mph, giving the tornado an E-F1 rating. A more detailed public information statement will be issued Tuesday. $$ Jensenius National Weather Service Gray, Maine Huh, how'd that fly under the radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 12 minutes ago, Hoth said: Huh, how'd that fly under the radar... I think there was some confusion as to what was tornado vs straight line but I’ll leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think there was some confusion as to what was tornado vs straight line but I’ll leave it at that. I just downloaded the radar data, but I'll go to my grave not believing this is a 35 mile long tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 And if it is a 35 mile long tornado, there should be no BS "a more detailed PNS will be issued Tuesday." Someone should be on that ASAP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: I just downloaded the radar data, but I'll go to my grave not believing this is a 35 mile long tornado. The things that go on when the boss is away..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The things that go on when the boss is away..... Poopy diapers > tornado survey... Was part of the survey from the air? i was re-reading this thread from the 4th...wild night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 18z 3 km NAM had a number of long tracking semi discrete cells across much of the Northeast, including a very strong one crossing the entirety of NH and VT. Difference this time compared to most NE setups is that we have the thermos, especially the thermos aloft, in place almost unquestionably (barring convection tonight). If those surface winds can take more of a SSW (or even SW) component tomorrow afternoon, there's liable to be tornado problems given the degree of low level instability and moisture along with very strong deep layer shear for bowing segments and supercells. It would be nice to perhaps have a bit more of a pronounced shortwave, but I'm rather impressed nonetheless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 35 miles would be the second longest on the ground in NH after 2008...I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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